Mining Weekly 7/01/106 Jan 2010 23:08
Platinum charges ahead
Brendan Ryan | Wed, 06 Jan 2010 15:20
[miningmx.com] -- THE platinum price has jumped above $1,500/oz, reaching levels last seen in August 2008 and pulling the share prices of SA’s top three platinum groups back to near their 12-month highs.
Platinum closed in New York at $1,527/oz on Tuesday and has carried on upwards in Wednesday trade in London, reaching $1,543/oz.
At the same time palladium has also strengthened, closing in New York on Tuesday at $419/oz and continuing to rise on Wednesday to $421. Again, these are price levels last seen in July/August 2008.
The rhodium price has recovered over the past year to current levels of about $2,500/oz, from a low of $835/oz last January.
The price rises can be attributed to concern over future shortage of supply. The major use for all three metals is in the manufacture of the autocatalyst used to clean up vehicle engine emissions.
Demand is rising as the world economy recovers, but the major South African producers all face serious production problems which have either capped or cut their forecast output levels.
According to metal trading firm Johnson Matthey (JM), South Africa accounted for 78% of the world’s total supply of platinum in 2009 as well as 35% of world palladium output.
JP Morgan analysts Steve Shepherd and Allan Cooke believe that pressure on the demand side is going to increase following the launch of two new US-based, commodity backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
They described this additional investment-linked demand as a “double whammy” that could lead to a price surge, because it is coming on top of increasing industrial demand for the metals.
One of the new ETFs will focus on platinum and the other on palladium. The ETFs will be traded on the NYSE Arca exchange and will be backed by physical metal held in the vaults of Zurich Sub-Custodians in Switzerland.
The analysts believe that demand for platinum through the launch of this US ETF could be greater than the 200,000oz initially estimated by JM in November 2009.
They said: “We recall that when SPDR Gold Trust was launched in late 2004, it emerged as the single biggest ETF globally within months of its launch.
“We believe the response to these ETFs could be similar. It is worth mentioning that both platinum and palladium ETF holdings were at record levels last week, with platinum holdings at 681,000oz and palladium holdings at 1.168m oz.
“In our view the launch of these ETFs in the US is likely to act as a positive catalyst for the metal prices as investors position themselves for the tightening platinum group metals (PGM) markets we foresee over the next few years, at least.
“Our published 2010 average price forecast for platinum is $1,506/oz and for palladium is $413/oz We note that both the metals are currently trading above these levels.
“We did emphasise in our latest publication that we feel