RE: Canaccord raise target price to 45p22 Dec 2025 10:37
An earlier post included the first para of Canaccord's new Buy note, in which they raised their price target to 45p (from 40p).
The rest of their summary is also worth a read:
"Underlying economics At the mid-point of Iofina's forecast, the new plant is expected to cost c.$8.5mn and take 9 months to build; we estimate it will generate incremental annual EBITDA for Iofina of c.$4.2mn at current prices (as well as attractive royalties for WES). In $/ kg, this is an upfront capital cost of c.$45/ kg annual production capacity and EBITDA of c.$22/kg. Given the availability of iodinerich brines across the Permian, we believe there is substantial scope for further similar Iofina plants. We also note the global iodine market is growing at around 1,200 tons incremental demand per year.
Earnings becoming material Iofina completed its first production plant in 2012, growing to over 500 tons annual production capacity in mid 2017. After three newbuild plants in each of 2023, 24 and 25, each on time and on budget, current capacity is around 840 tons, and with this announcement we expect will be above 1,000 tons by end 2026E. At current pricing, we estimate Iofina's growth can accelerate rapidly. We note that we now expect EBITDA above $15mn in 27E, just about double 2024, with limited incremental debt.
Earnings estimates: upgrades
We are raising 2026/27E EPS by 2%/7%, largely on the additional volume and on higher pricing; we now expect a 15% volume increase in 2025E, 21% in 26E, and a further 21% in 27E. We assume prices remain at current levels above $70/kg to end 26E, before dropping to average $67.5/kg in 27E. We are making other minor updates, including slightly higher capex for the new Permian plant and continued investment in 28E. The rough 2026E sensitivity to pricing remains around $6.5mn of EBITDA for each $10/kg on ASP.
Valuation: raising target to 45p, remain BUYers
We base our price target primarily on multiples, buttressed by a NAV-based sum-of-parts. We note that iodine markets remain under-supplied and we believe industry bellwether SQM (Not Rated) has an operating and capital cost higher than Iofina. At our new target price, the stock would trade at 11x/8x 2025/26E EV/EBITDA, which we regard as undemanding given both expected growth and the potential for that to accelerate further."