Member Info for rivaldo

Eight new nuclear power stations have formally got the go-ahead today - see below for why FSJ will benefit: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/8070810/Eight-new-nuclear-power-stations-despite-safety-and-clean-up-concerns.html "Eight new nuclear power stations despite safety and clean-up concerns Chris Huhne, the Energy Secretary, has given the go-ahead for eight new nuclear power stations in Britain despite concerns about safety and the clean-up costs. etc" Then combine with this FSJ news from 3 weeks ago: http://www.jfns.co.uk//media/pdf/JFNS%20new%20rig%20hall%20open%20day "PRESS RELEASE James Fisher Nuclear Services 27th SEPTEMBER 2010 GRAND OPENING OF MULTI MILLION POUND INVESTMENT IN CUMBRIA Over 100 guests and employees attended the official opening of the new James Fisher Nuclear Services rig hall building at Egremont, Cumbria last Thursday. The building was opened by Dr Ian Hudson, Sellafield Programme Director for the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority. The new rig hall represents an investment of over £2 million by the Company and is the third such building owned by them in the town. James Fisher Nuclear Services has extensive experience in trialling and perfecting equipment in a rig hall environment, rehearsing and training operatives for work in a hostile environment as well as the practical development of innovative solutions. etc"

IDG are now gaining ground in the UK, the rest of Europe, Australasia, the USA and South America. On a £2m m/cap, with £750k net cash, there's a lot to go for. Edison have brought out a new note today FYI - there's no target price, but they do say: http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/research/i-design-group-plc-lonidg-positive-trading-update-49403/ "Valuation: High potential sales growth still in prospect We believe that i-design remains the sole platform independent provider worldwide that is able to facilitate ATM advertising, deliver third-party advertisers and run multinetwork advertising campaigns. As its atmAd licence estate expands, there is high media sales growth potential for i-design to move into sustainable profitability." They also say here: "Continuing to build atmAd licence estate Over the past couple of months, i-design has extended its exclusive agreement with RBS on ATMs at Tesco UK stores and signed up a further 350 atmAd licences, via channel partner Mellon, with Eurobank, a leading ATM network owner in Greece. This builds on the overseas atmAd contracts signed in June: Cardtronics in the US, and a major bank in Ecuador. With the ROI of atmAd remaining an attractive proposition, we expect additional ATM network owners to refocus discussions with i-design. ATM advertising gaining momentum New advertisers have been added and the level of repeat bookings is steady. The company’s atmAd ‘available for third-party advertising’ estate now stands at 9,100, up from 5,600 at FY09 year-end.""

Arbuthnot have said this morning they "have a 20p target price and Buy recommendation". Around 40% upside from here is nice, but I'm thinking a return to around 50p is possible given that a 50p share price would still only represent a £6m m/cap. That would be around 250% upside. I'd hope that Arbuthnot will lift their valuations and target prices once the results are actually out.

Terrific news today. An ahead of expectations RNS is out - and remember that IDG's m/cap is just £1.6m... http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201010180700065193U "Trading Update i-design, the developer and supplier of the market-leading ATM advertising solution, atmAd, is pleased to provide the following update on trading for the financial year ended 30 September 2010. Total revenues in the second half of the year were significantly higher than in the first half and for the financial year as a whole, revenues are expected to be approximately £2.2 million. The loss before tax for the year is anticipated to be better than current market forecasts. i-design's cash position at the year end is expected to be in line with current market forecasts, at approximately £0.75 million. We have seen encouraging progress in the second half and expect this upward momentum to continue. The Directors look forward to updating shareholders further on trading and prospects when final results are issued in December 2010."

A number of encouraging signs - see the closing comment here.... http://www.tradingmarkets.com/news/stock-alert/toy_d-fw-employers-are-hiring-for-the-holidays-1221257.html "Six Flags Over Texas, another popular seasonal employer, is still hiring for its annual Fright Fest fall extravaganza. Tyrone Taylor, director of administration for Six Flags Over Texas and Hurricane Harbor, said he's still looking for "100 or more" employees, about half in food service and others in ride operations, games and elsewhere, for Fright Fest, which runs through Halloween. "Weather's been good," and so has fall business, he said." And Cedar Fair, another theme park operator in the USA, reported good 2010 figures last month: http://cf.wddnsweb2.wddonline.net/_upload/pressreleases/100510%208-k%20presentation%20bannerless.pdf Attendances are up 5% on 2009, and revenues are up 4% to early September. The weather for late September/early October weekends also appears to have been good. And last week's RNS re the director exercising options was VERY encouraging imo. He exercised three-quarters of his 200k options, some of which were only granted last year and weren't due to expire until 2019! People only usually exercise that early either to sell the resulting shares, or to minimise their tax liability in the belief that the share price is about to rise, thus increasing their near-term tax bill if they were to exercise at a later date (obviously he's sold some to pay the tax liability arising). Given the trading statement likely to appear soon, for which the indications are good, if I were a betting man (which I am) I'd bet that that trading statement will be nicely positive.

An article from today's Times - there will surely have to be an RNS about this once it's confirmed. Amazing numbers - Peppa could be worth £1.5-£2 billion in the USA alone if they're right! http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/media/article2760975.ece "From muddy puddles to global superstar, Peppa is laughing all the way to the bank Peppa Pig could be set to complete her transformation from a favourite of Britain’s TV-watching pre-schoolers to that of a global, billion-dollar brand. Helped by brother George and Mummy and Daddy Pig, Peppa, with her characteristic giggle and love of muddy puddles, is already the most popular British pre-school cartoon character and her adventures are shown in 180 countries. Now Entertainment One, Peppa Pig’s owner, is about to strike a key television deal in the United States, The Times has learnt. According to Oliver Dumont, head of Entertainment One’s children’s division, Peppa is “the biggest pre-school girl licensed property in the UK. It’s worth £150m retail. The US in theory has the potential to be ten to fourteen times that number.” The deal, understood to be with Nickelodeon, America’s most-watched children’s channel, will mean that Peppa airs in the United States this Christmas. Late next year, the US network will become a partner with Entertainment One to offer branded products through hundreds of American licensees. British television success is usually associated with hit reality series such as Strictly Come Dancing and Wife Swap, but children’s formats are enjoying unprecedented success, especially in the hard-to-crack American market. At Mip Junior, the content market for children’s programmes that was held in Cannes last week, the number of British companies selling children’s formats rose by 8%. In total, British television export sales increased by 9% last year to earn a record £1.34bn. “All the creative minds are right here in the UK,” Darren Throop, chief executive of Entertainment One, said."

Hello... :o)) http://www.21stplc.com/latest-news/ecomanager-conquers-europe.php "Monday, October 4th, 2010 EcoManager conquers Europe With concerns over rising oil prices spreading to mainland Europe, 21st Century has secured orders for the award-winning fuel saving device EcoManager from bus companies in France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands. 21st Century will be demonstrating the features and benefits of EcoManager at Euro Bus Expo at the NEC on 2nd to 4th November on stand T183. EcoManager assists drivers in adopting a more economic, smoother and safer driving style by highlighting when braking, accelerating and cornering is done correctly or otherwise through an Integrated Safety Device. The ISD lights a series of red, amber and green lights on a ‘real-time’ dashboard display according to how efficiently the bus is being driven. This display uses technical details from the vehicle’s CAN system and G-force data in real time and crosses language barriers, making the system ideal for use across the continent. Extensive management reports show how well each driver is doing relative to the average, the ideal and the rest of their depot colleagues. Significant fuel savings of 12% are made almost immediately, and are sustained after the initial success because of continued monitoring. Further savings are gained through reduced wear and tear on the vehicle and therefore lower maintenance costs. Accidents are also reduced, further lowering running costs. Because the vehicle is using less fuel it is also emitting 12% less carbon. It is estimated that EcoManager makes savings that cover the initial cost of investment within the first year. Paul Rogers, Director of Sales and Marketing for 21st Century Technology Solutions, comments: “EcoManager took the UK by storm when it was launched here two years ago. We launched it in Europe earlier this year and have already received orders in four countries and have begun the installation process with nearly 500 already installed."

Rather excellent news just out - CRE (via TMW) have won the entire Guinness account.... I wonder if this is part of the reason for the rise? http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/news/1020601/Diageo-hands-Guinness-CRM-brief-TMW/ "Diageo hands Guinness' CRM brief to TMW by Sara Kimberley, 05 August 2010, 00:11am Diageo has appointed Tullo Marshall Warren to handle the Guinness relationship marketing and digital engagement account. The agency won the business after a competitive pitch against the Guinness roster agency RMG Target, which is based in Ireland. Guinness is looking to ramp up its relationship marketing activity with an emphasis on digital marketing. The win marks an extension of TMW's relationship with Diageo, which started in 2002. The agency has handled direct work for Guinness in addition to work on Gordon's gin."

CRE has also just been tipped in the IC as follows: "Cheap Creston coming good Created: 27 July 2010 Written by: Steven Frazer Marketing agency Creston is firmly back on the growth track after signing a string of new contracts in the first quarter. New business wins include Astellas, Guinness, Smith & Nephew and Sony, to name just a few, helping to produce an 11 per cent hike in organic revenues, a vital industry metric. That compares with a 6 per cent organic income slump this time last year. Selling its traditional advertising agency last month in a £28m deal was savvy business (Cheap Creston debt-free). Today Creston is debt-free, with over £1m cash in the bank plus up to £25m of funding fire-power if needed. Yet the shares limped just 2.25p higher to 88.5p, demonstrating that the market is simply not giving Creston the credit it deserves. What we said: Buy When: 8/04/10 Price: 92p ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHARE TIP UPDATE: Buy Matching our 120p share price target from our original tip would still leave the PE ratio at less than eight, even after a near 40 per cent-plus profit from here. Keep buying. Last IC view: Buy, 92.75p, 29 Jun 2010"

Robbie Frequenttrader also tipped CRE on Wednesday. Should be more buying to come then I hope. His 140p target would still only be a P/E of 8.75 based on 16p EPS: http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/index.htm "I've also bought some Creston (CRE) - in fact looking at the trades I was the ONLY buyer before results getting 5,000 at 85.1. Results showed the company is now cash positive after making £28m on a sale. This makes it look extremely cheap now and with the debt gone makes it an interesting take over target. At its current price and with an impressive list of top clients I think if I was a rival much bigger advertising firm I'd be snapping it up Creston at this sort of price. So while the price hasn't moved much on results I intend to hold this for a while as I think value will ultimately come out and there might be some decent upside. Target 140 stop 80."

After an excellent recent trading statement CRE's share price has moved up to 95p now. DLKW (now sold for £28m) only provided 22% of headline PBT last year, i.e £3.1m PBT. Pro-rate on the 17.7p headline EPS, the remaining businesses therefore achieved 13.8p EPS last year. This year should see much reduced interest payable, so with only 10% organic growth one could envisage say 16p EPS this year. Singer's have the lowest forecasts of 12.7p EPS this year and 14.4p EPS next year. This seems too low to me. Even so, a P/E of 7.5 this year and 6.5 next year is hardly demanding, particularly for a media sector stock with an increasing net cash pile. Then there are the other forecasts of 16p EPS this year from Investec and 17.9p EPS from Panmure's - these give P/E's of 5.9 and 5.3 respectively. I'd be inclined to go with the Investec forecasts at present. My feeling is that CRE probably have one or two acquisitions of digital marketing agencies in the pipeline. These should hopefully be earnings-enhancing - even at the current price! - and propel a re-rating.

Up another 10p today to an all-time high of 367p. Results in the next week or two should show 53p-55p+ EPS imho, and perhaps as much as much as 57p-60p EPS if we're really lucky. Hopefully the cash pile will also have improved significantly from H1's £20m+ - though there's also the possibility that CHNS have been quietly getting on with building out the new lead recycling plant from existing resources, which would be even better. Net tangible assets still comprise around two-thirds of the current m/cap. Finally, there is also a possibility that CHNS will follow other Asian UK PLCs in considering a dual listing in Hong Kong. If this happens I'm in no doubt that the share price will lift off very quickly. If it doesn't, then I believe the results, asset backing and outlook should be more than enough to support the share price on a historic P/E of only around 6 or just above.

Streaky, thx - VLE remains a bargain imho based on a 25% discount to cash per share, let alone anything else! An excellent new article on Proactive Investors today re PIM should bring some more interest over the next few days. Too long to paste, so here's just the conclusion - given that PIM are expecting £3.5m revenues this year, and with the Arysta partnership, I'd take issue with the "very early stage" description, but otherwise it's pretty fair on first read: http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/15106/plant-impact-positioned-to-benefit-from-increased-need-for-food-productivity-15106.html "Tuesday, April 13, 2010 Plant Impact: positioned to benefit from increased need for food productivity" "Summary Plant Impact’s revenues have the potential to accelerate on the strength of the deal with Arysta. The shares are not without risk as the company is still at a very early stage in terms of product launch. However, Plant Impact has developed a portfolio of fertilizer and pest control technologies with a wide range of agricultural and horticultural applications. Plant Impact and its technologies are well positioned in the industry and supported by macro trends in population growth."

Last year's results were 28th April, so likely only 3 weeks to go at maximum. Perhaps a nice pre-results run-up to new highs from today's 337p? Forecasts are for historic EPS of 50.4p, but I can see a 2009 EPS of say 55p+ if all goes well based on the interims. Even a 600p share price would only be a likely 2010 P/E of 10 based on say 60p EPS or more. With the high tangible asset backing on top the current share price strikes me as still being very undervalued on a historic P/E of likely less than 6.

A recent post-placing 20 page analyst note from Allenby Capital has been made available for all to see at: http://www.mediafire.com/?2nmqqyzmidm They have a £26m EV, which compares nicely to the current £9m m/cap (including the £2m cash). And that excludes any value for Speedo or the pipeline: "We give Pi an EV of £26m valued on future cash flow from sales of CaT™, PiNT® and BugOil® alone. No value is given to Speedo™ despite commercial sales already happening, and no value is given to Pi's development pipeline. Our model includes the acceleration gained from a successful £2m fund raise." "Increasing pressure on arable land, coupled with a consumer driven shift away from synthetic chemical agricultural products is creating a mass market for ecologically sound alternatives. Plant impact ("Pi") has world-class products that qualify and sales are growing. Pi expects regulatory approval for its lead pesticide BugOil® to be granted in 2010, triggering further sales through a licensing deal already in place with agrochemical major Arysta Life Sciences ("ALS"). Pi has raised £2m of equity to accelerate sales roll-out of its two leading crop nutrient products. Valued using modest forecast sales of these two products, revenue from BugOil® and a 16.5% WACC, we give Pi an EV of £26m. Pi is at a similar stage to its AIM peer Plant Healthcare, which is valued at £110m. We see significant upside in Pi's share price."

Yep, I do Mr Gerbil! Terrific news today - CHNS announced that 2009 PBT would be "materially ahead of market expectations": http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201001280700062377G Historic 2009 EPS should now be at least 52p EPS given previous forecasts of 47p EPS. At the current 316p that's a minimum historic P/E of only 6.1. And that's after an unusually large impairment charge in H1. The "true" adjusted historic EPS for 2009 could be around 60p or more, which would leave 2010 looking at perhaps 70p+ EPS given normal impairment charges. That's a current year P/E of just 4.5. The planned lead recycling facility might come on stream this year and would materially and quickly improve profitability. A poster elsewhere noted a comment from the house broker - "Seymour Pierce say price target of 500p is both realistic and conservative", targeting EPS of 50.4p in 2009 and 53.8p in 2010". Those EPS targets are VERY conservative. 50.4p EPS for 2009 is likely to be the house broker playing safe as in the past, allowing them to raise their forecasts and target prices again after the 2009 results are published soon.

VLE has a minimum value of above 500p imho against the current 252p. The current market cap is £14.4m at 252p, with 5.7m shares in issue. This compares to £22m+ of net cash, i.e 386p per share, including post-results dividends from IPT in 2009 and uplift in marketable securities following the recent H1'09 results, plus my £8m valuation for VLE's investment in IPT and say £500k-£1m for Sira Defence. Tangible net assets are around £19m. VLE has: (1) The £22m+ cash as above (2) 50% of IPT (3) 100% of Sira Defence VLE acquired what is now 50% of IPT in Sept'08 for a net acquisition price of just £0.2m. IPT builds customer prospect databases that are generated through the completion of questionnaires that are distributed principally on prize sites on the internet, such as www.MyOffers.co.uk. IPT has a database of over 5.2m email addresses, 6.8m household postal address and 1.7m telephone and mobile numbers, all of which are opted-in to receive marketing from selected clients. IPT processes over 3m completed prospect questionnaires every month. IPT performed strongly in H1'09 with revenue and operating profit for the period of £5.2 million and £1.0 million respectively (3 months to 31 December 2008 £2.7 million and £0.4 million). That's an annualised PBT of £2m, or £1m per annum to VLE. Fully taxed at 30%, and on a multiple of say 10 or 11, the stake in IPT must be worth around £8

CHNS' share price is now at an all-time high of 265p. Yet it continues to trade on a ridiculously low P/E. Even now at 265p the P/E is just 5.6, and the m/cap is not far above tangible NAV. A 50% share price rise from here to around 400p would still mean a P/E of only 8.5. The P/E at the current price would drop to only 4.8 assuming a conservative 55p EPS next year. And this low rating is predicated purely on CHNS' core and fast-growing telecoms business. Its excellent prospects in wind and solar power, for which it's already selling products, and electric power are in the price for free... Online on Friday you could not buy any shares at all! And you could sell loads of shares at ABOVE the mid-price. Which indicates that there is continuing demand for the shares, whilst there is little stock out there to satisfy demand at the current P/E of just over 5. The signs are good based on the above.

At 252p, up 5p today, the share price is at all-time highs. Yet STILL CHNS is on a P/E of only 5.4 based on the 47p EPS forecast (and probably less if CHNS beat forecasts as I believe they will), and is still only just above tangible NAV. With all the renewable energy prospects in the price for free. Fairly priced this could easily be at 400p+ imho based on say 55p-60p EPS next year and all that wind, solar and electric power potential.

Even after today's rise, CHNS remains on a P/E of only 5.1, and is finally above its tangible NAV :o)) And with 120k shares traded today (including PLUS) volumes have been extremely healthy by CHNS' standards.. A 14.5p rise today on excellent volumes is a very good sign going forward. There was an excellent supplement in yesterday's FT titled "The Future of Energy". The relevance to CHNS? Bear in mind that last year China became the world's leading exporter of energy technology and is rapidly expanding its use of renewable energy, including wind and solar power. It's also expanding its energy network at a rate equivalent to the UK's entire power output each year. As we know, CHNS are already selling wind and solar pwoer energy storage systems, and are producing electric bike batteries and researching electric car power systems. CHNS also supply to the expanding nuclear industry. And if China succeed to any extent in tieing up portions of the world's oil and gas reserves and rare earth minerals, then CHNS will be in prime position to exploit this as the Chinese market leader. CHNS have over 100 patents, are introducing lithium-ion batteries etc etc in relation to electric car and bike batteries. The Chinese government has said that renewable energy will account for 15% of energy consumption by 2020. Only a small proportion of this business will do wonders for CHNS. All of this is in the current price for free given the successful core telecoms