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Shire's PBT last year was £2.78m, so if you tax at 19% CT for 2022 and then times 80% for VLE's ownership - then the net is exactly £1.8m.

Give that a conservative P/E of say 7 and it's worth £12.6m (and of course there's the freehold property and other PPE to consider as well). Given Shire's growth a higher P/E of 10 would bring in £18m.

When VLE acquired Shire it was making annual losses of £0.3m.

Add that on to the current £35.6m net assets (with a £20.8m cash pile) then the upside to the current £28m m/cap is substantial.

Newly tipped tonight by the IC's Simon Thompson (I suspect he's following me around my favourite companies as yesterday he tipped MWE too!):

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2023/03/14/a-cash-generative-tech-company-offering-a-repeat-buying-opportunity/

OT : cheers magictrades, appreciated. I suspect the uptrend here will be resumed quickly given the level of institutional support FNX seems to attract.

In cae anyone missed tonight's late RNS, nice to see VLE rightly considering 1085p good enough value to buy back another £21,700 of shares:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/volvere-VLE/share-news/Volvere-PLC-Transaction-in-Own-Shares/90502193

Intriguing excerpt from Endeavour Mining's accounts release a few days ago.

It seems Endeavour sold a mine to Allied Gold (in which CAPD holds around a $10m stake) in 2021 for which it received part-consideration of $40m of Allied Gold Corp shares. These can be sold "back to Allied at the issue price which expires on 31 December 2022 or earlier if Allied conducts an IPO before then".

This option has now been "extended to 31st December 2023".

Which kinda suggests that Allied still have intentions of IPOing, and hopefully that IPO may well happen this year.

See note 4c on page 26:

Https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/11cd2408-3276-4f48-be08-f9eb26d5eef0

"c. DIVESTITURE OF THE AGBAOU CGU

On 1 March 2021, the Group completed the sale of its 85% interest in the Agbaou mine CGU to Allied Gold Corp Limited ("Allied"). The consideration upon sale of the Agbaou mine included (i) a cash payment of $16.4 million (net of working capital
adjustments of $3.6 million upon closing), of which $10.5 was received in the year ended 31 December 2021; (ii) $40.0 million in Allied shares of which Endeavour has the option to sell the shares back to Allied at the issue price which expires on 31 December 2022 or earlier if Allied conducts an IPO before then. The option was subsequently extended to 31 December 2023 (note 14)"

Kestrel continue to buy, another 25k taking their stake to 48.1m shares or 23.09%:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/centralnic-CNIC/share-news/CentralNic-Group-PLC-Directors-Dealings/90492766

Gold is now above $1,900, which has to be good news for CAPD's customers.

And Golden Rim (CAPD are the driller) has announced overnight it's "commenced a 5,000m aircore drilling (AC) program at its flagship Kada Gold Project", together with ongoing diamond drilling, and "new multiple prospective target areas" have been discovered:

Https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02643274-3A614805?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

Cloudsurfer, CAPD's investements have increased from a cost of $12.5m to their current value of $38.7m in a matter of just a few years. I'd call that highly successful.

Not only that, the major investment in the privately held Allied Gold Corp may pay off handsomely as and when Allied decides to resurrect its IPO plans.

The gold price is volatile and therefore so are companies in that sector. CAPD were wise enough to spot an opportunity and invest at the bottom of the market when those companies were desperate for cash - they've aren't investing any more now and have reaped the rewards. The investee stakes may rise and fall, but since CAPD's m/cap barely reflects any value from this side of the business it's really a sideshow in terms of artificial/paper gains/losses.

The real benefit will come when CAPD realise a load of cash from selling these investments and the market is suddenly surprised at CAPD's asset base which they hadn't appreciated previously. In the meantime, there will be paper investment losses in the upcoming results, but these are an irrelevance compared to (1) the terrific performance of the core business and (2) the tripling of CAPD's investment portfolio to date, even to the current lower levels.

The H1 results today look pretty good as regards:

- the continuing business is trading well, with revenues and EBITDA up 25% and 18%
- the sale of Croma Vigilant looks set to complete within the next couple of months (before the 30/6 year end)
- CSSG still have a £0.6m cash pile. The m/cap is only £7.5m, yet Vigilant is a business which had almost £16m turnover in H1 and potentially £0.8m or more PBT per annum for a buyer based on prior results - this can surely achieve a sale of anything from £3m at minimum and maybe much more?
- the iLOQ partnership looks to be very good news and has started well

Hopefully the share price is now at the bottom and perhaps can begin to bounce from here.

as a Buy overnight - - here's a link:

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2023/03/13/a-lowly-rated-technology-group-offering-a-prospective-5-5-yield/

Good to see also today's RNS noting that MWE have sold their 150,000 treasury shares at 50p. A nice boost to MWE's cash, and presumably an institutional holder has increased its stake.

The year end update is out - Shire Foods have had a cracking year, with PBT up to £2.78m (from £2.14m).

Given the surrounding cost and labour environment you have to give immense credit to them. Shire is now a substantial business and appears to be well placed in its sector given its links with the fastest growing players.

VLE now have £20.8m cash against the £24.8m m/cap, and that will have risen by the amount of the Indulgence property sold since the year end (£1.5m or so from memory?) with one more property to go. The Indulgence losses are substantial but now historic, and going forward VLE will have a clean Shire-based business.

Plus it's good to hear:

"Since the year-end, labour market challenges and raw material price pressures have shown some signs of abating. Early indications are that the focus on margins in Shire has ensured that we have commenced 2023 with appropriate customer pricing."

And there are further encouraging noises about potential further acquisitions. Maybe with Indulgence now gone we'll get action on this front.

ETP have confirmed that EBITDA will be in line with expectations, giving rise to around 25p EPS as "within the range of market expectations". This despite some delayed work leading to revenues being shifted to the current year, as margins were higher than expected.

Most importantly, 99% of this year's revenue forecast is alreday covered from order books! No wonder they state they're "confident in the Group's outlook for the year ahead".

With consensus of 28.2p EPS for this year ETP remain good value on a P/E of only 12.4.

FYI here's today's Finncap investment summary and rationale for their 270p target price:

Extracts:

"Strong H1 23 with +12% gross profit and +18% DPS growth

Fonix has announced strong H1 23 results, with +12% gross profit growth, +12% adjusted EBITDA growth, and underlying net cash of £8.4m due to EFCF of £5.1m. Commercial customers have driven mobile payments and mobile messaging growth of +13% and +18%, and gross profit as a % of TPV has increased to 5.7% from 5.1% in H1 22 due to lower charity volumes.

The 3 March ITV announcement makes Fonix the de facto SMS interactive services partner for broadcasters in the UK, and it is focused on becoming the leading payments partner for all broadcasters in Ireland in the next 18 months, following a second tier-1 broadcaster win and Irish mobile network operators experiencing levels of payments growth that have never been seen in the market.

Firm control of operating costs has enabled adjusted EBITDA growth of +12%, including investment in further international expansion, upgrading the infrastructure to double the platform’s peak capacity to over 5,000 transactions per second, and scaling the sales team. 83% of adjusted EBITDA has converted to underlying EFCF of £5.1m, which has driven net cash to £8.4m after the final FY22
dividend payment of £4.5m. The board’s confidence has enabled an +18% increase in the interim DPS to 2.36p, and the outlook confirms that trading is comfortably in line with expectations.

After we upgraded FY24 gross profit and adjusted EBITDA by +3% on 3 March, we increase FY23 EFCF by +2% due to lower working capital, and conservatively reiterate our remaining forecasts and target price. As Fonix continues to deliver on the investment case, we look forward to further updates on international launches, new contract wins, and FY23 results in September."

"Valuation

- We value Fonix at 270p based on 3% FY24 EFCF and dividend yield, and it is currently trading on 17x 12-month forward EV/EBITDA with +12% NTM EBITDA growth, 4% EFCF yield, and 3.5% dividend yield.
- Fonix’s listed peers are currently trading on 8-19x EV/EBITDA with -2% to over 100% NTM EBITDA growth, and average EFCF yields of 2-4%.

We value Fonix at 270p based on 3% FY24 EFCF and dividend yield, and it is currently trading on 17x 12-month forward EV/EBITDA with +12% NTM EBITDA growth, 4% EFCF yield, and 3.5% dividend yield".

The Invwstor Meet presentation is well worth a listen. Moni sounds as bullish as I've ever heard him in reiterating the opportunities in 5G, water management and expanded defence spending budgets.

A couple of points:

- Mottech's smart cities solution is being expanded from fountains to lighting etc given the information it provides from its sensors. Once this has been completed in the first munipality being finished now, it can be rolled out and duplicated

- in 5G, MWE are now working with 5 of the top 7 leading OEMs

- the ABS antenna solution is being trialled with several customers and shoudl be fully commercialised early next year

- more acquisitions are being considered and can be financed internally across any or all of the three divisions

Both Shore Capital and Allenby have retained their 90p fair value for MWE's shares.

So VLG have confirmed there's no problem as regards SVB. The share price fell 4p on Friday due to speculation on this issue, yet has so far only bounced back 2p - and the trading commentary in today's RNS provides even more reassurance:

"The Group's audited results for the year ended 31(st) December 2022 are expected to be published around the end of the first quarter of 2023 and the Group expects that these will be at least in line with market expectations. Trading momentum has continued in the first two months of the current year and the Group has seen strong cash generation as expected which has reduced Group leverage to 1.3x net debt to Adjusted EBITDA. Liquidity is sufficient and stable, and the Board do not envisage any impact or risk to the business arising from events at SVB.

Jerry Randall, Chief Executive Officer, commented: "The Group has had a strong start to 2023 and seen very good cash generation off the back of strong trading in Q4 2022, and is trading in line with our expectations. The acquisiton of HL Healthcare Limited is integrating well into the Group and contributing positively to EBITDA and cashflow. As stated the Group has no deposits with Silicon Valley Bank, and so is not exposed to any deposit risk."

The 2022 results are nicely ahead of both Shore's and Allenby's expectations.

4.21c EPS compares to forecasts of 4.1c, and 3c dividend is nicely in line and represents a 5.2% yield! The results are even better considering the impact of the withdrawal from Russia.

Good to see the cash pile up over 50% since H1 at $8.1m.

All three divisions are trading well and each have great prospects in defence, 5G/antennas and water management.

The outlook is perhaps unusually bullish, slightly more so than in MWE's usual conservative style?

"Outlook

The conflict in Ukraine has led directly to a significant increase in defence budgets. This increase in spend is yet to come through and with approximately 37 % of the Group's sales being defence related, it is likely that this trend will have a positive impact on the Company's financial performance in 2023.

Overall, MTI remains well positioned across three divisions, with each division backed by strong macro trends underpinning their future prosperity. The first two months of 2023 have been in line with internal expectations and judging from the pipeline of potential opportunities, the Group is well placed, supported by a strong financial platform, to continue to seek to expand through a mix of acquisition-led and organic growth."

Excellent H1 results out today - it looks to me like expectations for the year will be beaten.

FNX achieved 56% of forecast EPS for the year in H1, leaving only 44% to be achieved in H2, so even with a slight H1 weighting there's a high probability that current forecasts are undercooked.

FNX are well financed with £8.4m net cash, and the optimism about the pipeline of new work and the general H2 outlook is encouraging. The H1 results from the growth in Ireland look great:

"by their own admission, since connecting Fonix, Irish mobile network operators are experiencing levels of growth never seen in the market before"

And the operational highlights are worth repeating, particularly the spectacular recurring/repeating income:

" -- Record levels of commercial trade were achieved in December, including 85 million SMS messages processed in a single month.

-- A second, tier 1 media went client live in the Republic of Ireland, our first international market.

-- Significant upgrade of technical infrastructure, doubling the peak capacity of key Fonix products.

-- Fonix continues to maintain high client retention, with over 99% of income of a repeating nature.

-- 100% platform uptime in the period.

-- Fonix's key service lines of payments and messaging have each grown in the Period and the business retained a growing pipeline of enterprise prospects going into H2 FY23.

Post Period End

-- ITV Plc, the leading UK TV broadcaster, has agreed to gradually extend its commercial partnership with Fonix to include SMS billing payments, alongside the existing relationship for carrier billing and charity services."

A comprehensive new 19 page Edison research note is just out today - it has a 279p price target, i.e almost double the current share price:

Https://www.edisongroup.com/research/clarifying-the-narrative/32062/

New support for RNWH from Peel Hunt, who in analysing Hill & Smith's results yesterday see RNWH as a much better bet:

Https://citywire.com/funds-insider/news/expert-view-hotel-chocolat-admiral-hill-and-smith-cls-and-breedon/a2411226

‘The (Hill & Smith) shares trade on 16 times our upgraded full-year 2023 earnings per share forecasts… and now appear to be fairly valued. We downgrade our recommendation… following a strong recent share price performance, and see more upside for Renew, which is considerably cheaper despite generating higher returns on invested capital, higher historic earnings growth, and having a lower risk profile.’

Kestrel continue to buy, now almost another 50k shares and they're up to 23.08%:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/centralnic-CNIC/share-news/CentralNic-Group-PLC-Directors-Dealings/90456582

Hopefully the trade of over 5m shares yesterday signals the close of an overhang - onwards and upwards!

Hi Cloudsurfer737. The investment portfolio is essentially a complete bonus, since it's not valued in the share price at all.

One of the largest components in the portfolio is around a £10m investment in the privately held Allied Gold Corp, which was mooted to IPO in 2021 but then Covid etc intervened. Hopefully the IPO will be resurrected, at which time there could be substantial upside. The other investments have been highly successful to date, and given that most of them have been successfully financed now going forward in booming gold market conditions one can hope for further upside.

In summary, Tamesis Partners' latest forecast for last year is 15.7c EPS, i.e around 13.1p EPS, so a historic P/E of 8.1.

They forecast 19.6c EPS this year, i.e 16.33p EPS and a P/E of just 6.5.

The investment portfolio also backs up around 20% of the entire m/cap. Tamesis currently have a 160p target price.