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Bought in here yesterday for the first time on the morning dip as it just looks too cheap and management have performed well consistently and for some time now.

Given the H1 figures, together with the order book expansion, it's likely imo that TIME will certainly meet and most likely beat expectations of 4.6p EPS for this year ending in May (which rise to 5.4p EPS for the year commencing June).

Finncap's upgrade to a 71p target (from 47p) is summarised by them as follows:

"Time to celebrate another strong set of interims

Time Finance has released a strong set of interim results to the period ending 30 November 2023. The origination capabilities were firing away with 29% YoY growth to £47m, taking the gross lending book to a new record of £189m. The quality of the book remains uncompromisingly high with invoice and hard-asset financing now making up over 70% of the book and arrears flat at 6%. Revenues increased 19% to £15.7m and PBT increased 35% to £2.7m, reflecting the operational gearing from the organic top-line growth.

Time looks extremely cheap, trading on an FY25E P/E of 7.1x and FY25E P/TNAV of 0.8x. With the sustained period of strong performance through a rising rate environment, we believe that growth will continue or even accelerate in what should be a more benign future environment and as a result we have increased our 1-year price target from 47p to 71p."

Looks like a sizeable and likely 5 year framework contract win for Envolve (formerly Lewis Civil Engineering) - and it's in partnership with another RNWH subsidiary, QTS:

Https://envolve-infrastructure.co.uk/updates/envolve-infrastructure-awarded-three-year-strategic-framework-appointment-on-dwr-cymru-welsh-water-security-fencing-and-gates-framework/

"Envolve Infrastructure awarded three year strategic framework appointment on Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water Security Fencing and Gates Framework.

Date Posted: 08.01.2024

Envolve has strengthened its strategic delivery partnership with Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water with a contract secured to deliver the all-Wales security fencing and gates framework, in partnership with specialist security fencing group business, QTS.

Envolve has been awarded the all-Wales position on the framework, spanning the entire Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water operating region. The framework will run for an initial three-year period with a further two year extension option, potentially taking the framework through to 2028.

Envolve has delivered work successfully for Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water since the company launched in 1984, with a trusted delivery team and proven transparent delivery model, combining civil engineering and water sector expertise to provide Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water a confident and trusted delivery partnership.

Cavendish currently forecast HVO will have almost £35m cash at the last year end. That's around 18% of the current m/cap. So at 29.25p HVO are on a historic ex-cash P/E of 18.4 (I recognise there's an argument that the attractive business model involves the receipt of cash up front to reserve slots, with the accompanying liability for utilising those cash deposits for the initial costs involved in setting up the studies) .

More interestingly, the PEG is only 0.61 given 30% year on year EPS growth from 2022, which is a sign of extremely good value.

Broker forecasts for 2024 are conservative in assuming no EPS growth at all despite increasing revenues. I'm pretty sure these forecasts will be upgraded come the prelims.

Then on top of that you've got HVO's various other investments/ventures which are in the m/cap for free or not very much given the above still attractive ratios.

So given stable markets - and increasing interest in HVO given its current success and increasing size enabling institutional investors to enter the fray - there's hopefully still good upside to come.

Https://overandunder.substack.com/p/gama-aviation-gmaa?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Extracts:

"Quite honestly, I’m flabbergasted by the RemainCo’s incredibly low valuation. As I already mentioned, this is a business that in FY 2022 had sales of ~$167 million! Furthermore, I’m expecting the new strategy to deliver growing Operating Margins that will eventually reach ~10%. An assumption that values the entire company at less than 2 times Operating Profit - an exceptionally cheap price!"

"Ultimately, given the low price and the strong balance sheet, I think this is one of the best investment setups I’ve seen for a long time. As such, I’m really looking forward to following the company’s recovery into 2024 and beyond."

Https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/alumasc-shearwater-and-more-all-on-the-move/

"Shearwater Group (LON:SWG) – Corporate Recovery Is Now Underway

It has not performed well subsequent to my previous COVID Profiles on this company, but I am now having another attempt at getting it right.

Capitalised at £12.1m, the cyber-security, advisory and managed security services group, which has recently secured an attractive three-year contract with a leading global bank for its services, is UK-based but operates on a global scale.

The company is expected to see its sales for the year, to the end of March 2024, rise from £26.7m to around £32.5m, spinning it around from its previous pre-tax loss of £1.3m to a profit of some £1.0m, worth 4.2p in earnings against a 0.4p loss per share.

Estimates are already out there for the coming year to lift revenues to £37.0m, hoisting profits to £1.7m, worth just over 7p per share in earnings.

It is the anticipation of this recovery, as well as its potential over the next 15 months, that makes the group’s shares at just 50.50p look an attractive counter in 2024.

Analyst Price Objectives are just above the 100p mark."

Https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/alumasc-shearwater-and-more-all-on-the-move/?mc_cid=0e7846951e&mc_eid=db9f9bbaf2

"Braemar (LON:BMS) – Competitor Buying Into The Equity

With the re-routing of trade routes around the Cape of Good Hope, the global shipping market is now reacting to container freight rates rising for the last six weeks in a row, getting back up to the higher levels of October 2022.

It was quite a beneficial share price move on Monday, following the revelation that an ambitious Geneva-based shipbroking company has been putting together a ‘major shareholding’ in the group’s equity.

The new holding notification to the market states that Lightship SA has bought some 1m shares representing 3.04%.

That is said to be good news for players in the shipping sector, including shipbroker Lightship Chartering, which is 51.5% owned by Danish founder and chairman Morten Have.

Sune Fladberg, the private company’s CEO is reported as stating that:

“It’s quite simple, we believe strongly in shipping in the near future and are looking for opportunities to invest further in the industry.

We think the valuation in Braemar is very attractive at the moment.”

I reckon that the Lightship stake was purchased at around the 290p level, so at last night’s close of 300p, it is already showing its holding is well in the ‘swim’.

After hitting 310.60p on Monday morning, further price rises to trade well into, the 300p to 350p range can be expected within the next few months."

The full year update tells us that CPO has had a great year - "one of the best annual financial performances delivered by the Palm Oil operation".

Multiplying out the figures, CPO sales were €33.8m against €26.7m in 2022, up around 27%. So the year end outturn should be excellent.

But the cashew news is a setback yet again, with the machinery crapping out once more. The correcting measures are fortunately inexpensive, but it's now this Q2 which is expected to see volumes rise significantly.

Patience is a DKL investor's middle name.....

After taking their further shares in the placing First Equity were due to be at 29m shares per the placing RNS, so they've actually bought a further 1m shares on top to get to their current 30m shareholding.

Great to see the continuing rise here, and on terrific volumes too.

FYI Paul Scott on Stock opedia summarised HVO positively ;ast week (I've had to leave out his charts):

"Paul’s Section hVIVO (LON:HVO)

£6.3m contract signed – Paul – GREEN

Checking our previous notes, we steadily became more enthusiastic about HVO as 2023 progressed, moving in stages from amber up to green by 13/12/2023 (ahead expectations update), and 12/9/2023 (good interims, and forecasts raised).

Well done to patient holders, as it’s had a smashing move up recently, in the almost everything rally we’ve seen in Nov-Dec 2023.

The positive newsflow continues today -

…signed a £6.3m contract with a biotechnology client to test its antiviral candidate using the hVIVO Human Rhinovirus (HRV – common cold virus) Human Challenge Study Model…

Revenue will be recognised in both FY 12/2024 and FY 12/2025.

HVO’s new state-of-the-art quarantine facilities in Canary Wharf will be used.

Broker update – Cavendish helps us with an update. It leaves forecasts unchanged, but they’re looking quite modest, given the strong newsflow. So I suspect beats against forecasts are likely for both 2023 and 2024.

As you can see below, there’s already been an impressive upward trend in forecasts, and I’m pretty sure this is all organic growth too.

Paul’s opinion – HVO really seems to be on a roll, and is producing very impressive newsflow. It’s increasingly looking like one of the UK market’s best growth companies.

Valuation doesn’t seem particularly stretched, once you factor in likely beats against forecast.

I also like that cash is received up-front from clients.

Despite a strong surge in share price, I remain positive on HVO shares, so it’s GREEN again.

Shares have been volatile in the past, but this current bull run looks much more firmly based on excellent company fundamentals"

Cavendish have an updated note out today, reiterating their forecasts of £24m revenues, £1.4m EBITDA and 0.5p EPS this year to 31st May.

Extracts:

"Update.

The statement confirms the Board’s confidence in continued growth across its divisions over the medium term. For the current year, the statement reiterates previous guidance of full-year revenue growth of between 15% and 20%, and profit after tax of between £0.8m and £1.0m.

- Strategy. In the short term, strategy will focus on growth and achieving operational improvements across its businesses as the group’s turnaround continues.

- Petrel. At Petrel, the focus is to increase marketing to drive an increase in export sales to maintain the 18% growth achieved in the last financial year.

- Foundry division. In the Foundry division, both businesses are looking to enter new sub-sectors to drive revenue. CHC is investing in Spheroidal Graphite iron, a market estimated to represent approximately 70% of the total cast iron market representing a significant market opportunity. RDC is investing in the development of steel production, which is a more specialist and higher-margin sector of the castings market.

- Limited need for additional capital investment. Overall, the group has installed capacity to facilitate growth to revenue of c.£45m-50m with limited need for additional capital investment."

Worth keeping an eye on CAPD's shares in WIA Gold - they've been rising nicely recently to A$0.5, and are now worth almost £5m.

Lesville, it's been known for a while that the CEY earth moving contract will end this year, but it's been more than adequately replaced by other contract wins already announced, as indicated in Tamesis' earnings forecasts which show CAPD on a P/E of just 5.8 and an EV/EBITDA of a ridiculous 2.3 for 2024.

Good to see the share price edging up slowly most days now.

Small Caps Live Weekly Summary on 29th December from Mark Simpson had this to say:

"Capital Limited (CAPD.L)

Could this be the year that we finally see the expected re-rating? For several years now this company has remained on a large discount to similar listed peers. The market has had several concerns. The first is the Africa-focus; the second is that they have been taking on debt to invest in growth; the third is that management had a tendency to sell on good news.

In all three, we have had good news recently. With large contracts in North America due to start, this is now becoming a more balanced portfolio. Their Centamin earth-moving contract is due to end in the middle of 2024, and the sale of the equipment could mean that they start to reduce debt (although at these levels, a buyback probably makes more sense.) With the current gold price strength, the current cycle seems far from over, so they have been proven right in pursuing growth over the last few years, but only long-term contracts with Tier 1 producers. Finally, management buys have outweighed sales recently. Could this be the year they are given credit for all the work going on behind the scenes and their record of good capital allocation?"

I too couldn't resist topping up around the placing price. Given the trading outlook disclosed further down the RNS which some may have missed it's hopefully a chance to get in at the very bottom (though of course this has been said before....!).

Great to see the trading news in today's RNS, which indicates a PAT of £0.8m-£1m for this year to Nov'24, and revenues up by 15%-20%.

Which makes the price of the new £0.83m placing particularly hard to swallow. With Trevor Brown investing a further £70k and First Equity a further £220k, taking their holdings to over 41% of the company between them, there's obviously distinct optimism about the direction of the company. And makes this placing simply "shares for the boys/insiders".

It's always best to have spare cash in hand, and with all the contract wins and working capital requirements I don't blame CMH for topping up their reserves. But surely a 2.5p-2.7p price should have been achievable.

That's the markets for you.

News that GMAA are in discussions with "a UK-based provider of helicopter emergency medical services ("HEMS") and aircraft repairs and maintenance services ("MRO".

This quite a major acquisition coming with £24m of revenues, and would be nicely complementary to its existing air ambulance etc services:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/gama-aviation-GMAA/share-news/Gama-Aviation-PLC-Statement-re-Potential-Acquisition/92980108

News of the acquisition of two new businesses for just over £0.5m - including a £0.35m freehold property, which surely makes this terrific value - to be converted into full-blown security centres:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/croma-security-solutions-CSSG/share-news/Croma-Security-Solutions-Group-PLC-Acquisition/92975390

And "There are further acquisition opportunities under consideration".

I'm above all extremely pleased to hear that "No new technical problems have arisen in recent months".

Last year's sales were £8.3m, only just short of expectations. Q4 sales alone were £3m, up from £2m in Q3, and the installation of capacity to meet the huge order books is on track for £23m sales this year.

It's also good to hear that:

"The Company expects to announce further new contract awards in H1 2024"

And that SCE's customers "have agreed their schedules for 2024 which match our assessments of production capability and capacity".

Today's RNS with a rather anodyne title might mean some miss the excellent news below, confirming a record Q4 performance and once again stating that results will be "at least" in line with expectations:

"Prior to this, on Monday, 29 January 2024, we will release a comprehensive Trading Update. This update will highlight a record performance in Q4 2023 and FY 2023, demonstrating that the Group continues to trade at least in line with current market expectations."

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/team-internet-TIG/share-news/Team-Internet-Group-PLC-Announcement-of-Key-Financial-Reporting-Dates/92975485

Per FT Alphaville the cost of container shipping worldwide is up more than 60 per cent this week, and sailing around Africa is adding 10 days to containerships’ journeys. All this has to be good news for BMS?

Https://www.ft.com/content/0dda1cb4-0400-447e-a260-97d90cbfa41d

And as regards the possible closure of the Suez/Panama Canals:

"A closure of these key thoroughfares would boost container demand by 1.5% and 7% respectively. For tankers and bulkers, the closure of the Suez Canal would add roughly 30% to transit distances and boost fleet demand between 1-2%, according to their estimates. Longer supply lines tie up more vessels, boost freight rates, widen origin-destination spreads, and lift bunker demand. Furthermore, a worsening supply chain may be bullish goods demand as companies over-order to ensure adequate inventories. "

FYI Techinvest reviewed the prelims as follows in their recent December issue:

"Frontier IP

40.5p (FIPP; AIM)

Results for the year ended June 30 showed good operational progress among the fund’s portfolio companies against a background in which valuations for unlisted tech operators softened. Net assets per share for the period decreased by 8% to 81.8p. The unrealised loss on the revaluation of investments was £0.97m compared to an unrealised gain of £10.91m in the prior year. Part-disposal of the fund’s

holding in Exscientia generated cash of £4.92m, realising a loss of £0.79m. This compares to a part-disposal of Exscientia in 2022 which generated cash of £6.53m and a profit of £2.87m. The fair value of the equity portfolio decreased by 17% to £32.97m following disposals of £5.71m and additions of £0.75m. The cash balance at the year-end was £4.6m (7.9p per share) compared to £4.37m a year earlier.

This was a resilient performance from Frontier against a challenging background for private equity valuations. The portfolio continues to mature, with several companies generating revenues, having achieved commercial traction. Others have made good industrial and technical progress and are described by Frontier as either at or reaching their inflection points.

Two new portfolio companies, Enfold Health and GraphEnergyTech, were added, and a

further one (DeakinBio) joined the portfolio after the end of the year. Despite difficult market conditions, several portfolio companies raised funds. Exscientia was the first portfolio company to list, with a good overall profit for Frontier, but others are approaching that point, including Alusid which reported that it

is exploring options for an IPO in 2024. We strongly believe that tech investors should have some exposure to private equity in the sector and Frontier is one of our favourite plays, offering a well-focused approach with good diversification

across a range of promising technologies and market segments. Subscribers can learn more about Frontier’s portfolio companies by vising the website at www.frontierip.co.uk. The shares are a strong hold."