Positive article in the IC pt.28 Jun 2018 10:34
continued....
"The point is that these investments and the ongoing robust organic growth in the US operations still support a step change of profitability in the 2019 financial year, a key reason behind my buy recommendation in March. Also, Gama has strengthened its management team since I published that article, having appointed a new finance director, a director of corporate development and chief operating officer for the US air division. It has also settled four out 10 of the litigation cases outstanding, and is �confident that the overall awards will result in a cash inflow to the company�.
True, the placing will be dilutive on EPS in the short term as the new funds are deployed which is why WH Ireland is pencilling in a figure of 26.4� this year, down from 31.6� in 2017, even though pre-tax profit is set to rise by 16 per cent to $19.9m.
However, the broker still expects earnings growth of 50 per cent in the 2019 financial year, pencilling in EPS of 39.8� based on pre-tax profits of $32.1m. On the basis of the current sterling dollar exchange rate of �1:$1.34, this implies 2018 EPS of 19.7p, rising to almost 30p in 2019 and a forward PE ratio of 10 and seven, respectively. That�s an incredibly low rating for a company without any debt issues (net debt of less than �10m at the end of 2017 has effectively been wiped out as around �20m of the placing proceeds are earmarked for future acquisitions).
Clearly, Gama�s board has to deliver on their expansion plans by targeting high growth regions, and the earnings downgrade resulting from the weaker European business is hardly ideal. However, I feel that the 20 per cent pullback in the company�s share price since March is overly harsh as it�s completely out of proportion to the scale of the earnings downgrade.
Price on a price-to-book value of 1.3 times, offering a dividend yield of 1.4 per cent (the final payout of 2.75p a share for the 2017 financial year goes ex-dividend on Thursday 28 June), and with drivers in place to support the 2019 profit growth trajectory, I would recommend riding out this turbulent passage and await the next trading update from the company on 19 July 2018. Hold."