RE: The Fat controller is driving the wrong train....21 Sep 2021 13:39
Sandal
What you fail to recognise is that Wressle only has 260k bbls of proven reserves in this reservoir.
The oft quoted figure is 560k bbls, which is the 2P or P50 case. 50% chance that its less than this number, 50% chance its higher. Whilst it's good for early cash flow to get high rates, it does mean that the field has a shorter life and the decline is greater. So at least theoretically (but not in reality) producing at 844bbls/day means the proven reserves will be produced in
10 months, and the probable reserves in less than 2 years. Of course reality is that the field flow rate will decline along with the pressure and thus take longer. But it does put into context the lifetime cashflow profile for the field..this is not a long term asset throwing off material cash for a long period...
The question then is the production from the other reservoir, the cost to drill a well for that, and what that one will flow at, as well as how do they deal with the gas...
Unless the new CPR changes the recoverable numbers, which it may, it's too soon to suggest that this is some kind of long term cash cow for the company...