Member Info for rivaldo

From Citywire this morning - Peel Hunt have a 1300p share price target:

Https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/expert-view-chemring-next-15-serco-renew-speedy-hire/a2468809?page=4

"Peel Hunt: Renew on a material discount

Engineering group Renew (RNWH) is trading at a ‘material discount’ that belies the growth opportunities, says Peel Hunt.

Analyst Andrew Nussey retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of £13.00 on the stock, which was trading up 1%, or 9p, at 845p but has seen its shares tumble around 20% this year.

A ‘fireside chat’ with the group saw Nussey not only retain his estimates but confirm his enthusiasm for the group, which provides maintenance and engineering services to Network Rail.

‘We believe Renew remains well positioned to deliver attractive, cash-compounding earnings growth,’ he said.

‘The shares continue to trade at a material discount to intrinsic value, given the quality of earnings, strong return on capital employed, and both organic and acquisitive growth opportunities.’

He said the group had ‘strategic and operational strengths’."

From Rockwood Strategic's (RKW) Annual Report to 31st March just issued, they state that they increased their shareholding in CAPD by 122% during the year.

They summarise as follows:

"Capital 3.1% Net Assets

Cost: £4.21m, Value as at 31 March 2025

£2.97m, IRR to date -37.9%

The company started out providing drilling services to small African based mining companies and, having developed a reputation of best in class health and safety, service levels and efficiency, has gradually built a diversified client base including a number of world’s major mining companies. The rig fleet is now deployed across several continents and is complimented by other services, the most important for our thesis being the ‘laboratory services’ division which is providing leading edge, environmentally friendly assays and sample testing to its clients. The company suffered during the year due to delays in mobilising its new huge contract with Nevada Gold Mines and also missed growth forecasts for the laboratories business which was disappointing (albeit up 13.6%).

We have engaged regularly with the company about its recent performance given Capital’s history of strong margins and attractive returns on capital. These will be enhanced further over time by the strong growth of the laboratories business, competitors of which are valued very highly. The Founder has consequently stepped back into the business as Executive Chairman and we expect much improved future performance. With a significant personal stake in the company, he is highly motivated to deliver.

Whilst Capital has activities across a number of metals, it still retains a bias to Gold. We expect acceleration and further growth in its key projects, and an eventual realisation of value in the laboratories business. The valuation is anomalous, at a discount to Book Value, despite the ROCE and growth record, its asset base and prospects."

Excellent research elsewhere notes that VLE's £2.79m investment rose by 74.4% in 2024, which equates precisely to Barclays' rise last year, and that the movement in 2023 also matches.

Barclays' share price has risen by a further 28% in 2025, from 265p or so to the current 340p.

Which makes VLE's investment now worth £3.58m (assuming it's still held) and adds another 36p of NAV from this alone.

FYI brief extracts from Cavendish's research update earlier this week.

They've raised their target price to 6p. Their new forecast this year is 0.31p EPS, although on a pro forma basis with a full year of MiniMBA this would be 0.34p EPS:

"A maxi-deal for the MiniMBA

Brave Bison has raised £13.5m of equity funding at 2.45p for the £19m cash purchase of MiniMBA, a marketing skills and training platform. It is structured as a carve out deal from Centaur Media plc, representing a buyout on an adj P/E multiple of 5.5x. The transaction will see the MiniMBA founder and industry titan, Professor Mark Ritson, invest £2m in the placing and a further £2m within 24 months of completion. We upgrade FY25E revenue by £3.7m to £29.2m and adj EPS by 9% to 0.31p. On an FY25E pro forma basis, adj EPS accretion would be 21% to 0.34p, and on an unlevered basis adj EPS accretion would be 28% to 0.36p. On the latter basis, Brave Bison trades on an FY25Epf-ul adj P/E of 8.3x versus peers on 16.2x. We raise our 12-month price target from 4.7p to 6p."

"Acquisition rationale: MiniMBA is a natural fit for Brave Bison under its growth-minded entrepreneurial management team. There are promising opportunities to cross-sell given both companies are selling to the same target market; advertisers’ marketing departments – an audience Brave Bison understands intimately, given its c.120 clients. MiniMBA has non-cyclical revenue streams which are diversified across countries, sectors and B2B/B2C. It has a highly scalable platform with significant growth initiatives planned, and we expect management’s expertise in marketing and digital product delivery will ensure execution."

"Forecasts and valuation:

With 4-months’ of MiniMBA contribution, we conservatively upgrade FY25E revenue by 14% to £29.2m and adj EPS by 9% to 0.31p. We note Brave Bison has upgraded earnings 10 times in four years, including after both transformational acquisitions of Greenlight and SocialChain. On an FY25E pro forma basis, adj EPS accretion would be 21% to 0.34p, and on an unlevered basis adj EPS accretion would be 28% to 0.36p. In the latter case, Brave Bison trades on an adj P/E of 8.3x versus peers on 16.2x. This is despite FY25Epf-ul revenue growth CAGR of over 30% and adj PAT margin of 20%, versus peers on 8% and 10%, respectively. We have raised our 12-month price target to 6p based on Brave Bison trading in line with peers on a post-acquisition proforma unlevered basis."

FYI here's an extract from Cavendish's new research, with a 112p price target and an upgrade to 7p EPS this year.

Incidentally, most people I know value broker research as an important guide to each company and a useful summary of financial info and forecasts. Even the paid-for stuff from Edison etc serves as a useful guide for clarity imo, just ignore the blue sky company price targets etc and draw your own conclusions - as I did in an earlier post in justifying Cavendish's 112p price target for TIME :

"A tick-up to forecasts to start FY26E

Time Finance has delivered an impressive performance for FY25E, reporting record revenues of £37.0m (FY24A: £33.2m) and a 34% growth in PBT to £7.9m (FY24A: £5.9m), ahead of our forecasts by 3% and 5%, respectively. These results conclude the end of the four-year strategy and highlight the success of the Group’s strategic pivot towards its own-book, secured lending, with a particular focus on Invoice Finance and the Hard Asset component of Asset Finance. This approach has generated 16 consecutive quarters of loan book growth, with the book reaching an all-time high of £217m at year-end, while credit quality has remained stable with net arrears and write-offs both holding steady YoY at 5% and 1%, respectively.

Time’s PBT margin expansion of 3pp YoY to 21% reflects the attractive operational leverage instilled as the book continues to scale. Time Finance has bolstered its funding capacity to over £90m in facility headroom, positioning it well for further growth as it begins executing on its new threeyear plan to FY28E. This will see the lending book grow by a further c.50%, arrears remaining stable, PBT margins increasing to the mid-twenties and RoTE increasing to c.15%.

The strength of the trading in FY25E and the positive outlook for Group leads us to upgrade our FY26E revenue forecast by 4% to £38.5m, and upgrade our PBT forecast by 5% to £8.4m. The current valuation looks highly compelling, trading on an FY26E P/E of just 8.8x, PEG ratio of 0.5x and FY26E P/TNAV of 1.1x."

Worth noting a further two relatively large buys yesterday afternoon post-AGM at 2388p and 2400p totalling £34,748.

Zoolook posted this on ADVFN yesterday re the AGM which sounds encouraging (hope he doesn't mind me copying it here):

"There were only 3, possibly 4, investors in attendance and 2 of us went to the pub straight after! Had an open and illuminating Q&A session. All positive. I’ll do a more comprehensive write up at the weekend."

Long Path Partners are still buying - they now own above 18% with 7.26m shares, so they've bought around a further £1.75m of shares in the last month:

Htps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/accesso-technology-ACSO/share-news/Accesso-Technology-Group-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/96322209

An encouraging AGM statement this morning.

BBSN are trading nicely in line with the recently increased expectations of 0.31p EPS this year.

Plus there's "strong progress in pursuit of Brave Bison's strategic goals", with each of the three acquisitions this year prior to MiniMBA sounding like they're making good progress:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/brave-bison-BBSN/share-news/Brave-Bison-Group-PLC-AGM-Statement/96322120

Looks like today's AGM at 12.00 went well! Five buy trades since 12.48 (frenzied trading by VLE's standards), including one of £10,000.

TIME has just been tipped in an email sent out by Master Investor:

"Time Finance – Is This Finance Provider Deserving Of A Much Higher Rating?

Trading Update shows sixteen quarters of growth.

Mark Watson-Mitchell

Jun 26

This morning’s Trading Update from Time Finance (LON:TIME) shows record revenues and a growing lending-book.

The trading update for the year to end-May 2025 reflects the continued success of the group focussing on own-book lending to UK businesses, with demand remaining strong for the group's multi-product funding offering.

That demand has driven further growth across all key financial metrics with both revenue and profitability ahead of market expectations and the lending book having now enjoyed 16 consecutive quarters of growth....."

Great to see this comeback. With a fast rising £13.7m cash pile against the £26m m/cap there's potentially huge upside, especially given the still very low coal prices, the general and increasing need for power in India and the excellent cash flows being generated.

Perhaps news is leaking about possible outcomes in the investigation. If this were to be settled relatively harmlessly for OPG then there should be a big mark up.

Sentiment is everything at present as to how far this recovery goes.

Terrific update as hoped for.

Cavendish have raised their forecasts for the year just finished to 6.5p EPS, and for the current year to 7p EPS.

At 61.5p EPS that's a P/E of only 8.8.

For a business in this sector doing well I might have expected a P/E of say 11-12, which still leaves decent upside.

But TIME have done everything right for an inordinate amount of time now and have grown incredibly fast and consistently.

Their PEG based on last year's growth is a ridiculously good 0.27.

You can bet that the new forecast of 7p EPS is likely to be upgraded given it only factors in 8% growth - and no growth at all from this last Q4, when TIME made £2m PBT.

Cavendish's 112p price target (also likely to be increased at the prelims) is therefore justifiable - this would still leave TIME on a PEG of only 0.5 based on the 33% EPS growth last year.

RNS just out - Slater Investments have bought around another 22.47m shares.

They now own 6.2%, or 82.5m shares in BBSN (up from 60m shares):

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/brave-bison-BBSN/share-news/Brave-Bison-Group-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/96313877

Good to see the Green borthers investing another £350,000 in the placing - they now own 14% of the company.

Also encouraging to see the brief trading update in the acquisition RNS, which confirms "healthy trading in Q1 2025" in line with upgraded market expectations.

The Q4 update again shows results ahead of 6.3p EPS expectations which have already been increased multiple times.....

I can do no better than quote the poster whites123 from his post this morning elsewhere:

"Firing on all cylinders, record revenues, soaring profits, and unstoppable momentum. With 16 consecutive quarters of lending-book growth, a 34% surge in profit before tax, and revenues beating market expectations, this isn’t just a solid performer, it’s a growth machine. Their shift to secured lending has turbocharged margins to 21%, while bad debts and arrears remain impressively stable.

Add to that £90m+ in funding headroom, a lending book at an all-time high (£217m), and visibility of future earnings via rising deferred income, this is a company not just growing, but doing it responsibly and scalably.

With the new three year growth plan now in play, TIME isn’t just another finance stock, it’s a rare opportunity to ride a proven winner poised for compounding success."

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/time-finance-TIME/share-news/Time-Finance-PLC-Trading-Update-and-Notice-of-Final-Results/96312446

A solid (if brief) AGM update, with trading nicely in line and H2 weighted. You're not missing anything TooEarly!

As a reminder, that's 6.6p EPS, rising to 8.3p EPS next year, with a £2.9m cash pile against the £7.2m m/cap as at the last year end. Plus 3.3p and 3.6p dividends respectively.

And the share buyback programme is being expanded to £1m as of today, from the prior £100k limit....

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/touchstar-TST/share-news/Touchstar-PLC-Results-of-AGM-Business-Update-Share-Buyback/96296824

Tamesis have issued a new note after last week's RNS re multiple contract wins, reterating their 160p target price.

Apart from reiterating the detail of the contract wins, they summarise as follows:

"Capital released a company update showing strong momentum across the business as we move into Q3 2025. A new borehole drilling contract at Reko Diq was announced, opening up a further revenue stream at one of the largest copper development projects globally. We also note Reko Diq is ramping up well (see commentary below). Capital has also added new exploration drilling contracts which is excellent news especially at a time of record high gold prices. MSALABS continues its upward trajectory, with the successful commissioning of the state-of-the art commercial laboratory in Nevada and adding new contract awards with Kinross and WIA Gold."

"Valuation

The stock rose 13% upon announcement reflecting the market’s enthusiasm for the positive momentum building across Capital’s three lines of business. The core drilling business continues to grow its book of new clients as the gold price environment spurs on new investment, the mining services business (through Reko Diq) is ramping up well and expanding its offerings, while MSALABS is successfully delivering on its growth at Nevada and expanding its customer base. We estimate Capital’s shares are trading on an EV/EBITDA of 4.3x and 2.9x for FY2025 and FY2026 respectively, and FCF yields of 8% and 11%. We also estimate a dividend yield growing from 2.7% to 3.4% in 2026. This is before fully incorporating the effects of the new contracts. We continue to believe these valuation multiples do not fully reflect the quality of and outlook for the business."

Up nicely today after quite a few buys this morning, including 500,000 and 250,000 buys.

Nice follow-up today to yesterday's more promising results with a £0.4m SAAS contract renewal for RTS over the next two years "from a leading supplier to the UK rail industry":

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/petards-PEG/share-news/Petards-Group-PLC-SaaS-licensing-renewal/96292946

Last year's numbers out today are as flagged, but far more important is the improved picture as of now.

This year has "started positively", and PEG "expect trading for the first half of the year to be well ahead of that reported in the first half of 2024".

The order book is £7.1m, compared to £2.4m last year, and already "revenue cover for 2025 has increased to around 75%".

There are a number of bright spots amidst the continuing delays in Rail.

Affini has recurring revenues of "circa 50 per cent. of its revenues".

QRO, following its success in the UK, is now targeting overseas sales and they "look forward to seeing some results of these initiatives coming through later in 2025".

As regards Eyetrain, "we understand additional awards are to be made soon".

Regarding Defence, "The announcement of the outcome of the UK Government's Defence Review included some elements that may well be helpful to Petards Defence's business, and last month the MOD confirmed that it was taking steps to increase the rate of Challenger 3 main battle tank deliveries".

If one or more of these opportunities arrive then 2025 could be a pretty decent year. And if Rail starts to return then the £4.9m m/cap will look significantly underweight.

In summary:

"In view of the Group's significantly improved opening order book and a full year's contribution from Affini, the Board is confident in the enlarged Group's prospects and anticipates an improved trading performance for 2025."

Ta for the comments chaps, appreciated! The research here has given me a multibagger over time, and I expect the long-term uptrend to continue for some time to come.

Clarke EV have merged with Clarke Connect - looks good to provide what's needed for the UK's digital/infrastructure upgrades:

Https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7340369969034981376/

"We're excited to announce that Clarke EV has fully integrated into Clarke Connect, an evolution which will power the UK's connected future.

As both entities have evolved, a natural synergy has developed that, collectively, delivers comprehensive solutions in power infrastructure, connectivity, and digital transformation. Uniting our service solutions, experience, and knowledgeable people provides an exciting proposition for our current and developing client base.

𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀

As the UK accelerates towards a digitally connected and sustainable future, the need for integrated power infrastructure and connectivity product solutions has never been greater. We provide a matrix of digital transformation solutions:

• 𝗘𝗻𝗱-𝘁𝗼-𝗘𝗻𝗱 𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗿𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲: From DNO applications and grid analysis to system design, civils, installation, commissioning, and electric vehicle infrastructure, we provide turnkey solutions that ensure reliable and scalable power distribution.

• 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝟱𝗚 𝗡𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝘀: Enabling secure, high-speed, and low-latency connectivity tailored for industries like healthcare, manufacturing, and transportation. Our private 5G solutions support real-time data transmission and operational efficiency.

• 𝗘𝗱𝗴𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗦𝗼��𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀: We ensure computation is closer to data sources, reducing latency and bandwidth, which is crucial for applications requiring immediate data processing and decision-making.

• 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗪𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗶𝘁𝘆: Deploying IoT sensors, AI-assisted computer vision, and other wireless technologies to enhance operational intelligence and automation."