Member Info for rivaldo

"Key Points:

• Full year revenue exceeds revised guidance

. The company achieved Q4 revenues of US$79.1 million which is 8% above the previous quarter ($73.1m). This drove FY22 revenue to $290.3m, 28% higher than FY21, which exceeded the upper boundary of the revised guidance of $280-290m. This is the third consecutive year of revenue growth with non-drilling revenue contribution edging up YoY (28% of total vs 22% in FY21) driven by mining services and the MSALABS business. The average ARPOR of $191,000 was up both YoY and QoQ which is a positive surprise to our modelling.
• Four contracts awarded in Q4. Capital continued to win new contracts and extend existing ones throughout Africa. During the quarter it announced three contract extensions and a new underground contract with Barrick at North Mara. There was a two-year extension at Barrick’s Bulyanhulu Mine, a three-year extension (with a further two years) at B2Gold’s Fekola Mine and an extension of the exploration contract with Tembo Mining. Note the quality of the customer base too. At the end of 2022 the fleet size had increased to 129 up from 127 in Q4.
• MSALABS continues growth trajectory. MSALABS now has four Chrysos PhotonAssay units commissioned with a further
three due to begin operations in Q1 2023. The Company notes that PhotonAssay continues to be in high demand with MSALABS set to capitalise on this given the expanded relationship with Chrysos Corporation to roll out 21 units by 2025. Given the performance to date and following the rollout of a further 15 units by 2025, along with the expansion of the existing geochemistry business, we remain positive on the ability of Capital’s labs segment reaching the 2025 revenue guidance in excess of US$80 million. Remember too this is effectively zero capital growth.
• Fleet utilisation comes off as portfolio repositioned. The fleet utilisation decreased QoQ to 73% from 77% as rig
movement increased. Capital have noted that it is pivoting away from short-term exploration contracts to focus on longer-term contracts at large scale mine sites and Tier-1 projects. We are not concerned with this quarter’s utilisation as we believe it will be transient as rigs are moved and then pick up slightly (we model an average of 76% going forward).
• Positive outlook gives group confidence to invest. Capital notes that it continues to see robust demand across all business units. The recent rebound in gold price is positive with much of the Company’s revenue generated from the sector. The MSALABS segment is experiencing very strong demand levels which the company is capitalising on with the roll out of at least three (we model seven) Chrysos units this year. The Sukari waste stripping contract continues to perform well and will be at steady state throughout 2023. This major contract continues to support non-drilling revenue growth as well as enhancing revenue diversification and we would imagine the company will be keen to extend and expand this

Excellent news - this should bring in wider attention to this gamechanger from NTQ:

Https://www.linkedin.com/posts/enteq-technologies_the-saber-tool-rotary-steerable-system-activity-7021507697657221120-DSUC

"SABER is a finalist for The Offshore Achievement Awards Emerging Technology category!

We are delighted that SABER is going to be recognised at these esteemed awards, alongside other leading innovations and companies working across not only oil and gas, but also renewables and other offshore industries. Congratulations to the other finalists and we can’t wait for the results on the night!

Discover why SABER was shortlisted: https://lnkd.in/dPh-pse "

Netflix reported rather encouraging subscriber news last night.....

In summary, "Netflix added nearly 7.7m net new subscribers in the fourth quarter of last year, well ahead of the 4.5m predicted by analysts", and the share price surged 6% in after-hours trading:

Https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11655613/Netflix-founder-Reed-Hastings-quits-role-chief-exec.html

Of course, this is only one quarter. Frankly there are so many streaming services out there now that Netflix's subscriber numbers are bound to fluctuate up and down and may well trend downwards from their peak. To me the important fact is that the sector as a whole appears set to thrive for some time to come, especially given the competition between Netflix, Disney, Paramount, HBO, Apple TV, Paramount, ITVX, Pea**** etc etc.

CLX's major customer, Spirent (SPT), have this morning reported "delays to 'customers' investment decisions" and an increased H2 bias.

This, on top of the number of recent PMDR sell trades by CLX directors, led me to take profits on a decent percentage of my holding first thing today. None of these trades have yet been reported as presumably they're above NMS.

I'll retain the remainder and may well buy back (or regret selling!) as CLX is a terrific company with excellent prospects. But it's on a premium rating which demands perfection in performance, so a little caution is perhaps justified as I had quite a large holding here and very nice profits since buying in immediately post the IPO at 50p or so.

CAPD are the drilling contractors at Resolute Mining's Syama mine, where they've just announced "the updated Mineral Resource Estimate for Syama North increases 58% to three million ounces of gold" and:

"The infill drilling program at Syama over the second half of 2022 has exceeded our expectations and the drill rigs are still turning on this contiguous strike discovery of over 6km":

Https://www.investegate.co.uk/resolute-mining-ltd--rsg-/rns/over-three-m-ounce-mineral-resource-at-syama-north/202301190700022450N/

And CAPD are also drilling for WIA Dold at Bouafle, where they've announced "two new significant gold anomalies" and:

"We are confident in the scope for a significant gold discovery at the Bouaflé Project and have commenced an 8,500 metre auger drilling program to test the underlaying structures over these new anomalies":

Https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02621962-6A1132116?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

Good to see Kestrel continuing to buy - they now own over 23%:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/centralnic-CNIC/share-news/CentralNic-Group-PLC-Directors-Dealings/90021913

SDI are now on a P/E of 16.9 for the year ending in only three months' time. We know from repeated examples that forecasts for SDI are usually undercooked, and SDI have a nice habit of underpromising and overdelivering.

Even if SDI "merely" perform in line with expectations then they will be on a very reasonable rating for a growing company in a fast growth sector.

It's worth noting - with the final Atik receipt - that H1 delivered £6.5m adjusted PBT - almost 55% of the year's forecast £11.9m.

And H1 delivered 5.02p adjusted EPS - again 55% of the year's forecast.

So even a mediocre H2 would likely enable SDI to meet expectations. Plus the substantial earnings-enhancing acquisitions of both Fraser and LTE in August and October will contribute fully to this H2, which should further benefit the results.

SDI's rating is hardly challenging in itself, let alone in comparison with sector comparator JDG's, which is much higher. I note that JDG are up today after their trading statement noting that they're "modestly ahead" of expectations for the year to December'22. Most importantly, order intake "picked up strongly in December with the relaxation of China's Covid-19 restrictions", which hopefully bodes well for SDI too.

With the humungous number of Covid infections in China (and likely to grow with the Chinese New Year travel spreading it further) it occurs to me that perhaps there's even a chance of further Chinese OEM orders for Atik.
Whether realistic or not, that's far less important than the apparent return of normality and growth to scientific instrument/equipment markets.

Hi robertalexander - given the run up in the share price prior to the update, it's most likely short-term traders exiting with a small profit. I can never see the point of taking the risk myself! Unless I suppose it's to supplement an existng core position.

Tamesis Partners have retained their 160p price target for the moment, presumably until further review when the prelims are out.

They note CAPD are on a 2023 P/E of only 7.2 and an EV/EBITDA of just 3. Which is just ridiculously good value imho.

I suspect a few silly billies have sold this morning on the publication of an idiotic new note from Shore Capital.

Ironically it's meant to be a positive push for SUR prior to next Tuesday's results, noting that SUR are on an "undemanding" multiple and with "growth and resilience to continue".

But Shore's headline PBT and EPS figures on page 1 are suddenly much less than before. Why? Because - without explaining it clearly - they've recalculated on the basis of the Continuing businesses only, i.e completely excluding the profits of the businesses held for resale.

You have to go to page 2 to see that actually the total figures are exactly the same as before except for a small revision due to the now higher 2023/24 corporation tax charge.

Furthermore, the headline figures adjust out the held for resale businesses, yet fail to adjust "in" for any sale proceeds raising the cash pile or making the EV/EBITDA even better. So it's a one-way street rather than a fair adjustment, i.e failing to adjust the P/E to an ex-cash basis.

Incidentally, they have the "for sale" businesses contributing £2.6m PBT and 1.3p EPS. This might suggest they could raise say £18m-£20m on sale, lifting SUR's cash pile to well over £40m - approaching 30% of the m/cap. But of course they don't even mention this.

In total SUR are forecast to make 8.1p historic EPS and 8.8p EPS this year to Sept'23 - i.e now a single-digit P/E.

The "continuing" business numbers are 6.9p EPS rising to 7.6p EPS - but obviously if you completely exclude the businesses held for resale then you should adjust the P/E to be an ex-cash P/E rather than just ignoring one side of the equation.

This is just so avoidable and has to be the reason for the early sales. Oof, I'm really annoyed at Shore Capital!

Tamesis retain their 160p price target for the moment, presumably until further review when the prelims are out.

They note CAPD are on a 2023 P/E of only 7.2 and an EV/EBITDA of just 3.

Excellent - revenues are slightly ahead of even the very top of guidance.

The $290.3m is also way ahead of Tamesis' forecast of $283.8m. And Q4 revenues of $79.1m revenues bode very well going forward.

Both drilling and non-drillng look in great shape. Non-drilling is increasing fast and is now 28% of total revenues, with Chrysos' prospects looking explosive.

The investment portfolio took a hit as already known - but is worth $38.7m against a cost of $12.5m in 2019 - still a terrific return (and presumably after some profits have already been taken since CAPD were a net seller in 2022).

With "multiple long-term contracts" renewed and won in the year, and Sukari performing very well, CAPD's revenues are not only increasing but also secure going forward and less and less influenced by cyclicality in exploration drilling.

CAPD look in great shape imho.

The year end trading update is out on 30th January, so not long to wait. We already know that we can "expect a full year outcome at least in line with the upper end of market expectations".

I suspect that this will be the very minimum at worst and likely substantially better given CNIC's track record!

Continuing to rise. Nice 7k buy at 72p just now, a full 1p above the published 71p offer price at the time. Keen.

Certainly looking strong at present.

CAPD are the drilling contractors at Odienne for Awale Resources (where they own 8.3m shares), who last night announced a positive drilling update, with continued drilling to come:

Https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/ARIC/news/4877780437185854/Update_on_OdiennxE9_JV_initial_drilling

"Company CEO Glen Parsons commented today:

"Awalé and the Newmont JV team are excited to have the first seven scout holes drilled into the Sceptre East Anomaly which forms part of the larger >20km 2 highly anomalous gold and copper Sceptre mineralized system. Initial observations from the drilling at Sceptre East show that we have intercepted an alteration and mineralized system with extensive chalcopyrite and molybdenite mineralization, and which remains open in all directions. These initial holes at Sceptre East have only tested a fraction of the broader 5km long Sceptre Cu-Au in soil anomaly. We eagerly await results for what has the potential to be a large new discovery in Côte d'Ivoire, following which the company anticipates recommencing drilling as soon as possible in this 1 st quarter of 2023.

Furthermore, the two holes drilled at Charger have both intercepted wide zones of mineralization behind a surface gossan in a new artisanal zone. This drilling has also opened the potential scale of mineralization at Charger.

We look forward to receiving all pending results and the continued drilling at these targets, as well as the new Lando and BBM targets to the north."

Nice business update today. We already knew that ACSO had a very good 2022, and it seems this is continuing with the winning of 18 new clients for their various tech solutions. Good to see some prestigious names in there, including Battersea Power Station and San Francisco Zoo:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/accesso-technology-ACSO/share-news/Accesso-Technology-Group-PLC-Continued-new-busines/90000220

"Steve Brown, CEO of accesso, commented:

"2022 was a strong year for accesso, and we're pleased to have closed out the year welcoming such a unique set of new partners to our worldwide client network. The multi-solution nature of the wins underlines the highly differentiated nature of our mobile-first technology. We look forward to deepening our global footprint even further in 2023, helping operators unlock new opportunities to drive revenue and deliver a better guest experience in the process."

Completely agreed chaps (about both KAPE and CNIC!). In these times it may just be an institutional seller who needs cash to aid liquidity from fund liquidations etc. KAPE are surely certain to be tipped in various quarters over the coming days and weeks - there should be lots of interest at this silly multiple.

Here's a final nice extract from Shore Capital's new note:

"Perspective on 2022

The full year earnings growth, 122% on a pro forma adjusted EBITDA basis, reflects an unswerving commitment to driving organic growth from new customer acquisition and upsell opportunities whilst also successfully executing on a highly ambitious M&A programme.

Over a longer period, Kape’s development is also impressive. One key metric – the SaaS user base – has advanced 28x in the past five years, from 260k at year end 2017 to c. 7.4m as at 31 December 2022. Such growth reflects Kape’s proven ability to leverage its digital marketing engine in addition to its capacity to execute on strategic acquisitions. Notably, both Private Internet Access (in 2019) and ExpressVPN (in 2021) had the effect of roughly doubling the user base while also building out a strong presence in North America (now c. 47% of users). At the same time, Kape’s revenues and adjusted EBITDA continued their rapid ascent, as reflected in FY19A-FY22A CAGRs of 111% and 128% respectively.

Clearly, share price performance is another important metric. From c. 40p in early 2017 to 299p today – a CAGR of c. 40% - Kape has delivered outsized returns for investors reflecting strong strategic execution. Below we contextualise both subscriber growth and share price performance.

While Kape has made remarkable progress to date, the ambition, focus and drive within the company remain as high as ever. These should not be underestimated. As the Company continues to scale up, both organically and in-organically, it ought to generate an even stronger platform for delivering growth and shareholder value.

Valuation and view

In our view, Kape continues to tick many boxes for investors as a high-growth SaaS business with market leading brands in a global target market, providing exceptional midcap exposure to one of the key themes in IT – digital privacy and security. The Company also deserves credit for consistently strong execution and profit delivery versus market expectations.

At 299, Kape trades on 8.5x EV/EBITDA for FY23F (versus 5-year mean of c. 13x) and a PE ratio of 9.4x (versus 5-year mean of c. 20x). The upside potential continues to be supported by cash flows and the earnings growth potential coming from secular organic growth in digital privacy and security, through acquisition potential and through further leveraging business performance driving margins higher. Altogether, we view Kape’s current valuation as extremely modest for its growth prospects and strategic sure-footedness."

Barclays finally "found" my FNX dividend. Only around a month late :o))

FNX loks like a share to hold and hold for the long-term as it steadily grows - all the while paying out handsome dividends unlike most of its brethren.

Progressive haven't even bothered to update their forecasts in today's update note, which is a tad lazy!

Shore Capital have now upgraded to the flagged $173m EBITDA, giving rise to an increased 40c EPS, i.e at the current $1.22 that's 32.8p historic EPS.

Which is a historic P/E of just 9.1.

Shore Capital conclude:

"Kape earned its success in 2022 by providing a premium service to a growing customer base whilst also building customer value and retention. These dynamics will continue in 2023. In our view, the Company appears well placed with a large base of recurring revenues, healthy SaaS metrics and strong growth prospects serving the increasing demand for digital privacy and security.

Forecasts and valuation: The performance confirmed pulls through a 2-3% upgrade to our pro forma adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates for FY22F. We will consider our forecast model in detail when greater granular information is available at the time of the FY results on 21st March, including the outlook for FY23F and FY24F. We see the shares as highly geared towards creating a global leader in digital privacy and security, and the associated milestones and earnings growth. Progress in FY22A bodes well, and we also note the potential for further in-organic expansion. At 299p and 8.5x EV/EBITDA for FY23F, the stock appears undervalued relative to historic multiples, underpinning attractive risk/reward, in our view."

Interesting new article on how heat pumps "are becoming the technology of the future":

Https://knowablemagazine.org/article/technology/2023/heat-pumps-becoming-technology-future?utm_source=Knowable+Magazine&utm_campaign=b558c5be4b-KM_NEWSLETTER_2023_01_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-b558c5be4b-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D

Good news from Leo Lithium's Goulamina lithium project - including a couple of mentions for CAPD as the driller (and CAPD hold around £3m of shares in Leo Lithium):

Https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02621619-6A1131946?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

"GOULAMINA MINERAL RESOURCE INCREASED BY 33.8 Mt TO 142.3 MT

• Total Goulamina Resource increased by 31% to 142.3 Mt @ 1.38% Li2O
• Danaya Domain Resource, which is located within the broader Goulamina Project,
increased by 33.8 Mt to 56.1 Mt @ 1.24% Li2O, a 152% jump
• The result confirms the prevalence of a high-grade resource at Danaya and supports possible extension of the current 23-year Goulamina Project mine life
• Revised Danaya resource model reveals new drilling targets and further exploration potential
• Drilling at Northeast Domain is continuing, with further Mineral Resource updates
targeted for H1 2023"

"Outlook
Drilling activity at the Northeast Domain is ongoing with one RC rig and one diamond rig. It is anticipated to restate the Goulamina resource in H1, 2023. The Danaya MRE has also highlighted opportunities to further extend the Danaya Mineral Resource with additional resource drilling"

"RC drilling was completed by AMCO Drilling SARL (AMCO), and Capital Drilling (MALI) SARL (Capital), using nominally 5.5-inch diameter equipment, with a face sampling downhole hammer. Core drilling equipment at Danaya was supplied and operated by AMCO and Capital. Drillhole diameter ranges from PQ size within highly weathered and oxidized zone and standard HQ size diameter within fresh rock. Diamond holes were drilled from surface or as diamond tails on RC holes. Core was orientated down hole so that structural measurements could be taken. Diamond
Core drilled by Capital drilling in the 2022 campaign was not assayed in time to be included in the Danaya MRE, although the geological and structural information was used to define the pegmatite solids."