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Good, solid H1 results - and 100% visibility over revenues for this year already.

Cavendish have reiterated their 42p target price and summarise as follows:

"On track to meet all targets. Once again HVO has delivered on its targets, and with CW open we are increasingly confident that targets for both near- and longer-term are achievable, which will drive compound double-digit revenue and profit growth.

— HVO is strongly positioned for future growth. The company has visibility on 100% of FY 2024 revenues and, and good visibility into FY 2025. We believe EBITDA margins will be broadly flat for the next year as the company invests for future growth, revenues are expected to continue their healthy growth trajectory. As a double-digit compounder we believe that the current FY2025E EV/sales and EV/EBITDA multiples of 2.4x and 9.9x respectively are too low, and reiterate our 42p price target, which is solidly underpinned by a 10-year DCF."

A very pleasing update today.

Cavendish's forecast of 5.4p EPS this year is predicated on a mere 5% increase in revenues (Cavendish haven't yet issued a new note today).

If the current 20% revenue growth rate is continued, or even drops to say 10%, then their forecasts are likely to be well beaten to say the least:

"Trading in the current financial year has started strongly as the Group continues to deliver on its four-year medium-term plan that was first announced in June 2021. At 31 August 2024, the unaudited value of the Group's Net Tangible Assets reached a record high standing in excess of £40m. Additionally, the Group achieved record monthly revenues during July 2024, and then again in August 2024, as it continues to benefit from the focus on own-book lending. Unaudited revenues during Q1 FY2025 were approximately 20% higher than the prior year equivalent (Q1 FY2024: £7.6m), providing significant confidence as to delivery of full year performance in line with market expectations. Fuller detail regarding all key metrics and performance during Q1 will be provided in the update being announced on 25 September."

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/time-finance-TIME/share-news/Time-Finance-PLC-Notice-of-Results-Investor-Pres-Trading-Update/94519251

I've bought some more too. The acquisition looks absolutely fantastic for just €80k given:

- €2.2m revenues

- €185k EBITDA and €223k positive cash flows last year

- €279k net cash (with a €293k Covid support loan to repay)

- both RUA's and Abiss's pre-existing relationship with the giant Coloplast

Cavendish will be updating their forecasts after the due diligence is completed, but the £6.6m m/cap including the forecast £3.1m net cash is looking increasingly good value imo.

Schroders continue to buy. They now own a whopping 19.24% of CAR with 14.13m shares and have bought not far off another 1m shares since their last notification:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/carclo-CAR/share-news/Carclo-plc-Holdings-in-Company/94520588

Cavendish have raised this year's forecast to 0.27p EPS (from 0.23p EPS), and they have a 4.7p price target - 87% upside. Plus there's the £9.1m forecast cash pile, backing up almost 30% of the m/cap.

Here's some extracts from their new research FYI - note that even the new forecast is conservative given the H2 weighting and 49% of the full year PBT already in the bank after H1:

"FY24E Forecasts Changes

Following the strong trading in H1/24A, particularly within SocialChain and Brave Bison Performance, we are upgrading our FY24E forecasts. We leave net revenue unchanged but increase our Adj EBITDA forecast by 5% to £4.4m given the prioritisation of higher margin contracts. We assume a larger 13% increase in PBT to £3.7m driven by the consolidation of lease costs which reduces both D&A and interest costs. We see this as conservative given H2/24E now represents c.50% of the full year estimates and typically the business is second half weighted. Adj EPS then increases by 15% to 0.27p as option dilution has dropped since the start of the year."

"Bullish Set of Results – Upgrade to Forecasts Brave Bison has released strong H1/24A results. Innovative AI-driven solutions have helped win a record number of new client engagements and the careful management of staff utilisation through automated resource planning systems has driven Adj PBT/net revenue margins to within the medium-term target range of 18-20%. The encouraging performance has led us to upgrade our FY24E Adj EPS forecast by 15%. We have released our FY25E forecasts which show the sixth consecutive year of profitable growth with Adj PBT increasing 4% YoY to £3.8m. Brave Bison’s valuation looks compelling given it trades on an FY2 EV/Adj EBIT of just 6.3x versus peers on 10x. We update our 1-year price target to 4.7p based on Brave Bison trading in-line with the peer’s FY1 EV/EBIT multiple of 13.6x."

"Valuation – The average net cash over the course of FY25E is expected to be c.£10.5m, which if deployed on an acquisition at the same P/E as Brave Bison would generate annualised earnings accretion of over 30%. Brave Bison’s valuation looks compelling given it trades on an FY2 EV/Adj EBIT of just 6.3x versus peers on 10x."

I've bought in for the first time here on the dip.

I've seen them present a couple of times before and they've always been very impressive, to the point and focused on achieving the strategy.

Cavendish have increased their forecasts today by a whopping 15%.

They now go for 0.27p EPS this year. This alone puts BBSN on a value P/E of only 9.25. But then take into account the forecast £9.1m year end cash pile - 28% of the m/cap - and the ex-cash P/E reduces to just 6.7.

I was particularly impressed that the abort costs of the MMG acquisition were just £33k - this is tiny. The likelihood of another strongly earnings-enhancing acquisition must be high given management's ambitions.

I've bought some of these on the dip. Having watched for many years, it seems that CYAN are at last on the cusp of a stable and profitable business with the potential for fast and global growth.

The huge recent 6.5m module order means per Zeus that forecast revenues to March '25, which were previously 80% secured, are now fully underpinned. Their forecast of £34.5m revenues and 0.6p EPS to March '25 makes the current share price look very good value - even a small miss on EPS wouldn't affect this view unduly.

Above all, CYAN's financial position has been enhanced by (1) the quantum of the order itself and (2) the favourable payment/receivable terms for the order with initial receipts ahead of related semicinductor orders/payments. So CYAN shouldn't have to dilute at all or by much - I'd expect them to be able to arrange external non-dilutive financing relatively easily now if necessary .

Nice start to the week, and on higher than usual early volumes too. But still very good value imho (see posts below).

"Carclo is my number one recovery play holding. There has only been 10% share dilution from the £5 high on the chart and they only had £97m sales then. CAR has sales of £133m-£144m over the coming two year. CAR had a big rating back in 2013 but even a quarter of that rating on what is more than 50% more sales than back then should easily get CAR into £1+ territory if they keep delivering as promised imo. Another point to look back at is 2017 where they did 12p+ eps and there has been no share dilution since then, although the pension deficit was a lot lower then. The shares were trading at 175p then so even taking into account the higher pension deficit which now seems to be falling, I still see £1+ potential. CEO of two years, Frank Doorenbosch, has delivered a decent recovery and with his history of turning around plastics co RPC he has good form. Back good management imo.

The shares rallied 27% on Thursday to a new recent high too. This is the thing with recovery plays, they can flop or they can 30 bag. There is no guarantees, this is higher risk, higher potential reward. I like to determine which way it is going and it seems to be the right way, so I hold and have been adding. Obviously I would say do your own research as these are a big holding of mine and I am bound to be biased and talking my own book."

"CAR I had already got back up to my highest number of shares a week ago so that was great, I increased my holding more on Thursday, well over 10% holding now."

fyi from ****ney rebel's review this weekend:

"on thursday, carclo car, also had their agm and trading update.

this was another fine report with progress across the board. there were no numbers but for the past two years, this trading update hasn’t carried numbers – yet doorenbosch has delivered, so you need a little trust until the november interims where they will spell out the performance in detail.

ctp design & engineering, ctp us manufacturing solutions, ctp emea manufacturing solutions, speciality division all performing positively from what the co says. the last of the production in tucson, arizona has arrived and the centralisation of the business now in pennsylvania means tucson can close and costs reduced even more.

you can’t want more than that from a trading update, none of the ‘howevers’ in there to take the shine off things, progress across the board. this guidance was nice in my opinion:

“our expectations for the fy25 full year and fy26 remain unchanged with margin expansion anticipated to continue as the group starts to see the full benefits of the operational optimisation process, continuing our journey toward our strategic goals of 10% return on sales and 25% return on capital employed.” if they achieve this they should be doing double digit earnings before too long imo. roce according to stocko is currently 2.5% so they are forecasting a 10 fold increase.

there is yet to be news on the pension revaluation which is expected to reduce the deficit substantially and possibly reduce payments into the pension. this triennial valuation started in march so i am hoping/expecting news by the interims in november, the co has said there would be news later this year. panmure said this about the pension deficit back in july:

“we expect carclo to release an updated actuarial pension valuation later this year which hopefully will disclose a lower pension deficit. given our methodology to derive the target price, should the deficit be say £70m (i.e. £13m lower than the deficit reported in 2021), it would add a further 17p to our target price, a material increase. furthermore, there could also be a reduction in the annual funding of the deficit which is currently stands at £4.0m”.

Good to see 800,000 of buys today resulting in a nice 5.4% move up.

The investment company ONWD have this morning just release their (rather impressive) interims.

They own £1.42m of shares in REAT - 5.8% of their portfolio - and they had this to say today:

"React Group plc (REAT LN) - Date of first investment May 2023

With React we believe we have captured a defensive growth opportunity at a value price, and invested c.6% NAV into the company. It is a business the team have been researching since September 2022 (pre-launch) and was an early pipeline priority. Through a mix of specialist cleaning services for UK corporates, the business has a highly attractive earnings profile. The business has three core divisions:

1. React - the heritage of the group, reactive specialist cleaning often needed for emergencies or callouts requiring specialist cleaning techniques; high margin but less predictable.

2. LaddersFree - large glass pane and cladding cleaning for UK corporates, executed through a capital-light membership model.

3. Fidelis - contract cleaning focused on public services. The business operates over 80% of its sales on contracted terms of one to five years and has been organically growing at 17%+ per annum for the past four years under a new management team. Sales are highly cash generative and yield a high contribution margin, whilst CAPEX, depreciation and amortisation are all insignificant.

Crucially now, as a result of a mix of organic and acquisitive growth and the upcoming cessation of deferred consideration payments, the business is beginning to generate strong profits and free cash flow growth from contribution margin as it exploits inherent operational gearing. If one were to look away for a moment - not knowing the company cleans large glass facades, rolling stock, and prisons - its characteristics mean it could easily be mistaken for a small, successful software company. Yet we have been able to acquire shares in React on forward P/E multiples of 6.5x - 8.5x."

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ONWD/half-year-report/16652426

Https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/expert-view-vistry-asos-genus-jet2-hilton-food/a2449435?page=4

"Jet2 valuation ‘far too low’, says Peel Hunt

The valuation of Jet2 (JET2) has been hampered by a tough trading environment but it does not reflect the fact the package holiday group is giving customers what they want, says Peel Hunt.

Analyst Alexander Paterson reiterated his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of £22 on the Citywire Elite Companies A-rated stock, which climbed 1% to £14.70 on Thursday and has soared 40% over the past year.

The company has described full-year 2025 year-to-date trading as in line with management expectations.

‘The shift to later booking patterns has continued, but robust booking momentum means load factors have improved since June,’ said Paterson. ‘Package holiday mix also remains much higher than pre-Covid levels.’

Paterson said that Jet2 ‘continues to offer what customers want and generates superb customer satisfaction ratings’.

‘This is not an easy trading environment, and we do not believe the current valuation sufficiently reflects the group’s progress,’ he said.

The shares currently trade on a price to earnings of 8 times which he said was ‘far too low’."

A good, solid statement, with some optimism looking forwards.

Canaccord retain their 1900p target - and they've upgraded this year's numbers to 171.1p EPS (from 167.2p EPS):

"In consequence, our forecast revenues and cost mix changes and we now see FY25E PBT at £535m (was £523m), with outlook in line with management expectations"

Also worth noting:

"We estimate that Jet2 has the strongest balance sheet ratios in the comparator shown – so we think it can ride-out unexpected pressures and/or exploit opportunities. Its metrics are (in our view) much better placed that TUI, or easyJet."

They summarise:

"Jet2’s trading update demonstrates the distinctive value of holidays to us - which are >80% of revenues, backed up by a ‘Fortress Balance Sheet’. Summer has seen strong late bookings and resilient (increased +6% CGe) holiday pricing (flight-only was softer): We see FY25E PBT at £535m (and H1 PBT +13.8% YoY at £752m) and Jet2 see trading in line with management expectations. Summer 2024 seats are +12.4% YoY, on holiday bookings +8% (was +7%) YoY, flight only +17% (was +16%). Summer 2024 holiday mix is 70.2%. We see FY25E at 68.0%. We project booked holiday pricing at +6% CGe (H1) and flight-only softer (-2% CGe) for summer.

Jet2 shares have relatively outperformed TUI and easyJet by 20-33% YTD but we estimate Jet2 shares are £4.5 too cheap and are still pricing in a yet unseen 30% PBT downgrade. We believe Jet2 continues to generate strong cash earnings, and our BUY is reinforced by: the strength of Jet2’s holiday product (NPS up at 69 from 66), strong Which? reviews; its strong repeat custom; well-regarded colleagues; strong returns (~25% RoE); strong FCF; ‘fortress‘ balance sheet with own cash remaining modestly above Jet2’s target ~£0.7bn minimum ‘own cash’ in 2029E after potential convertible bond repayment and capex rising to £1.275bn in 2029; and hard to replicate resources with competitively-priced assets (a 20-30 year competitive advantage, in our view)."

Great to see the focus on improving margins rather than chasing low quality sales.

This is just what investors want to see. Along with trading nicely in line and restructuring progressing ahead of expectations, CAR's latest management team are finally showing all the signs of smooth sailing without unpleasant surprises and a strategic plan which is actually working.

Yep, terrific to see Rathbones/Investec confident in the story here - another big institutional vote of confidence.

Braveheart are still buying - they now own 10.28%, with 14.072m shares. This is up from 9.93m shares six weeks ago:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/image-scan-IGE/share-news/Image-Scan-Holdings-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/94487058

Another 50k of shares bought back yesterday means that MWE have now bought back a sizeable 1.813m shares in total.

This year's H2 and full year EPS will of course benefit nicely, plus MWE will also save on the cost of the forecast 3.4c dividend (unless MWE re-sell the shares at a profit as they've often done previously).

This unusually large level of buybacks reflects the similar amount of confidence shown in their recent outlook statement:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/mti-wireless-edge-MWE/share-news/MTI-Wireless-Edge-Limited-Transaction-in-Own-Shares/94486962

RNS - the H1 results will be "on or around" 26th September:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/touchstar-TST/share-news/Touchstar-PLC-Notice-of-Interim-Results/94482484

More contract wins today - that's three contract announcements in the last month. Good to see the eyeTrain software upgrades in particular. There must be decent scope for more such wins for this, and also for material revenues from QRO's NASBox ANPR systems given today's £250k is from just one police force:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/petards-PEG/share-news/Petards-Group-PLC-Contract-Wins/94478840