Member Info for RNSTranslator

Mr I
You sound like a man who’s losing faith in his investments and the ability of “professional management” to deliver the multibagger you crave… that’s because they never do… the shareprice chart tells you all you need to know… promise the Earth, raise money, deliver no appreciable return other than for traders and placing flippers…repeat as necessary for as many years as you can get away with…

So you admit your beaten a second time… classy!

Rubey,
You admit defeat… you have no rational response.
‘Nuff said.

Rubey: if you think it’s desperate, explain why. Rather than just make a statement as if it’s a fact rather than argue your case…or is it that you can’t?

Jimbo:” If this was a duster they would have quickly been onto the next drill as planned“
if this well didn’t flow or had limited flow , (and we don’t know yet whether it did or not) why on Earth would they go and try testing the other well?
Same reservoir, same depth, same column height…
Just assuming for a moment they decided to do this Even if they did and that well flowed , all it would confirm is that the reservoir is so variable that some areas will flow and some areas don’t…and exactly how do you work out which areas will and will not…

McNumby
“Anyone who states they'd waste money testing nothing is a liar.”
The reality is you only really know if you’ve wasted money when you have the final results, so after taking at least twice as long as they said, they’ve said very little, and no flow rates have been mentioned. Do you think they’ll give up quickly if it’s not quite what they hoped for , or would they keep trying until either they got an acceptable result or have tried everything they can for as long as it takes. To try and get the result they want. A less than commercial result is something I believe they will do anything to avoid…whatever time (cost ) it takes to try and achieve it.
Of course it may have been very successful and they’re just saving it up for a mega RNS or perhaps they’re struggling to establish a commercial flow rate… take your pick.

Rubey,
Please point to where the RNS's contradict what I've put...These numbers are from the companies themselves...
Are you suggesting these are wrong??

Mr I
Welcome onboard.
Love to see you find a post where I said Wressle would NOT produce at 500 bbls/day.
I think you are confusing that with "it may or it may not" - a bit different don't you think?
To be frank the fact that it did seems to have made no difference to the share price of any of the participants.. why is that do you think...
So are you going to join in the banter here or are their too many numbers??

Nice try Rubey...may want to stop digging.
The cash accumulation you refer to is no more than about £2-2.5 mm per year from Wressle, the rest of the portfolio revenue is about £500k (EOG June 21) that's before the costs of running EOG - usually about £800k.
So assuming the don't spend money on anything else they could probably accumulate about £1.7-£2mm over 12 months.
What exactly will that buy you in the North Sea Rubey?.. I'd suggest about 2/3rds of Bgger all.

Rubey
Clearly you've never been involved in offshore acquisitions. Are you suggesting they have enough cash to do this and won't need to raise?
What you suggest is that they acquire a small % of an as yet undeveloped asset for free by just paying some of the operators past costs, which means that the asset itself is, by that calculation worth nothing?? Why would someone give you a share of the asset for a refund of part of what they've already spent, other than if
1: They don't think its worth anything so lets get some sunk costs back.
2: They can't afford or are unable to develop the field themselves so will give away some of it to folks who can?

Just accept that your idea is a rather poor attempt to try and get folks to think an offshore acquisition can be made without dilution (either via cash raise or new equity)... that's simply not credible.

Serif: I think your right on the "North Sea late stage Appraisal/Development asset." SO was keen to push.
As far as I know they don't give them away for free, so the options are:
1: Cash purchase - Equity Fundraise (possibly with a bit of debt). Can't see how else they make a cash acquisition.
2: Acquisition for EOG shares: ie. A share issue.

Who would accept shares in EOG for a late stage appraisal/development asset? Certainly not one of the bigger companies.
Perhaps an unlisted company looking for a backdoor float?
So it'd probably be a smaller private company with a late stage Asset... who's got one of those they want to unload??
Someone on the Board might know...!
Look out guys, you're gonna pay over the odds in shares (well its not real money is it!) for an exciting "transformational" opportunity... and maybe a new CEO to boot... any one else want a stab at this??
Answers on a postcard please...

Bridgedogg: "Also Wressle was on 24 hour test production for some time, shame we dont know the flow rate but assume it was around 100bopd."
Thats true, but what would the net revenue to EDR be from that? Average Brent price from first flow is about $65.
Production $6500/day gross. Opex $9/bbl based on 500/bbls/day that's $4500/day gross
Net Revenue $2000 per day
EDR share $600/day £432 per day. - hardly makes difference.

Yugo: Yes they had £2.4mm in the bank at the end of JAN (not end APRIL as you claim, that was the date the interims were published) , so why did they need to raise £1.4mm in June? Clue: because they'd spent a most of that £2.4mm in the mean time.

Yugo thats a 12 month cashflow forecast.
If you actually look at Egdons reports, you can see that their income from 145bbl/day was only £1mm that's because those assets do not have a high margin and some of it is gas, plus the price was lower. That had dropped to 92 barrels per day and a net income of £400k. I've assumed £500k from just half this latter production amount to reflect higher oil and gas prices.
You are assuming that all the other stuff is a profitable as Wressle, which it clearly isn't. Your number suggests that the non wressle production will contribute £1.5mm in addition, that's just not credible nor does it match Egdons own April forecast of about 170bbls/day, including Wressle, which was already producing at an unknown rate when they made it. You may not like to hear it but all the stuff I've listed is from Egdons own releases and website...of course they don't spell it out in such clear terms do they...as a potential investor you have to do that yourself.
The UJO payment is due 18 months from Nov 20, which is by May 2022, 9 months from now.

Struggling with the ramp -eh...
So do you still contend that Egdon can drill Biscathorpe, Keddington and pay their share of the 3D and all the other stuff they say they're going to (not forgetting the Ceres abandonment costs of £2.4mm) can they do all or any of thiswithout raising any more funds? Yes or NO.

Yugo
Whilst its good news for EDR,(failure to deliver would have been terminal) the muted response is not surprising, given the broader financial issues they have.
A quick calculation of net cashflows from wressle at $67/bbl and $9/bbl opex. and 500/day Gross 0.72 USD/GBP. and 350 days/year production and no decline
Year 1 £2.2mm net
EDR production guidance in April was 110-130 for the Full year. H1 was 92 bpd, so H2 must be about 170bbls/day to make their forecast work.
Thats an only additional 20 bbls/day over and above Wressle, which seems a bit light so lets assume its 40bbls/day from the rest which fits with previous declines from 145bbls/day previous FY and 92bbls/day H1 . 145 gave net revenues of £1mm, 92 gave $400k. Prices have risen since then so lets say gross revenue from the rest is £500k
Free cash calculation for the coming 12 months:
So gross revenues £2.7mm (2.2 W +0.5 others)
Less Calmar £0.4 - £2.3
Less Admin £1mm (Last years figure) - £1.3mm
Less UJO repayment £1.1mm (inc Interest) - £0.3mm
So there is no free cash for drilling Biscathorpe, Keddington and the other ventures...
In addition they have to pay for 15% of the Shell 3D survey @ $5mm = £500k in Feb 22.
Also Ceres abandonment liability on the books for about £2.4mm which is probably due 23/24.

Can't see how there isn't another raise needed on the back of this good news...

Flatboy
You really are lost.
The value of this licence right now is less than zero, unless it gets drilled and it actually finds commercially producible oil .
In fact its actually worth -£160k plus the rest of the time and money they have spent getting it to this point> £160k is the amount the are still obligated to spend, total spend lets say -£250k.
So what are the chances of success?
there is no empirical method, so these are just estimates.
Chances of someone coming in to drill the well for them <10% (they've tried and go no response, but of course the incoming party would also want a much larger share of the licence for doing that... this would have been likely be in the 70% range, see Egdon f/o to Shell)
What are the chances that this well will find commercial oil? <10%
So there is no profit and loss, and the chances of getting to a point where potential profit can be accurately calculated are 1%.
Corallian had the choice: 1% chance that spending £80k might deliver some future value or give someone 9% of your share to pay your remaining £80k share. No brainer, and it tells you that this block is dead in the water.
This was always going to be difficult to create value from... environmentally sensitive area, close to the coast, the big boys won't touch this stuff at the moment given the anti Oil and Gas sentiment.
This actual deal was a good deal for Corallian, although it only saved them spending £80k, to date the company has spent I think about £6-7mm and has absolutely nothing to show for 99% of that expenditure, the RBD investment in Corallian is in my view a series of disappointing outcomes, and it all now hangs on Victory... and that a whole different debate about potential value..

Flat Earth Man (or Woman)
You are starting to look like you really don’t have a clue.
So here’s what the deal is on the Corallian/Baron issue.
Dunrobbin is a sub surface concept developed by the partnership in a licence they applied for from the OGA, it is not a oil accumulation , it might be but until it’s drilled it’s just an idea.. To get the licence they had to offer to undertake certain work, which they are obligated to do. They got the licence and tried to interest other companies to pay for further work to be done and presumably drill a well at their cost. One sizeable company was interested but declined to progress any deal. This left the three of them with a licence that they couldn’t farm out (ie get someone else to pay for the drilling) but they still had to carry out the work they presume missed the OGA. It would appear that Corallian and upland didn’t want to spend money on this work but it seems Baron do. So Baron agreed to fund all the remaining work of £160k I think in return for a share of C and U’s share. So they have given Baron 9% of their interest in return for them paying ax’s share of these costs. It seems unlikely this will get drilled by anyone else (nobody has offered) and if they want to see it drilled they will need to do this themselves (and pay for it). Track record to date is not good..dry hole, drilled in wrong place, sidetracked to the wrong place, blocks all relinquished. To my mind they’ve saved 45% of £160k which will probably be a good decision..,

"Ok RNS, lets put it another way. With the running costs involved do you think they would bother unless they´ve got something worthwhile ?"
Put another way , with failure not a palatable outcome, don't you think they would try absolutely everything they can to try and make it work, until either they run out of options or it flows?

The fact it’s taken twice as long as planned , does mean of course the cost is getting on for twice as much. Did David say that the more it costs is also a good sign* ?

* an indication of £hings to come..

So the fact it’s taken twice as long as they said, is that a good sign? (Notice I just presented the facts this time so you can answer)

“ Remember, DB has said the longer the EWT the better, ”
So if it takes 6 months will that be a good sign?