Member Info for rivaldo

"Positive Outlook The outlook remains positive with management expecting another set of record results. We maintain our Dec'19 EBITDA of £19.8m, PBT of £16.6m (cons £16.7m) to give EPS increases of 1.81p. No change to our net debt expectation of £26.0m (1.3x EBITDA). No change to FY20 expectations. The rating looks highly attractive given the growth projections and cash generation, but there is also scope for further positive surprises via M&A and customer development. Our target price of 25p is underpinned by a DCF model (justified by the nature of the order book and activity)."

I've been sent Peel Hunt's latest note post-interims (cheers mate). To reiterate, their forecasts are:

this year : 1.8p EPS, 0.7p divi
next year : 2.0p EPS, 0.8p divi

Their summary is as follows:

"PEEL HUNT
Buy 4 September 2019
Inspired Energy* INSE

Interims reflect a good start, n/c estimates

6m PBT £6.9m, 2% ahead of PHe £6.7m. No surprises in trading mix with Corporate EBITDA (88% FY19 EBITDA) rising 40% - supported by recent acquisitions, organic growth (6%) and operational leverage. The outlook is positive with a rising order book and notable progress with recent acquisitions underpinning estimates. We confidently retain our Dec'19 PBT of £16.6m to give EPS of 1.8p. Shares trading on 8.4x Dec'19 continue to offer material upside given the pace of growth, new market opportunities (including cross selling) and further scope to consolidate end markets. Buy

Trading Details H1 FY19 revenues increased 33% to £21.6m with group EBITDA increasing 35% to £8.8m. Adjusted PBT rose 30% to £6.9m (PHe £6.7m). The Corporate Division (89% FY19 EBITDA) continues to perform well with EBITDA rising 40% to £9.0m (driven by 6% organic revenue growth despite the FY18 cold weather benefit). Despite some dilution from Inprova the underlying margin was flat at 48.1% given operating efficiency and the growing business scale.

The Corporate Order Book has increased to £55.4m (from £53m at Dec'18) driven by contract momentum (a number of new notable blue chip wins) and customer retention rates remaining impressive (c85%). We observe the increasing diversification with clients spanning manufacturing (Muller), leisure (Nandos), finance (KPMG), retail (B&Q) and the Public Sector (Kings College). SME Division (15% EBITDA) reflected the decision to streamline and refocus on more profitable activity. EBITDA increased to £1.Om from £0.9m. H1 FCF of £1.3m was impacted by the accrued FY18 acquisition costs (£1m), slightly higher working capital outflows (partially reversing in H2) and exceptional acquisition integration (£0.9m). Net debt of £25.1m was broadly in line.

Strategic development. The recent acquisitions (Inprova Dec 2108 and Ignite 1 August) are trading in line with expectations. Moreover, these acquisitions look strategically well timed given the pace of market development towards more specialist integrated and optimised services. Future organic growth aspirations (6-8% p.a minimum) is underpinned by the 6% growth in Units of Opportunity (Meter Points with whom Inspired has a commercial/transactional relationship), the increase in meters under management (+16%) and the 38% increase cross selling opportunities (now valued at £50m). "

Yep, great to see the Naked Trader buying more - he's actually added £50,000 worth:

https://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/

'I bought some more Kape Tech (KAPE) after an acquisition which totally transforms it and makes it a whole lot more valuable.

Indeed I liked what I saw so much in reality I bought roughly another £50,000 worth - for the website though I will use a much lesser amount as usual.

The acquisition will be immediately earnings enhancing and should turn Kape into a much bigger company. Private internet access market is growing nicely and this suits Kape a lot.

I think the market may soon see Kape shares are now worth a lot more than the current market valuation.

As time goes on, value should keep on appearing and I would hope this is one that could have a massive upside over a year or so and they could progress up to the 200p area.'"

and he doesn't even mention the £90m cash pile (or 35p per share):

Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/forget-cash-isas-dividend-growth-082520532.html

"Forget Cash ISAs! A dividend growth stock I’d buy today and hold for 10 years

For investors seeking chubby income flows from their investments, Watkin Jones (LSE: WJG) merits close attention. For the financial year to September 2020 the forward yield sits at 3.8%. Compare this plump reading with the best interest rate of around 1.5% that Cash ISA holders can expect, for instance, as well as the 3.3% forward average offered up by Britain’s mid-caps.

The state of the near-term yield isn’t the only reason why dividend chasers need to pay the construction giant close attention, though. Thanks to the rate at which Watkin Jones throws out cash, annual payouts have exploded in recent years and were up 15.2% in the last fiscal year alone......

....Watkin Jones has got the bit between its teeth and is making brilliant progress on all fronts. For the current financial year, all seven of its purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) developments, totalling 2,603 beds, have been sold. Another 1,928 beds spanning four schemes have been offloaded for fiscal 2021. Meanwhile the business has 159 build-to-rent (BtR) flats forward-sold for the present period and another 782 for the next financial year.

And there could be much, much more to come. According to Watkin Jones, “a number of other PBSA and BtR opportunities [are] in advanced stages of negotiation,” the successful conclusion of which would add an extra 2,025 student beds and 1,150 BtR apartments to the pipeline for delivery in the two years from fiscal 2021.
Share price strength

No wonder, then, that City analysts are expecting Watkin Jones to keep growing earnings by a healthy rate over the near term at least, with an 11% bottom-line rise currently being predicted. And there’s two further reasons to cheer this perky prediction: it results in a cheap forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.5 times. It also leads to those aforementioned expectations that dividends will keep growing at a healthy rate.

A predicted 8.1p per share reward for the year just passed is predicted to rise to 9p in fiscal 2020, up 11.1% year on year, and as I said, a forecast that creates a bulky near-4% yield. The mid-cap looks in great shape to meet this figure, too, what with dividend cover sitting bang on the broadly accepted safety benchmark of 2 times and cash flow remaining strong.

Watkin Jones’s share price has rocketed 15% in the past six months and is now dealing at two-year peaks around 240p, though given its exceptional trading momentum and its undemanding forward earnings multiple I believe there’s plenty of scope for it to keep rising.

For investors seeking hot profits and dividend growth at low cost I reckon it’s a brilliant share t

Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/forget-bitcoin-m-aiming-big-084351165.html

"With that in mind, here’s a look at a smaller growth company I’m backing myself right now.

Under-the-radar video gaming stock

Keywords Studios (LSE: KWS) is an under-the-radar company that specialises in video game support services including game development, functional testing, localisation, art creation, and audio and player support. It’s AIM-listed and currently has a market capitalisation of £836m.

The reason I like Keywords? Video gaming is absolutely huge right now. Believe it or not, the video game industry now brings in more revenue than the film and music industries combined. According to market researcher NewZoo, by 2021, the industry could be worth a staggering $180bn, up from $135bn last year.

Given that KWS serves 23 of the 25 most prominent games companies, including Activision Blizzard (Call of Duty), Electronic Arts (FIFA), and Epic Games (Fortnite), I think it’s the perfect way to get exposure to the video gaming boom. No matter the success of individual games, Keywords should still do well.
Prolific growth

It is certainly growing at a rapid speed. For example, over the last three years, revenue has climbed from $58m to $251m, which represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of a stunning 63%. And recent half-year results, issued on 18 September, showed revenue of $153m (up 39% on 2018), which suggests that full-year revenue this year should be well up on last year. Meanwhile, net profit has climbed from $3.4m to $14.9m over the last three years.

Over the last five years, Keywords shares have risen from 143p to around 1,300p, meaning the stock has been an excellent long-term investment. Yet looking at the exciting growth story here and the stock’s reasonable valuation (P/E of 27 using FY2020 earnings forecasts), I believe that it has the potential to keep rising.

With the video gaming industry set to continue growing rapidly in the years ahead, driven by advanced technologies such as 5G and virtual reality, the future for Keywords looks very exciting in my view."

Hi ivenoidea,
I'm pretty sure the Mello presentation isn't available yet - but it normally is eventually. I'll keep an eye out.

Nice - Peel Hunt have today raised their target price to 84p (from 76p) and say Buy:

Https://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/broker-views/

Hi chrisharp6. The 18.4c EPS for 2020 is calculated on the post-acquisition number of shares in issue. You can easily get the new Progressive Equity Research note from their web site for free (I assume you'll have to register).

'Tis indeed a lovely rise today. I suspect it's the rosy prospects outlined by the much larger sector comparator JDG, which today announced it's paying a special dividend.

If they're paying that out, perhaps they'll have less money to compete with SDI for acquisitions in future! Though SDI's targets are perhaps too small for JDG these days anyway.

Peel Hunt's latest forecasts are:

this year : 1.8p EPS, 0.7p divi
next year : 2.0p EPS, 0.8p divi

At 17.5p INSE are still only on a P/E of 8.75 for the year about to start, with a divi yield of 4.6%.

New article - the acquisition will be 44% accretive to EPS per Zeus Capital, who even prior to the acquisition have CNIC on a P/E of only 9.2 (I assume they mean the P/E will reduce further, not increase!):

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/907393/centralnics-team-internet-acquisition-to-be-44-accretive-to-earnings-in-2020-907393.html

Extract:

"CentralNic’s Team Internet acquisition to be 44% accretive to earnings in 2020

Based in Munich, Team Internet currently runs its operation through over 20mln different domain names serving 35,000 customers

CentralNic Group PLC’s (LON:CNIC) acquisition of German group Team Internet is expected to be nearly 44% accretive to the group’s earnings for its 2020 financial year, according to new analysis from the company’s house broker.

Zeus Capital added in a note published on Monday that the purchase will also be 40.6% accretive in 2021.

WATCH: CentralNic's acquisition of Team Internet to be 'significantly earnings enhancing'

The broker currently has the firm pegged with a price/earnings (PE) ratio of 9.2 for its 2020 financial year, however, this is expected to increase once the acquisition completes next year.

Speaking to Proactive on Monday, CentralNic chief executive Ben Crawford said what makes Team Internet distinct from the rest of its businesses is rather than selling domain names for websites it allows companies to place adverts for themselves of the web pages of defunct competitors, redirecting consumer traffic towards their own sites.

This model means companies can get “the best customer [they] could possibly want”, Crawford says, adding that Team Internet currently runs its operation through over 20mln different domain names serving 35,000 customers.

For CentralNic, the purchase adds another recurring revenue business with organic growth of around 4% per year.

“It’s a business we’ve been chasing for some time”, Crawford says.

etc"

Great find upomega - hopefully we'll see an RNS for that news soon.

..and just ticking up again. Chart-wise looking encouraging too, having broken out to new recent highs.

and looking good online. You can sell 120,000 at 16p, but only buy a maximum 50,000 at 16.9p.

Incidentally, the CEO owns 690,000 shares, worth over £100,000, which is a reasonable-sized holding, certainly in relation to many other CEOs, especially as he was only appointed two years ago.

Other directors are interested in 11.5 million shares between them - so their interests are heavily aligned with ours. Alongside the share option schemes which incentivise the directors at exercise prices of around 11p-14p (plus the LTIP which is based upon EPS).

Still loads of upside on a single-digit P/E, with 32.7p EPS forecast this year.

Encouraging to see an NED buy a substantial amount of shares at 102p - and to see the CFO also splashing out £22k, which is a good sign:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/kape-technologies-KAPE/share-news/Kape-Technologies-PLC-Director-Dealings/81181959

There was some ridiculous selling because of the RNS issued by HAT in the same sector. RFX doesn't carry out any similar business, and this RNS proves it. A complete over reaction. Plus confirmation that trading remains nicely in line. Back to 210p sharp-ish then:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/ramsdens-RFX/share-news/Ramsdens-Holdings-PLC-Share-price-movement/81181882

Buying coming in at almost 302p. Looking good chart-wise in breaking above prior peaks - perhaps back up to 360p soon if this continues.

Some consistent buying in small amounts over the last 3 days, resulting in a couple of moves up. Perhaps our overhang has cleared.

Progressive Equity Research have updated - they now go for 18.4c EPS next year.

Call that a round 14p EPS and we should see a share price of at least 150p here.

And with cyber-security sector share valuations being where they are, then perhaps a lot more than that.