Member Info for rivaldo

Good summary of RNWH's prospects here: http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/business/business-news/renew-holdings-decision-to-shift-focus-paying-off-1-5543197 "Renew Holdings’ decision to shift focus paying off Published on 03/04/2013 00:01 Engineer Renew Holdings said its half year results will show further growth in its rail and nuclear businesses, an increased forward order book and a reduction in net debt. The Leeds-based group’s order book is growing as the engineer shifts its focus towards regulated areas such as nuclear, rail and water and away from construction. The group said results for the six months to March 31 will show further growth in its engineering services division, which covers infrastructure, energy and environment. Of these, the strongest performers are rail, which sits in the infrastructure business, and nuclear work at Sellafield, which comes under energy. Net debt has reduced to under £4m from £6.75m this time last year. Renew said it expects to meet full year expectations. Analysts at Numis have pencilled in pre-tax profits of £10.4m in 2013, up from £10.0m in 2012. Renew’s order book had grown to £340m by the end of December from £289m a year earlier. Its engineering services order book had grown by a quarter to £245m from £197m. Engineering now makes up about two thirds of its revenues and Renew is targeting a 70/30 split by the end of 2014. Renew said key contracts include being one of three firms to win a four-year framework deal at Sellafield nuclear processing plant in Cumbria worth a potential £280m. Work is due to begin later this month. The company derives 15 per cent of its revenues from Sellafield. The group’s Amco subsidiary has won orders worth £29m, including £13m for bridges, tunnels and viaducts. It has also won a second deal with Northumbrian Water for trunk mains cleaning. Renew is looking to boost either its water or energy businesses with bolt-on acquisitions that will help it reach its £500m turnover target by 2014. The group’s markets have high barriers to entry and much of its work is contract renewals, offering good visibility for future revenues. Renew’s business comes from its clients’ operating budgets rather than their discretionary budgets, which means the work has to be undertaken even when the economy slumps."

Online earlier this afternoon one could only buy a maximum 10k shares at 14.25p, but could sell a whopping 250k at 14.07p. Rather encouraging.

From Motley Fool this morning, including the following: http://boards.fool.co.uk/article-in-the-scotsman-about-trap-seeking-to-form-12779617.aspx "Results were pretty much in line with expectations. No update re the two major oil companies that Trap are partnering but I understand progressing through legals. I thought most interesting RNS was Ithaca's Full Year Results: http://www.investegate.co.uk/ithaca-energy-inc--iae-/rns/ful... Reservoir performance to date, including the continued production of dry oil, provides a positive signal for the longer term potential of the field. The timing of water breakthrough, along with the efficiency of the sweep of oil through the reservoir assisted by water injection, will be key to predicting the ultimate field production profile. Athena's 2P reserves remain materially unchanged following completion of the end-2012 Sproule reserves evaluation, despite initial production rates from the field being lower than originally forecast. Taking into account the latest dynamic field data and actual oil production to date, Sproule's end-2012 2P reserves are within approximately 5% of that anticipated prior to start-up of the field. Total gross 2P remaining reserves at 31 December 2012 are estimated by Sproule to be 22.6 MMboe, 5.1MMboe net to Ithaca. Trap bought assuming 12-14MMboe ie 9-13MMboe remaining reserves versus Ithaca's 22.6MMboe remaining reserves. With no water contact Trap now appear too conservative but the difference is still a gulf. If Ithaca are correct then Trap's Athena stake worth significantly more than current market cap. Something to watch carefully as 2013 unfolds."

A reminder that the latest forecasts are 13.3p EPS to this 30th September and around 14p EPS to 30/9/14 - a P/E of just 6.25. That's with dividends of 3.3p and 3.5p - a 4% divi yield. There has to be potentially 50% upside from here to a P/E of 9.4 imho. Here's today's RNS - a poster elsewhere has noted that "I believe they are providing an operations update to analysts next week, perhaps in an attempt to change perception of the company", so hopefully some presentations to the City will get things going nicely: http://www.investegate.co.uk/renew-holdings-plc--rnwh-/rns/trading-update/201304020813342864B/ "Ahead of the interim results for the half year ended 31 March 2013, the Board confirms that results for the first half of the year are expected to be satisfactory and will demonstrate further growth in Engineering Services, an increased forward order book and a continued reduction in net debt. The Board continues to anticipate meeting its full year results expectations. Renew's interim results for the six months ended 31 March 2013 will be announced on Tuesday 21 May 2013."

From IAE's results RNS this morning - still wholly oil and no water from Athena, which is good news in itself, but above all they're sticking with 22m 2P reserves compared to TRAP's estimate on acquisition of around 13m. Perhaps TRAP will upgrade their reserves with Thursday's results? TRAP's 15% would be over 3MMboe net..an incredible return on the initial investment, i.e 3,300,000 bbls or say £150 million!!!! Which compares to the curent £33m m/cap rather nicely. And that's without taking into account Lybster's production or any of the other free carries or ethe rest of the exploration portfolio.

RNS just out - good to see the Chairman buying shares, and around £32k's worth at that... http://www.investegate.co.uk/fisher--james---fsj-/rns/director-shareholding/201303251200137819A/ And the Chairman paid 1043p per share, so buyers now can buy them cheaper than him at 1040p. FSJ remains under many people's radar imo. Just look at the volumes since the director buy was announced, and in general too. That will change.

A tick up today and looking rather good online. Currently I can only buy 10k maximum at 86.94p, but I can sell 40k at 85.35p. RNWH remains on an uptrend, and sharp re-ratings can happen when you least expect them. Per Hemscott, on Friday Panmure's reiterated their forecasts of 13.3p EPS this year to 30/9/13, 13.9p EPS next year and 3.31p and 3.47p dividends respectively. That's a current year P/E of just 6.4 and a 3.9% dividend yield.

CRE get tipped as a prime takeover target. Interesting that he posits this purely on the basis of the fundamentals, with no mention of the Havas stake :o)) http://www.whatinvestment.co.uk/financial-news/shares-and-trading/2242483/fidelity-touts-three-takeover-targets.thtml "Fidelity touts three takeover targets Rob St George 18 Mar 2013 | News - Comment now" "Alex Wright, manager of the Fidelity UK Smaller Companies fund, opted for Creston (LON:CRE). This small-cap advertising agency boasts the merit of value: its shares trade on a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 3.6, which Wright described as ‘extraordinarily cheap’. He added: ‘It has strong positions in attractive niches such as social media and healthcare marketing, and as such could be seen as an attractive acquisition target for larger marketing and media groups.’"

Investec reiterate their Buy recommendation and 600p valuation today: http://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/broker-views/ 600p is more in line with my own valuation, bearing in mind the well over 100p per share of cash. And an Interview with the CEO this morning here - excellent and confident performance with quite aggressive questioning! http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000156734&__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cother%7Cvideo%7C&par=yahoo

results well ahead of expectations. 2.5p EPS is way ahead of consensus forecast 1.75p EPS and almost up to THIS year's forercasts of 2.7p EPS - they'll have to increase forecasts quite substantially. Plus there's a 1.25p dividend, so a decent 4% yield. Plus VLK have £8m+ net cash against a £40m or so m/cap. And the outlook statement appears full of confidence with the usual caveat re markets in general.

Terrific results out - 60.03c EPS is well ahead of forecasts of 56.9c. As is PBT at $104.8m, against $102.6m forecast. Dividend is also ahead of forecasts - 14.5c against 13.5c. Order backlog is now at $2.73 billion against $2.4 billion last year. And net cash is now $181m, against a $488m m/cap. Miles too cheap imho.

Online you can buy a maximum of 100 shares at 290p! Whereas you can sell 3,000 at a large premium at 281p.... The share price is only going upwards on that basis. I calculate that VLE has a minimum value of above 500p imho against the current 280p. The current market cap is £13.2m at 280p, with 4.73m shares in issue. This compares to £19.5m of net assets at 30/6/12, i.e 412p per share, including £15.2m of cash, i.e 321p per share. Add in a realistic valuation for VLE's investments in IPT, Sira Defence and Shire Foods - all of which could be sold at any time - since their valuation in the accounts is negligible, and one can reach a valuation of 550p+ per share, since the three investments could be valued as below at around £6.45m or 136p per share to VLE. VLE has: (1) The £19.5m of net assets, i.e 412p per share (2) 45.5% of IPT (see below) - could be worth £2.5m (3) 100% of Sira Defence (see below) - could be worth £0.75m (4) 80% of Shire Foods - could be worth £3.2m The horsemeat furore may be a decent opportunity for VLE's Shire Foods. Shire only use "fresh British-assured red meat from farmers we know", so their sourcing should be fine. Shire supply Sainsbury's, Tesco, Morrisons and Lidl already. It's well known that Morrisons have been the major beneficiary from the scandal, and Shire increased their profile at Morrisons when they acquired the Wedge. Perhaps all this will be enable Shire to widen their profiles within their supplier base. Plus VLE just announced a BIG recent share buyback of 66,000 shares at 280p. They're keen to get the shares in before the closed period for the prelims starts it seems. Only 4.73m shares in issue now: http://www.investegate.co.uk/volvere-plc--vle-/rns/transaction-in-own-shares/201303210915025435A/

OMI has the potential to go to 120p-150p quite quickly imho - assuming Arenal production goes as expected and the gold price holds up. I'm certainly sure about the gold price. If Arenal performs as hoped, then with the range of other projects on the books like Mahoma, Pantanillo etc, there's potential for a lot more than 150p if things are handled correctly by the revamped Board. And even without the above, once the City latches on to the huge dividends which OMI have now stated they intend to pay out, then a little demand from dividend-hungry funds should be enough on its own to send this small cap's share price very nicely higher.

Nicely up today, but EK posted yesterday that he thinks OMI is worth 120p per share: http://t1ps.com/shop/page-article/action-article.show/id-130021772 "Meanwhile, Orosur (OMI) keeps forging upwards. It is now 40p and, with the current gold price, I reckon that 120p is on the cards. Family Cawkwell holds circa 2.5m."

Online I can only buy 500 shares maximum at 40p at present! Whereas I can sell 50,000 at a premium at 39.4p... Poised to move up sharply now with any luck.

"@equity_research: #TMFPP $LOQ.L Lo-Q - another new contract win - shares have been Very strong on series of contract /customer wins. Talk of NASDAQ listing" Equity Development aren't usually the kind of people to talk about such things without being genuine from my experience. You could pick any price target for LOQ following a NASDAQ listing given its global leadership and prospects and the kinds of ratings achieved over there :o))

FYI t1ps.com updated on OMI as follows on Monday, noting that OMI is "chronically undervalued". I agree: http://t1ps.com/shop/page-article/action-article.show/id-130021741 "Earlier this month, Orosur Mining (OMI) announced that David Fowler is to resign as Chief Executive Officer on 31st May 2013, although the company is still in the process of finding a replacement. Alongside this news, Orosur also updated on its production for the third quarter ended 28th February 2013, which came in at 18,401 ounces, resulting in year to date production for the 9 months of 47,822 ounces. The company’s production forecast remains 63,000 to 68,000 ounces for the full year, which looks achievable given these production figures. Also of note was the completion of the ramp to provide access to higher grade ore at the underground mine in Uruguay at Arenal Deeps, which "leaves the company in a strong position to pursue its objectives of generating cash, extending the mine life at San Gregorio, and realising value from its Chilean exploration assets." Assessment... Although Orosur has come far during Mr Fowler's nine years at the helm, we note that the road has been a long and bumpy one - exploration disappointment, Arenal Deeps delays etc. Indeed, a fresh pair of hands may well be what the company needs in order to facilitate the crystallisation of the not inconsiderable value on offer here. With production apparently on target and the company about to begin hitting the higher grade ore at Arenal Deeps, these are very interesting times indeed for Orosur shareholders. Challenges for the next CEO include keeping a lid on costs (broker Canaccord expects $1,000-$1,050 per oz) and articulating the firm's strategy to step up returns to shareholders. Although delivering on production targets and costs remain key to an eventual re-rating, we believe the shares remain chronically undervalued. Even assuming cash costs of $1,000 per oz for FY14 (they are in fact forecast to fall to $$817 per oz), on production of c.70k oz Orosur would generate cashflow of c.$42 million, versus a market cap of c.£27 million at time of writing. As we said, there are still a few hurdles to oversome, but a re-rating looks tantalisingly close here. "Buy", at 34.5p."

Good coverage in the papers this morning - the Telegraph reckons yesterday's contract is worth a whopping $150m-$250m.... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/9931097/Booker-shares-in-demand-on-deal-approval.html "Back on the FTSE 250, there were buyers in Kentz after the engineer announced its second contract win in Canada in less than a fortnight. The group said the value of the work for Imperial Oil Resources, at the Athabasca oil sands in northern Alberta, was “significant” and would last until 2016. Analysts at Oriel Securities reckoned the contract may be worth $150m (£100m) to $250m to Kentz, which ended the day up 34.9 at 412.9p." http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2293529/MARKET-REPORT-Sparks-fly-Marks--Spencer-bid-rumours.html?ito=feeds-newsxml "Construction and engineering services group Kentz advanced 34.9p or 9 per cent to 412.9p after announcing a ‘significant’ contract win in Canada, which analysts say could be worth up to £160million. The contract is for Imperial Oil in the Athabasca oil sands in Northern Alberta, and Kentz will be deployed to support electrical, instrumentation, mechanical, systems completions and start-up assistance. The contract will run until 2016."

Up again - and takeover speculation too per the FT: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b180ad2a-8c80-11e2-aed2-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2NainH8F8 "Kentz gained 9.2 per cent to 412.9p on 20 times the average daily volume after the engineer announced an oil sands contract win in Canada, which the company called “significant”. Vague takeover hopes also helped Kentz shares after dealers picked up on news that Morgan Stanley, the group’s joint house broker since 2011, had dropped equity research coverage, which triggered some speculative theories that it could be acting on behalf of a potential acquirer."

Interesting RNS... - placing at a premium at 20p (though why they couldn't have done this at say 40p I don't know, since the whole market seemed to know/expect it) - substantial participation by the CEO, taking £772,0000 of shares - profits to March'13 to be similar to or higher than last year - in talks re final funding etc of Jungle Book film for 2015 release - maiden dividend promised this coming year at 10-15% of PAT could be quite substantial! - "substantial" improvement in receivables and cash flows expected for this quarter Today's RNS has to be very good news overall. In summary: - DQE are saying they'll earn a minimum 16c per share for the year about to end, i.e around 10.7p EPS. Even on the new 56m shares in issue for the coming year, a $5.9m PAT would equate to around 7p EPS, against the current 19.75p share price - a 1p dividend would represent around 11% of last year's PAT based on the new shares in issue, so that looks reasonable going forward - given that we're now at March 14th, DQE must be pretty certain that the "substantial" improvement in receivables and cash flows has actually happened The forthcoming results should make DQE look extremely cheap assuming the above.