New ED note has 232p target23 Sep 2015 11:10
New Equity Development note is out, concluding as follows:
http://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/doc/1396.pdf
"Today's results showed group FY15 turnover (y/e June) at £202.6m (+2.6%, or +16.5% in constant currency), headline operating profit of £15.4m (+40%, or +52.7% CCs) and closing net cash at £7.8m. All of these outcomes were in line with our estimates, and this was despite suffering significant forex headwinds (stronger £ vs €, Polish Zloty and other EM currencies).
Encouragingly too, Headline Operating Profit margins rose from 5.6% to 7.6%, as a greater proportion of profits were generated from Software and Advanced Solutions. Cash conversion improved to 75% from 41% LY in spite of opening of several new locations - while the dividend was hiked 25% to 5p/share, equivalent to a 3.6% yield and >3x covered by adjusted EPS of 16.19p.
Looking ahead, both YTD trading and the outlook for the remainder of FY16 are said to be "in line with expectations" - with Blancco expanding rapidly and delivering "excellent margins in a buoyant market". FY17 should witness a significant jump in profits, as the drag from the legacy Nokia Europe contract diminishes.
Most importantly, the Board also announced that it was "exploring various strategic alternatives, including the potential sale" (or perhaps even spin off) of its Depot Solutions, set-top-box diagnostics and DigitalCare (handset screen insurance) operations - under the umbrella of a new Repair services organisation, headed by CEO Ian Powell.
This will help focus attention on Blancco, Regenersis' unique 'data erasure' division. It is the undisputed world leader in this field (>7x bigger than closest rival) which reported: FY15 turnover of £15.0m up 30% (or +40.9% LFL in constant currency), adjusted EBITA of £5.4m and margins of 36%. On its own, we think the software division is worth 166p per diluted share, or more than the market capitalisation of the entire group; based on a 6x FY16 sales multiple for the enlarged software arm (ie including today's $12m acquisition of US rival Tabernus), along with adding another $4.9m for RGS' 49% stake in mobile diagnostics firm Xcaliber. This is conservatively pitched towards the bottom end of cyber security peers, which trade on an average of 8.4x revenues.
Adopting a similar cautious view with regards to our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP), and valuing the Repairs unit at £71.4m, we still reach a revised target price for the whole group of 232p per diluted share, which is 66% above yesterday's level."