Numis: Buy with 500p target22 May 2018 10:48
Numis retain their Buy and 500p target - their annualised P/E is only 9.9:
"RENEW (BUY 500P)
Interims results in line and positive outlook, key points:
1. Interim PBT of �12.5m was in line with NSe and we look to maintain full year results for this and next year (9/18E PBT �29.1m, EPS 35.1p, 9/19E PBT �37.1m, EPS 39.7p), though would point out that we recently increased estimates by +2% and +9% respectively to take account of the QTS acquisition. DPS was increased 11% to 3.33p.
2. H1 net debt of �2.5m was in line with NSe and also in keeping with comments initially made by management at the AGM about the impact of 'slower than usual payment profile' which we argued at the time related to Renew's rail business. Management indicates that recovery of this is progressing as expected, and we continue to expect that total quantum of the WIP increase to be recovered will be c.�7m and we also retain our FY net debt figure (which was adjusted at the time of the QTS acquisition to account for the portion of debt funding for the deal).
3. Engineering Services profit was marginally ahead of last year when treating Forefront as a discontinued activity (disposed in February), and revenue reflected both some H1 adverse weather impact and also a flat profile as the Rail CP5 programme comes to a close. EBIT margin rose from 5.6% to 5.8% over this period, however, and with orderbook +9% (showing progress across all three parts of the division) plus the expected shift upwards in rail spend from 2019 onwards, we expect resumption in top-line growth in H2 and beyond.
4. Specialist Building continues to operate a highly selective approach so while we expect some normalisation of revenue back toward NSe �72m for the full year (and H1 revenue was some 24% below last year), we expect the full year EBIT contribution to be flat.
5. Conclusion. Interims as expected, though it is comforting that rail-related working capital flows are being recovered in line with expectations and that management confidence about the outlook in rail remains positive. Elsewhere, in both Engineering Services and Specialist Building, trading is in line with expectations.
Post the QTS acquisition, the shares offer an attractive mix both in terms of rail exposure (ahead of the major shift up in opex spend from 2019 onwards), and scope to organically grow in other areas of non-discretionary infrastructure opex.
Moreover, the 13% EPS growth we forecast for next year looks attractive given the 12/18E annualised P/E of 9.9x, and we believe Renew merits a forward P/E nearer 12x given track record and outlook. We retain our target price and BUY recommendation."