Member Info for rivaldo

Another contract win just posted:

Https://www.touchstar.co.uk/blog/donegaloils

Extracts:

"Donegal Oils select Android In-Cab Computers from Touchstar Technologies
26 July 2022"

"Touchstar hardware and software solutions are specifically designed for the fuel distribution industry. The company has invested heavily in the development of a new range of terminals based around the Android operating system. This platform offers multiple technical benefits over previous generation Windows devices and, as a progressive organisation, Donegal Oils readily accepted Touchstar’s suggestion to upgrade their fleet hardware.

Donegal Oils are confident FuelStar will continue to streamline and improve their end-to-end delivery processes. To date the key benefits have been identified as:

Real time transmission of ePOD’s, to enable same / next day invoicing.
Control driver workflow to a standardised level, for improvements to efficiencies, safety and service.
Automated, electronic start of day vehicle checks.
Reducing manual administrative tasks like re-keying data.
In-cab Sat Nav, with truck attributes"

Https://rennlist.com/forums/992-gt3-and-gt2rs-forum/1311099-992-gt3-surface-transforms-first-production-run.html

"992 GT3 Surface Transforms First Production Run

Good news out of Liverpool! I was contacted by ST this morning and the 992 GT3 hat designs have been finalized and the kits are finally going into production. I have been given priority on the first batch runs from ST, so if you want them I have a very good chance of getting you these faster than most other vendors.

The PCCB "Replacement" Kits (for those who have OE PCCB) are currently 4 weeks out. (410x36 & 400x32mm)
The Iron "Upgrade" Kits (for those who have OE Iron brakes) are currently 8 weeks out. (410x36 & 400x32mm)

ST rotors typically weigh 14 to 14.6 lbs each. The new 992 GT3 408mm iron discs weigh ~26 lbs. The rear 380 discs weigh ~23 lbs. If you equip ST Rotors you can expect to save nearly 40lbs of unsprung rotating mass over your iron brakes. STs are also normally lighter than OE PCCB discs as well.

If you are sick of brake dust, are afraid of trashing your $20K+ OE PCCB discs, or simply want the best brake rotors on the market for your car, STs are the way to go.

etc"

I note Edison's most recent report after the excellent H1 trading update forecasts 15.5c EPS this year, i.e 12.8p EPS.

This rise to 17.3c EPS next year, i.e 14.3p EPS - a P/E of just 8.7.

And given that the H1 EBITDA represents 58% of this year's forecast, it's likely that Edison's review of their forecasts on 30th August will lead to further upgrades:

Https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/flying-high-with-62-organic-revenue-growth/31130/

Extract:

"Flying high with 62% organic revenue growth

CentralNic has delivered another record quarter, with pro forma last 12 months organic revenue growth of 62% to 30 June 2022 (53% to 31 March 2022), driven by the performance of the Online Marketing division. CentralNic’s privacy-safe approach to online marketing has proved resilient and to be high growth. As a result, H122 revenue is expected to be US$335m (H121: US$175m), with adjusted EBITDA of US$38m (H121: US$20.5m), a margin of 11.3% (Q122: 11.8%).

Both H122 revenue and adjusted EBITDA figures represent 58% of our FY22 estimates (revenues US$573m, adjusted EBITDA US$66m). Management is guiding towards CentralNic meeting at least the upper end of market expectations for FY22, disclosed as revenues of US$603m and adjusted EBITDA of US$70m, although this appears conservative given the annual run-rate. CentralNic trades on an undemanding rating given its growth (FY22 EV/adjusted EBITDA of 6.8x and P/E of 9.5x). We will review our forecasts with the full H122 results due on 30 August."

Tamesis Partners released an update not summarised here yet after the excellent H1 trading update.

They have a 160p target price.

Their forecasts imply 10.74p EPS this year for a P/E at 90.2p of 8.4.

They then imply 20.45p EPS for next year given a P/E of just 4.4!

They also see a 4.7% dividend yield, and the huge free cash flow giving rise to a $50.4m net cash position at Dec'24.

And these forecasts are "conservative"....

Https://www.tamesispartners.com/research-portal#/portal/tamesis-partners

Extracts:

"• Contract awards remain strong. The company continues to win new contracts and extend existing ones throughout Africa. Notably the counterparties to these contracts are of increasing size and quality with B2Gold now a client following a RC drilling contract award. The $150m drilling services contract with Anglogold Ashanti at Geita has already been announced in Q2 and is the second largest award of a new business in the Company’s history. Rig count closed at 116 with the company pointing to further growth to c.120 in the second half.

• MSALABS relationship with Chrysos a major success. Also already announced but worth noting was the expansion of the global partnership with Chrysos. The company is now guiding to 21 PhotonAssay units by 2025 vs six by YE 2022 (which is on track). Each Chrysos unit is expected to generate annual revenues of US$3-5 million so we are looking at c$80m+ of revenue from MSALABS vs just $3m in 2019 . This revenue growth has come with minimal capital outlay.

• Fleet utilisation strongest on record. Just when we thought it couldn’t go higher fleet utilisation increased to 85% in Q2 fully 10% more than we are forecasting for the full year. This, along with a record 116 rig count, augurs well for the full year."

""Investment Case

As has been the case for nearly every trading announcement in the last three years these results are strong and point to further strength and growth. With activity in the mining sector still booming and long-term contracts locked in, we see safety in the medium term revenues and margins, particularly as there is some degree of protection in the long-term contracts. Meanwhile the shares are trading on EV/EBITDA multiples of 2.4x and 2.0x 2022 and 2023 respectively, PE ratios of 8.4x and 4.4x and a dividend yield rising to 4.7%. This implies next to no growth in the business, yet our forecasts show an 8% CAGR in EBITDA from 2022 to 2024 and a 46% CAGR in free cashflow taking net debt from $21.6m at the end of 2022 to a net cash position of $50.4m by December 2024. We believe that, if anything, these forecasts are conservative. We see the current share price as an attractive entry point and maintain our price target of 160p."

There's been three analyst research reports published since the excellent H1 trading update, but only the Singer report with the 405p valuation has been mentioned here via the Master Investor summary.

Singer forecast $170.8m EBITDA and 39.2c EPS this year, but with $88.5m EBITDA in H1 alone KAPE should easily beat that number.

Shore Capital go for $169m EBITDA and 40.6c EPS. They say the valuation looks "extremely modest", "EPS risk is low" and "the underlying growth story robust".

Progressive Equity go for $167.7m EBITA and 39.1c EPS, so once again these figures look easily beatable. They conclude:

Https://progressive-research.com/company/kape-technologies-plc/

"This trading update demonstrates the growth and resilience of the privacy and security markets, the fundamental strategic logic of both the ExpressVPN and Webselenese acquisitions, and the management team’s ability to deliver. We believe there is much further to go with Kape, both in terms of its scale and the market’s appreciation of the quality of management and earnings."

All sounds very positive in the write-up, particularly as regards ATIK, Sentek and Autocol. Plus confirmation of the large firepower for further acquisitions.

Impressive new NED appointed today:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/sdi-SDI/share-news/SDI-Group-PLC-Board-Appointment/88691945

At last - the cashew operation is gathering pace, with "significant" production increases in "the coming weeks" and on track for "a material increase in Group revenue and profitability in 2023, the first full year of cashew production":

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/dekel-agri-vision-DKL/share-news/Dekel-Agri-Vision-PLC-Cashew-Operation-Update/88691913

Hi grippa. The CFO had 236k shares and 500k options, so this represents just less than a mere 10% of her direct holding. And the CFO is normally the poorest paid/least wealthy director, so it's entirely understandable (her prior sale was similarly small beer).

And the CEO's sale was only 5% of his holding, being his first post-IPO sale. CLX shares likely represent much of his entire wealth (apart from those he sold at IPO!) , so it's hardly surprising that every so often he'll get rid of a few. Perhaps the more interesting aspect is that buyers were found so readily and the share price has performed so well.....

Great write-up on FNX from the Private Punter. The Bauer and Nuvei deals certainly sound like they should be the base for further roll-outs and contracts. Interesting to see the German expansion via both Bauer and Gauselmann plus the likelihood of news from Austria in the next few months - that area of Europe is proving particularly fruitful:

Https://martinflitton1.wixsite.com/privatepunter/post/fonix-looking-well-connected-26-07-22

Great news just posted by FNX - a partnership with the German global conglomerate Bauer across Ireland.

And this must have been in development for a while as it's now properly launched so will benefit the current year.

This alone should be lucrative for FNX, but the real golden goose is the likelihood of extensions of this partnership around the world with the mighty Bauer, who have €2.2 billion annual revenues:

Https://blog.fonix.com/fonix-announces-launch-into-republic-of-ireland-and-partners-with-bauer-media-audio-ireland-b9866f7b99eb

"Jul 25

Fonix announces launch into Republic of Ireland and partners with Bauer Media Audio Ireland

We’re excited to announce we’ve launched this month in Ireland.

Across Ireland, our clients can now collect payments for in-app content, games, competitions and digital services from more than 5.1 million mobile subscribers by charging purchases to their postpaid phone bill or prepaid SIM card.

The expansion has started with Fonix managing the mobile interactivity for Bauer Ireland. Bauer Ireland is the country’s largest commercial radio group with five radio brands including the national stations Today FM and Newstalk, two SPIN youth stations and 98FM in Dublin.

Heading into Ireland is another step to achieving our strategic growth plan. We are always looking for new ways to innovate; this is just the start to help us magnify our efforts and strengthen our vision.

Fonix provides a secure, instant and frictionless experience for consumers while also ensuring first-class mobile payment technology, delivering efficiencies for brands.

We look forward to driving growth across this market; our partnership with Bauer Ireland is a first-class example of our connectivity in Ireland being brought to life."

WH Ireland have now updated, and they have a 120p target price.

They retain their forecasts for the moment of £0.4m PBT and 5.5p EPS this year with a £2.4m cash pile, rising to 6.7p EPS and then 8.4p EPS (with a £3.1m cash pile).

They conclude:

"WHI view: This morning’s update illustrates both continued positive trading momentum, alongside progress against the Board’s key strategic objectives. The shares now trade on an FY 2023E EV/Revenue multiple of just 0.6x, EV/EBITDA of just 2.4x and PER of 11.2x. With over 40% of revenue now derived from recurring contracts, we believe there is the potential for the shares to re-rate as the strategy continues to be successfully executed. We see fair value for the shares at 120p."

"It is interesting to note that the second largest holder in the group’s equity is Secarma Group Ltd, the Manchester-based cybersecurity consultancy.

Year End Trading Update – “the potential for our business is evident”

In late April the group issued its Year End Trading Update and provided revenue guidance for the financial year ended 31 March 2022.

Following a strong second half of trading, the group stated that it expected to report revenue up some 12% to over £35.5m (£31.8m).

It guided that adjusted EBITDA could be in excess of £4.2m (£3.7m).

The revenue growth came from a mix of strong renewals from long term clients, in addition to a number of significant new contract wins in the group’s Services division.

With the Update the group’s CEO Phil Higgins stated that:

“I am delighted to report a strong performance for the group, with both revenue and Adjusted EBITDA growth anticipated to be ahead of expectations. Our long-standing clients have continued to extend their business with us, a testament to the strength of our offering, and we have also won work with new customers looking to fortify their organisational resilience in today’s uncertain world.

We have returned to a revenue growth trajectory, underpinned by a strong financial position, and we remain excited for what the future holds.”

While Chairman David Williams said that:

“It is pleasing to see group wide efforts paying off with the delivery of another set of market-beating numbers. The potential for our business is evident.”

Broker’s View – 200p ‘fair value’
Simon Strong, analyst at Cenkos Securities, rated the group’s shares as a Buy, with a ‘fair value’ of 200p a share.

His estimate for the last year was £35.5m sales and an adjusted EBITDA of £4.2m (£3.7m) giving an adjusted earnings per share figure of 11.8p (10.4p).

Looking into the current year his figures are for £37.4m revenues and an EBITDA of £4.8m, worth 13.7p in earnings.

Analysts Ian Robertson and Gareth Evans at Progressive Equity Research look for adjusted EBITDA earnings of 11.9p for last year and 14.1p for this year.

My View – short-term opportunity
I would believe that both companies will be revisiting their current year estimates after this week’s finals statement.

My first Profile on the group was at the start of Covid-19, a period that subsequently saw the shares fall away before the start of the Ukraine war hit them back even further, with 70p its lowest at the start of March.

The way that the shares have responded to the End Year Update is a pointer to further good news boosting them even higher.

It will take some motoring to get anywhere near my first Target Price, but my most recent aim should be achieved within days.

I see them reacting well to this Friday’s good news and subsequent analyst upgrades.

The shares closed at 139p on Friday night, which I consider offers short-term punters a quick opportunity."

Https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/shearwater-group-final-results-due-this-friday-could-well-beat-expectations-yet-again/?mc_cid=3939e7e541&mc_eid=db9f9bbaf2

"Shearwater Group – final results due this Friday could well beat expectations yet again

The question is could we strike a small vein of gold with this group?

This company was formerly known as Aurum Mining, but in 2017 changed its name to the Shearwater Group (LON:SWG).

Later this week it will be reporting its final results for the year to end March and the hope is that the cyber security group will be beating market expectations yet again.

The Business
The company’s full service offering spans identity and access management and data security, cybersecurity solutions and managed security services, as well as security governance, risk and compliance.

Through a focused ‘buy-to-build’ approach, the group has a growth strategy that is focused upon building a scalable group offering an entire spectrum of cyber security and managed security needs.

It serves customers in some 46 countries across the globe, across a broad spectrum of industries.

Operation Segments
The group operates through two main segments – Software (13.6% of group sales) and Services (86.4% of group sales) – it has five primary businesses, Brookcourt Solutions, GeoLang, Pentest, SecurEnvoy and Xcina Consulting.

Brookcourt Solutions delivers cyber security, network monitoring technologies and managed security services to help secure and protect an organisation’s critical infrastructure.

GeoLang delivers data discovery, data extraction and data loss prevention solutions, services and technologies to discover, classify and protect sensitive data and information in the cloud and on-premise.

Pentest provides research-led penetration testing, red teaming, and offensive security consultancy services designed to uncover IT security vulnerabilities, support ongoing information security efforts, and to increase the digital resilience of client organisations.

SecurEnvoy provide trusted identity and access management solutions to millions of users in real-time. Across five continents, its customers benefit from rapid deployments that scale through instant provision, simplicity of use and ease of management.

Xcina Consulting provides business and technology risk assurance and advisory services in support of organisational resilience.

On sales per region basis the UK makes up some 73.7% of sales, Europe 21.6%, North America 3.7% and the Rest of the World just 1%.

The Equity
There are 23.82m shares in issue.

The larger holders include Schroder Investment Management (13.2%), Secarma Group (12.3%), Phil Higgins, CEO, (9.31%), D Stacey (8.83%), David Williams, Chmn, (6.80%), Killik & Co (3.98%), S Watts (3.75%), SpreadEx (1.11%), Robin Southwell, NExec, (0.65%) and Stephen Ball, NExec, (0.50%)."

FNX have a new major shareholder.

Charles Stanley have just turned up with 10.11% of the company, or 10.1m shares.....a very nice commitment indeed:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/fonix-mobile-FNX/share-news/Fonix-Mobile-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/88663657

DKL at the current price would appear imo to be dirt cheap assuming simply any decent return from the new cashews operation and a return to normality for the CPO business.

WH Ireland have this morning reiterated their 9p target price. They currently forecast €0.4m PBT this year, rising to €4.2m next year and €7.2m the year after, equating to 0.5p EPS and 0.8p EPS respectively.

If those expectations are met then it's easy to foresee a share price of say 11p-12p here. It's just up to DKL to deliver....at last :o))

WH Ireland summarise:

"AGM update – Cashews poised to deliver cash flow and diversification

This morning’s AGM statement from DKL highlights the company’s strong FY2021 financial results and significant progress as it positions itself as an increasingly diversified agriculture business, now with two sizeable projects addressing complementary commodities. In their statement, DKL stress the benefits of diversification – reflected well in FY22 year to date performance, where exceptionally strong CPO prices have been offset by an abnormally weak peak harvest in the palm oil business.

With the imminent completion of the cashew project, the company is poised to realise a transformative increase in revenue and profits, at the same time significantly reducing its risk exposure. The company also flags its positive expectations for the palm oil business, with the likely normalisation in harvests in FY23 potentially contributing to record €50m+ revenues, in line with our recently introduced forecasts.

While today’s statement largely reiterates recent updates, we view the company’s confidence in its near term prospects as positive and justified. With a record financial performance for the palm oil business in FY21 recently confirmed, the business now sits with two complementary processing projects fully invested and well-positioned to deliver cash generative earnings. We retain our fair value assessment of 9p."

A very pleasing H1 trading update just out.

- profitability is "Substantially higher".
- recurring revenues continue to rise and are now 41% of total revenues
- the order book has zoomed up from £646k at 31/12 to £1.1m now, auguring well for H2
- and TST are looking to "deliver full year results at least in line with market expectations", so would seem to be pretty confident.

The cash pile was £2.4m at 31/12/21 - 37% of the m/cap - so should have risen further now.

The turnaround appears to be gathering pace at this £6.5m microcap. Looking good:

Https://www.investegate.co.uk/touchstar-plc/rns/trading-update/202207260802347459T/

Announced today:

Https://www.touchstar.co.uk/blog/jdbilsland

Extract:

"Touchstar Android mobile computing devices will be installed across Bilsland depots as part of a roll out commencing in August 2022. By the end of 2022, the company is aiming to have TouchStar technology within its entire fuel fleet.

The company is also intending to make extensive use of the new Touchstar ‘Mapping Console’ module. The Mapping Console matches the wealth of client and order information contained within the Touchstar ‘FuelStar’ front-end application with GPS technology to provide accurate real-time data on the geographical positioning of vehicles and LOB (Load on Board) status. A full historical audit trail of any time period is visible and specific filters can be applied to assist with easy and logical interpretation of the data e.g. identification of vehicles closest to a particular Address/Postcode/Town/POI or the advanced filtering of vehicles carrying specific products. The available information can be utilised to optimise delivery processes. For example, ‘expected LOB’ data can be used to re-purpose the LOB to different deliveries.

System benefits

Personnel across the Bilsland organisation have already witnessed a wealth of benefits following the installation of the TouchStar systems:

Keeping operations COVID-19 safe - TouchStar technology negates the need for fleet drivers to enter the office, enabling the company to adhere to COVID-19 social distancing measures while operating safely.
Improved company-wide communication - The interlinked computer system facilitates real-time two-way data between the front-end mobile terminals and the back-end fleet management and accounts packages. This streamlined communication provides a far more seamless operation for both Bisland and its client base.
Better visibility – Improved visibility and tracking of order progress and status.
Greater flexibility – The TouchStar system provides real-time ‘left on board data’ which enables an urgent delivery / sudden orders to be prioritised and scheduled, aiding workflow, boosting customer service and facilitating reactive flexibility.
Reduced administrative resources – having multiple systems which communicate with each other has vastly improved daily business operations and reduced paperwork
User-friendly systems – The large display and user-friendly interface of the Touchstar mobile computers allows easy operation by drivers of varying ages and safeguards the investment for the future.

Big benefits have also been realised around proof of delivery and customer invoicing activities. The automated system now involves a full audit trail, removes previously hand-written paperwork and makes for significant time efficiencies to be made, massively boosting productivity.

The TouchStar technology has enabled James D Bilsland to be able to focus on customer service and continue to provide the seamless delivery of fuel within this service-sed industry.

Encouraging to see today that an NED has spent £190,000 exercising long-term options in CNIC, but has decided to retain all his shares rather than fund any of that £190,000 cost or the resulting immediate tax gains as most such option exercisers do.

Hopefully a sign that he sees a lot more upside from here (or that he's just extremely wealthy!):

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/centralnic-CNIC/share-news/CentralNic-Group-PLC-Exercise-of-Options/88658491

The weekly rig count continues to rise and was up another 2 last week to 758. It was at just 491 a year ago:

Https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/

Yep, an encouraging update. Nicely in line and no unpleasant surprises. The more and longer that VLG can churn out these solid reports the more quickly confidence will return and the rating will improve.

China's still in thrall to Covid so no surprises there, but huge potential once the fog clears.

Singer Capital Markets have reiterated their 65p target price. They forecast 2.9p EPS this year rising to 3.9p EPS next year.