RE: Terrific presentation at Mello - moved the share price up17 Nov 2019 14:41
Some random notes from me about INSE's presentation at Mello. I thought the CEO was an excellent presenter, full of passion and industry knowledge. In particular, he knows this sector inside out and has built up and sold similar companies before:
Latest forecasts:
- this year: 1.83p EPS, 0.7p dividend
- next year: 2.08p EPS, 0.8p dividend
- INSE have a 13% leading share in a fragmented market, and are one of only two buyers in the sector
- INSE recently won a new contract with Boots (there were bids from 7 or 8 competitors), and also have extended a contract with Travis Perkins through to 2023
- there's a £60m Corporate Order Book (this against £49m revenues forecast for 2019)
- all of Travis Perkins' energy invoices go to INSE and they input directly into TP's accounting system, set TP's budgets, manage their accruals etc, so are a major data management business
- client retention rates are high at 85%, and any churn is only due to acquisitions
- there are four growth drivers with non-discretionary, recurring imperatives:
(a) compliance with regulation, audit etc
(b) procurement savings
(c) energy accounting
(d) optimisation of energy usage, green efficiency etc
Huge opportunity in optimisation, which is £860m of the total £1.25 billion market. Three of every four UK businesses use a business like INSE, but only one in six have optimisation.
UTW were in almost entirely different markets to INSE, representing only 7% of INSE's business.
Historic private equity take-out valuation have been at minimum 10 times EBITDA. That would be £230m for next year, against the £112m current m/cap.
INSE are rolling out RPA, which has the potential to automate 20% of the labour force.. They aim to increase TCV (Total Contract Value), reduce costs further using their Mumbai admin centre, and to make 4-5 acquisitions per annum.
Re the Ignite Energy acquisition: bought 40% for £5m. Only 10 customers, but makes £12m revenues and £3m EBITDA, embedding staff in clients' operations. WH Smith have made £3.8m annual savings, and SSP £1.5m. INSE have 500 other clients who could make similar savings....
There's a pipeline of acquisitions through to 2024, and INSE aim to grow revenue per meter from £220 to £840.
INSE as a sector-leading player have more leverage with energy suppliers than competitors , i.e in getting rebates from those suppliers for clients.