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Very good numbers ahead of expectations. 4.4p EPS is nicely ahead of both Shore Capital's and Edison's forecasts of 4p and 4.2p respectively.

I love the 72% visibility of forward revenues already achieved. Plus 106% cash conversion, large debt reduction , a more meaningful dividend and the very strong outlook:

"Strong start to trading in FY20 continuing the Group's momentum"

Forecasts for this year to 30/9/20 will likely have to be increased to say a conservative 4.8p/5p EPS.

Highlights from today's results:

"Bob Holt, Chairman of Sureserve, commented:

"I am pleased to report an excellent year of both operational progress and improved financial performance, with our results exceeding market and internal targets.

Financial overview

· Revenue from continuing operations up 11% from £190.8m to £212.1m
· Operating profit before exceptional items and amortisation of acquisition intangibles of £9.4m (2018: £8.0m, 16% growth)
· Profit before tax from continuing operations up 174% from £1.9m to £5.3m
· Profit before tax from continuing operations before exceptional items and amortisation of acquisition intangibles of £8.3m (2018: £6.6m)
· Earnings per Share (EPS) from continuing operations up 285% to 2.7p (2018: 0.7p)
· EPS excluding amortisation of acquisition intangibles and share based payments of 4.4p (2018: 3.0p)
· Operating cash conversion from continuing operations of 106% (2018: 60%)
· Year-end net debt reduced to £7.4m (2018: £11.4m)
· Order book of £333.2m providing visibility of earnings with circa 72% covered in FY20
· Full-year proposed dividend of 0.5p, an increase of 100% (2018: 0.25p)"

Good coverage on Citywire this morning of Liberum's Buy note and increased 569p target:

Https://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/news/the-expert-view-fever-tree-dominos-and-henry-boot/a1314850?ref=citywire-money-latest-news-list#i=5

"AFH Financial offers more upside, says Liberum.

AIM-listed national advice group AFH Financial (AFHP) is still offering ‘significant value’ despite share price gains in recent months, says Liberum.

Analyst Jamie Donald retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and increased the target price from 484p to 569p after the company reported 8% organic net flows and revenue increases of 47% in 2019. The shares rose 1.3% to 390p yesterday.

‘The full-year results show operational improvements are being delivered as acquisitions are integrated,’ he said.

‘The share price has recovered in recent months but we believe AFH continues to offer significant value. Improved outlook for the sector has helped a sector re-rating and we increase our target price…implying 48% upside.’"

Just to note that Liberum use their own calculation of fully diluted EPS, which they say for last year was 29.1p EPS compared to the underlying 32.8p EPS. The Liberum forecasts in my last post are in fully diluted terms.

So the core adjusted EPS forecasts are probably around 35p-36p EPS for this year and 40p EPS for next year (though Liberum don't show these in their note).

Progressive Equity Research also have a new note out today - their forecasts are higher and are as follows:

this year : 19.6c EPS
next year : 21.1c EPS

It's also worth putting Liberum's latest forecasts on the thread:

to 31/10/20 : 32.7p EPS, 10p dividend
to 31/10/21 : 36.8p EPS, 11p dividend
to 31/10/22 : 40.5p EPS, 13p dividend

Interesting to see SCE's Facebook page starting to rev up again - hopefully a sign of increased pro-activity and activity in general.

There's news that JB Garage have become a distributor for SCE's carbon ceramic brake discs in Taiwan, and also that SCE have partnered with RMA Trackdays to offer CCM brake discs to their customers:

Https://www.facebook.com/pg/SurfaceTransforms/posts/?ref=page_internal

QTS have been appointed to carry out a £1.7m project over four months to protect the famous "Harry Potter" viaduct in Scotland:

Https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/work-begins-to-protect-harry-potter-viaduct-in-scotland-17-01-2020/

N+1 Singer are joint brokers so have updated this morning but as policy don't have target prices etc.

Here's a couple of extracts - they forecast 16.2c EPS tfor this year (2020):

"Rapid growth confirmed

Kape have announced a full year trading update confirming the expected strong growth in top-line and adjusted EBITDA. Kape’s sales growth accelerated sequentially to 19% h/h in H2 (H1: 7%), supported by continued growth in the Group’s core Digital Privacy segment. Full year revenues of c.$66m (N1S: $68.9m) were achieved after some reallocation of marketing investment towards Digital Privacy (sales recognised over time), which has in turn led to an improvement in revenue visibility for future periods.

Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be ahead of expectations: ($14.5m; N1S: $13.9m) as a result of a higher than expected proportion of Digital Privacy sales.

Management guidance targets revenue growth of 85% and adjusted EBITDA growth of >150% in FY’20E (inc acquisition of PIA), in-line with expectations, and we make no changes to forecasts at this time. FY’20E OpFCF yield is forecast at 5%, ahead of comparative high-growth peers."

"Impact on earnings & valuation

Management guidance for revenues of $120m - $123m and adjusted EBITDA of $35m - $38m (inc acquisition of PIA) is in line with previous forecasts, and we make no changes at this time. Unit economics in Kape’s core market are attractive, and we see a number of supportive trends which have the potential to push positive returns higher still: 1) Market consolidation and rising barriers to entry; 2) Price increases over time (Nord VPN and HideMyAss recently reduced discounts); and 3) Further improvement in retention rates. We see a blue-sky LTV:CAC of 4.0x as achievable (Current: 2.7x). The OpFCF story is building, with OpFCF yield for FY’20E of 5%, rising to 7% in FY’21E."

A couple of extracts from Liberum's update this morning:

"In FY19 AFH delivered 8% organic net flows and revenues are up 47% yoy. The revenue model change in Protection responds to investor concerns and leads to significantly increased cash conversion. In addition, the FY results also show operational improvements are being delivered as acquisitions are integrated. The share price has recovered in recent months but we believe AFH continues to offer significant value.

Improved outlook for the sector has helped a sector re-rating and we increase our TP to 569p from 484p, implying 48% upside. BUY."

"3-5 year targets on track

The 3-5 year targets of £10bn FUM, £140m of revenue and an underlying EBITDA margin of 25%, announced in Jan 2019, have been reaffirmed and we believe these are on track to be met in 5 years.

Remains undervalued

Despite the share price recovery in recent months we believe AFH will continue to re-rate as it focusses on improving FCF. Our TP increases by 18%, driven by the sector re-rating reflecting an improved outlook."

After today's terrific results, Liberum have raised their target price to 569p (from 484p) - that's not far off 50% upside from the current share price.

They've also increased their PBT forecast for this year slightly to £19.4m (from £19.3m), with resulting 32.7p EPS forecast - a P/E of only 11.9.

Terrific stuff. EBITDA slightly above expectations too. And a very confident outlook:

"We have entered 2020 in a very strong position, focused on driving earnings growth and maintaining our historic levels of strong cash generation, alongside maximising the positive impact of our acquisitions."

Excellent results - 32.8p EPS (and 30.4p EPS fully diluted) is nicely ahead of expectations.

It's up 45% on last year, with a 33% rise in the 8p dividend.

The ambition is to double revenues and EBITDA in the next 3 years.

Recurring income is up to £46m out of the £74m total revenues, i.e almost two-thirds.

Despite all this the current year P/E is only 11 or 12.

Plus the outlook is very strong:

"Trading remains strong and in line with the Board's expectations and the current levels of activity underpins the Directors' confidence for the continued progress of the Group in the current year and thereafter in line with its aspirational targets."

Hi Sting69, nice entry price for AFHP! Well done. I've learnt my lesson with O&G - had some big winners (GKP, Salamnder, Coastal) and big losers. Now I'm only invested in SQZ (very healthy Balance Sheet and great prospects) and AEX (a complete punt!).

Momentum is really building nicely now.

That's a great article found originally by longshanks, and there's more coverage here - it's interesting to see that the price is expected to be $6 per tesr, as this is a whopping 20% more than the $5 assumed by Finncap in their calculations.....

Https://thenationonlineng.net/fg-approves-new-test-kit-for-hiv/

Extract:

"Concerning cost and retail, the Nigerian Representative, Omega Diagnostics Limited, Alh. Majekodunmi Aborode, said, “It is going to be $6 per test kit, which is about N2,000, compared with the ordinary CD4 machine in a conventional lab.

“It is less expensive, it does not require any maintenance, it do not require any electricity; also you will know your count result in 40 minutes."

And featured here too:

Https://leadership.ng/2020/01/19/hiv-aids-fg-disseminates-4cd-test-kit-lab-evaluation-report/

I like this comment:

"We know that they are capitalists, but these people are capitalists with a human face,” he explained."

Finncap have retained their 25p target for the moment.

Their current forecast to March'20 only incorporates a total 120k CD4 tests, whereas ODX have already received orders from Nigeria alone for 250k tests and indicated in December that 200k orders could be shipped by the end of March.

At $5 per test this could therefore decent upside to forecasts if ODX can ship 200k or more before April.

Worth reiterating Finncap's closing comment as before:

"Given the potential annual demand for c.6m VISITECT CD4 tests, profits, earnings and target price are very sensitive to supply. For every additional 0.5m CD4 tests sold annually, our target price would rise by c.£15m or 10p per share."

N+1 Singer this morning note that "the distribution arrangement was not mutually attractive due to Itaconix’ existing engagement with detergent brands and the additional channel costs through Nouryon."

So it would seem that ITX are now free to pursue their own direct sales at higher margins, since presumably Nouryon's cut was unacceptable - especially as ITX already have their own contacts with the main detergent brands.

RNS just out - the Nigerian market is huge, and will be the first of many....

Https://www.investegate.co.uk/omega-diagnostics-gp--odx-/rns/nigerian-moh-approval-for-visitect-cd4-350-test/202001171030041757A/

Looking very strong again. I'd assume still very little stock around given the rise on small buying.

Bruce, ignore the NMS - this is just the standard sizing for each stock. The only way to establish at a given point in time what the online balance of stock on the market is looking like is to do dummy buys and sells. In my most recent post this established that you could sell at least 100,000 shares online, but you could only buy just 150 shares.....

Rolling out across nine countries "with more to come":

Https://imimobile.com/blog/google-brings-business-verification-to-sms
Extracts:

"Google brings Business Verification to SMS

Verification to enhance customer trust in SMS messages now also supported by IMImobile
Written by Alex Cambell|
January 16th 2020

Despite the rise in popularity of newer mobile messaging channels such as RCS, WhatsApp for Business and Apple Business Chat, SMS remains the primary mobile communications channel for most organizations. In fact, industry analyst Mobilesquared predicts that 2.8 trillion A2P SMS messages will be sent by 2022......

Verified SMS

If businesses are able to do more to verify they are trusted senders, it will significantly improve engagement and trust with customers. Therefore, the announcement from Google that it is bringing business verification to SMS promises to be a gamechanger when it comes to business SMS messaging. Verified SMS by Google will enable businesses to display their brand name and a logo alongside a verification badge when sending SMS to Messages users.

IMImobile has been one of a select number of technology partners working with Google on this initiative, so we are really excited to help bring Verified SMS to market..."

"Google’s Verified SMS offering presents a number of benefits to businesses:

Verifying message authenticity - on a message-by-message basis – without sending message content to Google
Minimal integration effort required - just provide your business name, logo and description
Improved messaging experience and increased customer trust
The business being seen as an innovator

The roll-out is happening gradually across nine countries including the UK, US, India, Mexico, Brazil, France, Philippines, Spain and Canada, with more to come in the future."

CAPD carried out drilling for Compass Gold in Mali per their news dated 14th January, which was highly successful according to these extracts. and most importantly will lead on to much more drilling:

Https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/2535-tsx-venture/cvb/71858-latest-drilling-in-southern-mali-intercepts-more-gold-mineralization-along-15-km-trend.html

"Drilling was performed by Capital Drilling"

"Compass CEO, Larry Phillips, said, “Based on these results, we believe the Compass team is onto a major gold-bearing trend, and we are excited to get on with the next stage of drilling.”

"What is most exciting is that we have already identified nine large target zones along the Farabakoura Trend, which have yet to be drilled. This latest geological and structural information confirming the location of the Siekorole Shear Zone along our Farabakoura Trend will be invaluable in planning the next phase of drilling over the remainder of the 4.3 km strike length of the Boumban Central target zone, and across the other nine targets identified by our previous exploration work.”