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CPR Report

Microsoft CoPilot, Could the date appear to depress Mendell’s perceived value?

Yes — absolutely. But that is a side effect, not an intention.

Here’s why:

• The CPR must ignore the Rost well’s production

• The CPR must treat Mendell as pre discovery

• The CPR must classify only prospective resources

• The CPR cannot assign contingent resources

• The CPR cannot assign reserves

• The CPR cannot assign dollar valuations

• So the CPR ends up looking more conservative than the real situation.

• This can feel like the CPR is under representing Mendell’s value — but it is simply following the rules.

Why a company might prefer a conservative CPR (but not manipulate it)

A conservative CPR:

• Reduces regulatory risk

• Reduces liability for the Competent Person

• Makes AIM admission smoother

• Avoids accusations of over promotion

• Sets a low baseline for future upgrades

So while the CPR date is not chosen to depress value, the conservative nature of CPRs often results in:

“Under promise, over deliver.”

This is common in natural resources.

In Plain English

No — the CPR date was not chosen to depress Mendell’s value. But the CPR’s rules force it to ignore the Rost well’s production, which makes the CPR look more conservative than reality.

This is why your instinct is correct: The CPR understates Mendell’s true position — but not because of manipulation.

RKB

PS OK Mickey1122 I will not post anymore today, you will have missed the AI (Microsoft CoPilot’s answer for a re-rate % value based on a question I posed, but I am sure you don’t mind what it says, suffice to say it is a lot more than 4p

CPR Report

Microsoft CoPilot, Was the CPR dated 1 January 2026 to “depress” the market perception of Mendell’s potential worth?

Short, direct answer: No — CPRs are never dated strategically to depress or manipulate market perception. The date is chosen for regulatory, procedural, and audit reasons, not for market optics.

But the effect of the date can absolutely create the appearance of being behind the curve — and that’s what you’re noticing.

Let me break this down clearly and honestly.

1. CPRs must be dated at a point where all data is “frozen”

A CPR is a legal document under:

• AIM Rules

• PRMS/SPE standards

• Competent Person professional liability

The Competent Person must choose a date where:

• All data is final

• All logs, maps, and interpretations are complete

• No new information is pending

• No future events can contaminate the analysis

This is called the Effective Date.

It is not chosen for market impact — it is chosen for auditability.

2. A CPR cannot include information that occurs after the Effective Date

If the Rost well began producing in December 2025, and the CPR’s effective date is 1 January 2026, then:

• The CPR is not allowed to include that production

• The CPR must treat Rost as non producing

• The CPR must ignore any post December developments

• The CPR must base its conclusions on pre 2026 data only

This is a strict rule, not a choice.

RKB

CPR Report

A producing well gives Mendell:

• A proven helium system

• A proven reservoir

• A proven flow

• A proven commercial gas stream

This strengthens:

• The CPR narrative

• The admission document

• The valuation justification

• The institutional investment case

AIM prefers companies with proven assets, not pure exploration.

7. Market Perception Changes Overnight

A producing well shifts Mendell from:

“Interesting helium explorer” to “Proven helium producer with scalable upside”

This is the same shift that re rated:

• Avanti

• Royal

• DME

The market rewards certainty, not potential.

8. In Plain English

If the Rost well is producing post CPR:

• The CPR becomes conservative rather than defining

• The geological model is validated

• The engineering model is validated

• The commercial model is validated

• The valuation moves from risked to unrisked

• Mendell’s peer group shifts upward

• AIM admission becomes stronger

• Investor confidence increases

• The first new well becomes appraisal, not exploration

It is a major derisking event.

RKB

CPR Report

5. Valuation Framework (Point A) Changes Completely

With a producing well:

A. GCoS becomes 100% for the discovered zone

Risked NPV = Unrisked NPV.

B. The valuation shifts from “risked explorer” to “early producer”

This moves Mendell into the valuation range of:

• Avanti

• Desert Mountain Energy

• Total Helium

C. The market cap comparison (Point C) changes

Mendell is no longer comparable to:

• Helium One

• Helix

• Noble Helium

It moves into the higher value peer group.

D. The drill outcome model (Point B) changes

The “Success Case” becomes the base case, not the upside case.

6. AIM Admission Case Strengthens Dramatically

RKB

CPR Report

3. Helium Concentration Becomes Known (Commercial Risk Collapses)

If the Rost well is producing, then Mendell has:

• Real gas composition

• Real helium %

• Real nitrogen %

• Real impurities

• Real processing requirements

This is transformational because helium % is the biggest economic sensitivity in Point A.

Impact

• No more guessing helium %

• No more analogue based assumptions

• Economics become quantifiable

• NPV becomes anchored

• Market uncertainty collapses

This is the difference between “possible value” and “measurable value”.

4. The First Well Becomes a “Discovery Well” (Resource Classification Changes)

The CPR cannot classify contingent resources because no discovery existed at the time.

But a producing well is a discovery.

Impact

• Prospective resources → Contingent resources

• Contingent resources carry much higher valuation multiples

• The project becomes “real” in the eyes of the market

• Future wells move from “exploration” to “appraisal/development”

This is the same step that transformed Avanti, Royal, and DME.

RKB

CPR Report

POINT D — Impact of the Rost Well Producing Post CPR

The CPR treats the Rost well as non producing, because at the CPR’s effective date it was non producing. But if the Rost well began producing in December 2025, that has major implications for Mendell’s valuation, risk profile, and market positioning.

This section explains exactly how.

1. The CPR’s Geological Model Becomes “Proven” Instead of “Probable”

The CPR assumes:

• Valid source

• Valid migration

• Adequate reservoir

• Effective trap

• Adequate pressure

A producing well confirms all five.

Impact

• Geological Chance of Success (GCoS) jumps dramatically

• Prospective resources become partially de risked

• The basin model is validated

• The CPR’s conservative assumptions become real world facts

This is the single biggest shift in valuation.

2. Flowing Gas Confirms Deliverability (Engineering Risk Collapses)

The CPR’s engineering section is built on analogue based modelling. A producing well replaces modelling with empirical data.

Impact

• Flow potential is no longer theoretical

• Pressure regime is confirmed

• Permeability is confirmed

• Decline behaviour becomes predictable

• The CPR’s P50/P10 flow assumptions become anchored in reality

This moves Mendell from “pre drill explorer” to “proven deliverability”.

RKB

CPR Report

5. How This Feeds Into Valuation (Link to Point A)

Success Case

Mendell re rates toward:

• Avanti

• Pulsar

• Desert Mountain Energy

Partial Success

Mendell re rates toward:

• Helium One

• Helix

• Noble Helium

Low Case

Mendell trades like:

• Early stage explorers with technical success but weak commerciality

This is why Point C is essential before we move to Point D.

6. In Plain English

Point C tells you:

Where Mendell sits today, who its real peers are, and how the market will benchmark it after the first well.

It is the comparative map you need before we incorporate the Rost well in Point D.

RKB

CPR Report

4. Where Mendell Sits in This Landscape

Mendell’s CPR positions it as:

A. Lower risk than the high speculation explorers

• Better geology

• More conservative CPR

• Simpler engineering

• Lower CAPEX

B. Earlier stage than the companies with producing wells

• No discovery well yet

• No flow test yet

• No contingent resources yet

C. More credible than many AIM peers

• CPR is technically strong

• Geology is straightforward

• Economics are realistic

• No “blue sky” assumptions

D. Stronger than typical pre drill explorers

Because:

• The CPR is conservative

• The geology is robust

• The economics are viable

• The risk profile is moderate, not high

RKB

PS Obviously ignore the “no discovery well”

CPR Report

Pulsar Helium

• Stage: High grade discovery

• Strength: Exceptional helium %

• Weakness: Remote location, high CAPEX

• Comparison to Mendell:

o Pulsar has higher upside

o Mendell has lower execution risk

RKB

PS Pulsar Helium has about 180 million shares and Market capt of almost £170 million.

CPR Report

TSX V Peers

Avanti Helium

• Stage: Discovery + flow testing

• Strength: Proven helium system

• Weakness: Needs CAPEX for plant

• Comparison to Mendell:

o Avanti is ahead on development

o Mendell has lower CAPEX and simpler geology

Royal Helium

•

• Stage: Multiple wells + processing plant

• Strength: Infrastructure

• Weakness: High CAPEX, dilution

• Comparison to Mendell:

o Royal is more advanced

o Mendell has cleaner balance sheet and lower execution risk

X

Desert Mountain Energy

• Stage: Discovery + plant construction

• Strength: High helium %

• Weakness: Execution delays

• Comparison to Mendell:

o DME is more advanced

o Mendell has lower geological risk and lower CAPEX

Total Helium

• Stage: Producing wells in Hugoton

• Strength: Existing production

• Weakness: Debt + operational complexity

• Comparison to Mendell:

o Total Helium is ahead operationally

o Mendell has cleaner structure and lower financial risk

RKB

PS Avanti Helium has about 125 million shares and Market Capt of CAD $70 million.

Royal Helium has about 377 million shares and Market Capt of CAD $20 million.

Desert Mountain Energy has about 96 million shares and Market Capt of CAD $41 million.

Total Helium has about 103 million shares and Market Capt of $1.1 million.

Normally I would double check the shares in issue and Market Capt but running out of time so please DYOR.

CPR Report

Helix Exploration (AIM)

• Stage: Early exploration

• Strength: Large acreage

• Weakness: No drilling yet

• Comparison to Mendell:

o Mendell is closer to drilling

o Mendell has more mature CPR

o Helix is valued more on acreage size than technical detail

RKB

PS Helix Exploration has about 196 million shares and valued at about £70 million and they have not drilled a commercial well yet.

CPR Report

3. Comparative Positioning of Key Peers

Below is a structured comparison showing where Mendell sits relative to the main players.

AIM / Aquis Peers

Helium One (AIM)

• Stage: Pre commercial, multiple wells drilled

• Strength: Large prospective resource

• Weakness: No commercial flow yet

• Market cap driver: “Blue sky” potential

• Comparison to Mendell:

o Mendell has simpler geology

o Mendell has lower risk

o Helium One has bigger upside but higher uncertainty

RKB

PS Helium One almost 10 billion shares and Market Capt of about £60 million and no production unlike Mendel a fraction of their shares.

CPR Report

2. How the Market Values Helium Companies

Across all exchanges, helium explorers are valued on:

A. Stage of Development

1. Pre drill (lowest valuation)

2. Discovery well drilled

3. Flow test completed

4. Processing plant installed

5. First sales (highest valuation)

B. Resource Base

• Prospective resources

• Contingent resources

• Reserves (rare in helium)

C. Helium Concentration

Higher helium % = higher valuation multiple.

D. Flow Rates

Commercial flow = transformational.

E. Jurisdiction & Infrastructure

Hugoton, Kansas, Utah, Arizona, Tanzania, Alberta, etc.

F. Funding Position

Cash runway, CAPEX requirements, dilution risk.

Mendell will be valued using the same criteria.

RKB

CPR Report

POINT C — Market Cap Comparison With Other Helium Companies

This section gives you:

• A structured comparison of the main listed helium companies

• Their stage of development

• Their resource base

• Their market cap drivers

• How Mendell fits into the landscape

This is the context you need before we move to Point D.

1. Peer Group Overview

The helium sector is small, so the peer group is tight and easy to map. The main listed comparables fall into four categories:

A. AIM / Aquis (UK)

• Helium One

• Helix Exploration

• Scirocco (legacy interest)

• Aquis micro caps with helium acreage

B. TSX V (Canada)

• Avanti Helium

• Royal Helium

• First Helium

C. U.S. OTC

• Desert Mountain Energy

• Total Helium

• Pulsar Helium (dual listed)

D. ASX (Australia)

• Noble Helium

• Grand Gulf Helium

These companies form the valuation envelope for Mendell.

RKB

CPR Report

5. How These Scenarios Plug Into Point A (Valuation Framework)

Success Case → Unrisked NPV becomes the valuation

• GCoS = 100%

• Market cap moves toward full project value

•

Partial Success → Risked NPV becomes the valuation

• GCoS increases

• Market cap rises but stays below unrisked value

Low Case → Minimal uplift

• GCoS increases slightly

• Market cap reflects technical success only

This is why Point A and Point B work together: Point A gives the valuation structure; Point B tells you which valuation to use.

In Plain English

Point B gives you the three possible outcomes of the first well and how each one affects:

• Valuation

• Market cap

• Risk profile

• Future development

• Investor sentiment

It is the bridge between the CPR and the real market.

RKB

CPR Report

4. LOW CASE (Technical Success, Weak Commerciality)

This is the CPR’s P90 type outcome.

Technical Outcome

• Flow rate is low

• Helium concentration is low

• Permeability is poor

• Pressure may be lower than expected

• Water ingress may be present

Commercial Outcome

• Project is technically successful (helium present)

• But commercial viability is marginal

• NPV is low or borderline

• Additional wells may not improve economics

• Project may require re evaluation or re framing

Market Reaction

• Share price may fall or remain flat

• Market prices in minimal commercial value

• Company may pivot to:

o new prospects

o re entering legacy wells

o deeper targets

o farm out discussions

Valuation Impact

• GCoS increases slightly (helium system proven)

• But commercial value remains low

• Risked NPV remains modest

• Market cap reflects technical success but commercial disappointment

•

This is the “helium exists, but not enough” scenario.

RKB

PS Obviously I am ignoring the above scenario as for reasons previously stated.

CPR Report

2. PARTIAL SUCCESS CASE (Flow + Lower Helium % OR Lower Flow)

This is the most common outcome in early helium wells.

Technical Outcome

One of the following occurs:

• Flow rate is moderate, not strong

• Helium concentration is lower than mid case

• Permeability is patchy

• Pressure is adequate but not exceptional

• Water cut may be present but manageable

Commercial Outcome

• Project is still technically viable

• Economics are weaker but workable

• NPV is positive but modest

• Payback is longer

• Additional wells may be needed to reach full commerciality

Market Reaction

• Share price rises, but not dramatically

• Market waits for:

o second well

o long term flow test

o updated CPR

• Valuation moves toward risked NPV, not unrisked

Valuation Impact

• GCoS increases (e.g., from 20–30% → 50–70%)

• Risked NPV improves

• Unrisked NPV unchanged

• Market prices in reduced uncertainty, not full success

•

This is the “good but not spectacular” scenario.

RKB

PS We know we are already a success not “a partial success”

CPR Report

POINT B — Drill Outcome Scenario Model

This model gives you three possible outcomes for Mendell’s first well:

• Success Case

• Partial Success Case

• Low Case (Technical Success, Weak Commerciality)

Each scenario includes:

• What happens technically

• What it means commercially

• How the market typically reacts

• How it feeds into valuation

1. SUCCESS CASE (Commercial Flow + Strong Helium %)

This is the scenario the CPR’s P50/P10 cases imply is possible.

Technical Outcome

• Reservoir permeability is in the mid–high range

• Flow rate is commercial (strong initial rate, manageable decline)

• Helium concentration is mid–high

• Pressure supports stable deliverability

• No major water ingress

• Well can be tied into modular processing quickly

•

Commercial Outcome

• Project becomes commercially viable immediately

• NPV becomes positive and material

• Payback period is short

• IRR is strong

• The CPR’s mid case economics are validated

• The project moves from “prospective” to contingent resources

•

Market Reaction

Historically, AIM helium explorers with a successful first well see:

• Large upward re rating

• Market cap moves toward unrisked NPV

• Risk discount collapses

• Liquidity increases

• Institutional interest appears

•

Valuation Impact

• GCoS becomes 100%

• Risked NPV = Unrisked NPV

• Share price reflects success case valuation

• Upside from future wells becomes priced in

•

This is the transformational scenario.

RKB

PS Note the CPR Report says the above is “the transformational scenario” when we have “successful first well” and as we know we have the Rost well in production.

CPR Report

Valuation Outputs You Will Produce

For each scenario (Low / Mid / High), you will calculate:

A. Unrisked NPV

DCF using:

Cash flows

CAPEX

OPEX

Price deck

Decline curve

Discount rate

B. Risked NPV

"Risked NPV"="Unrisked NPV"×"GCoS"

C. Implied Market Cap

"Implied Market Cap"="Risked NPV"

D. Implied Share Price

"Share Price"="Implied Market Cap" /"Shares in Issue"

E. Sensitivity Table

Show how valuation changes with:

Helium %

Flow rate

CAPEX

OPEX

Price deck

This is where you see which variables matter most.

How This Framework Will Be Used Later

When you return to Points B, C, and D:

Point B (Drill Outcome Scenarios) plugs directly into this valuation model.

Point C (Market Cap Comparison) gives you the multiples to benchmark Mendell against.

Point D (Rost well producing) will materially change the GCoS and therefore the risked NPV.

This framework is the backbone for all three.

In Plain English

This valuation framework lets you calculate:

What Mendell is worth today (risked)

What Mendell could be worth after a successful well

How Mendell compares to other helium companies

How much value the Rost well adds once we incorporate it

It is the complete structure you need before we start plugging in numbers.

RKB

CPR Report

Three Valuation Approaches (You Will Use All Three)

Approach 1 — Risked NPV (DCF Model)

This is the CPR aligned method.

"Risked NPV"="Unrisked NPV"×"GCoS"

Where:

GCoS = Geological Chance of Success

Unrisked NPV = DCF using P50 flow, helium %, CAPEX, OPEX, price deck

This gives the most conservative valuation.

Approach 2 — Market Multiple Comparison

Compare Mendell to:

Helium One

Pulsar Helium

Desert Mountain Energy

Total Helium

Avanti Helium

Other AIM/Aquis helium explorers

Use metrics such as:

Market cap per Mcf of helium

Market cap per prospective resource unit

Market cap per well drilled

Market cap per flowing Mcf (if applicable later)

This gives the market aligned valuation.

Approach 3 — “Success Case” Valuation

This is the valuation if the first well works.

Inputs:

Commercial flow rate

Confirmed helium %

Updated recovery factor

Updated GCoS → becomes irrelevant (success = 100%)

CAPEX already sunk

OPEX known

Processing plant installed

This gives the post discovery valuation, which is what the market typically prices in after a successful well.

The Three Scenarios You Will Run

Scenario 1 — Low Case (P90)

Assumptions:

Lower helium %

Lower permeability

Lower flow rate

Higher OPEX per unit

Conservative price deck

Outcome:

Marginal but technically viable

Low NPV

High sensitivity to helium %

This is your downside protection scenario.

Scenario 2 — Mid Case (P50)

Assumptions:

Mid range helium %

Mid range flow rate

Standard CAPEX/OPEX

Mid range price deck

Outcome:

Positive NPV

Reasonable payback

Commercially attractive

This is your base valuation.

Scenario 3 — High Case (P10)

Assumptions:

High helium %

Strong flow rate

Efficient processing

Higher price deck

Outcome:

Very strong NPV

Rapid payback

High IRR

This is your upside valuation.

RKB