RE: CNIC trading "at least in line" with expectations13 Nov 2023 15:40
New Edison note raises this year's EPS by 1.4% to 21.4c EPS, rising to 24.7c EPS next year.
Net debt is now $80.9m at the end of this year reflecting the buybacks etc, falling to just $35.1m next year.
They summarise:
"Team Internet Group Q323 results
Diversity delivering resilience
Team Internet’s results for the nine months to 30 September 2023 (9M23) showed good, continued progress, with revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS growing 16%, 11% and 28% y-o-y. Online Presence continued its return to form, with 20% growth over the period. While the weak advertising market and a strong comparative period was reflected in a moderation in growth in Online Marketing (15%), this still implies outperformance of the overall market. Management expects full year
results to be at least in line with consensus. We make no material changes to our P&L estimates and continue to see scope for upside. We have increased our year end net debt forecast (previously below consensus) to reflect higher capital investment in content and software development, acquisition costs and working capital than previously modelled. In our view, the company’s value P/E rating of 7.1x FY23 dropping to 6.1x in FY24 is in stark contrast the company’s growth track record and prospects."
"Valuation: Resilience, growth prospects not priced in Given the weak advertising market and strong comparative period, these are creditable results. We make no material changes to our P&L estimates. Entering the peak Q4 period, we see good scope for upside this year and our FY24 forecast, which calls for 9% revenue growth, look prudent. Our year end net debt estimate increases from US$59m (which was below consensus) to US$80.9m, reflecting the accelerated share buyback plus higher capex, acquisition costs and working capital outflows than modelled. We see this as a one-off adjustment and expect the business model to continue to generate healthy cash flows. In our view, the company’s value P/E rating of 7.1x FY23 dropping t