Dartron, good call. I can't watch these things daily, so I tend to look long term. I was a big holder in Biff from a time after the float, but sold as it approached £3... mainly because of the debt. Now it seems to me that they didn't raise enough capital. They just don't generate enough cash at the moment. I would expect this to rise to 2.20ish before the long decline begins. Hope I'm wrong, but this seems to me to be a classic spiker. I'll look in again next year sometime.
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Excellent post. The only proviso I would add to that is, if they hold the dividend for this year then the low (if there is one) will come after the ex-date (perhaps that's what you meant and I mis-read). If held, it's worth 10p on this price immediately. So support on the downside should hold in that case. The threat of cancelling the dividend or lowering it, has been the stick with which they have beaten down the price. Once the certainty is there, that it's covered x2 and a 6% yield is available then the steady recovery will begin - at lease to 1.40. If I see sub £1 I will definitely be adding too for the long term. I want the income. I see JP Morgan are overweight for this stock now... 1.82, for what it's worth.
It occurred to me that (and I'm sure it has occurred to others already) by having Huawei integrated in the BT system it effectively gave BT protection from the US by making a US takeover (or merger with Sky) less likely - because it would be unpalatable to regulators over there. By being forced to strip Huawei out, BT has effectively been forced to make itself more attractive to Sky's parent company... especially in an atmosphere of industry merger. Maybe that's why BT is delaying the strip out as long as possible? I reckon, DT will soon need to watch its back, if it really is interested in BT. Like I said, just a thought.
According to the full article in the Sunday Times, Morgan Stanley think the full year dividend of 10.78 will be paid, B of A (BT broker) are expecting the full year dividend to be paid then cut afterwards. The size in the cut will indicate the board's confidence or lack of it. Anything above 7p for future dividends would put the shares on a very good yield in hard times and give the company cash. It'll be hard for the institutions to ignore the income.
BT has a track record of paying dividends when people don't expected them to. So if they do and pay that FY dividend. (or just about all of it) then cut it to 7p going forward, it will be a big shot in the arm for the share. That would give us a yield of 6% at current prices against a background of zero dividends from all major banks and major financials. Cutting future dividends will remove the elephant in the room (market's like certainty) and boost finances just when they need it. Should be an interesting week.
will be an interesting one... it's reported that they will only allow games to play behind closed doors. If that's the case there will be a lot of pent up demand and BT will benefit from that towards the end of the year. I'm not throwing in the family fortune, but I'm quietly buying again now for the turn around, hoping that this is about to outperform. Of course, I could be wrong. I'll know next week.
The more people talk about them, the more good it will do BT (assuming they pay one - which we'll know next week). As for Shell's cut - no one wants the stuff they produce any more. Technology is the new oil. Sooner or later the market will wake up to the fact that BT is in a prime position to benefit from the brave new world. Of course, I could be wrong. But then I don't only bet on one horse in a race!
The potential here is that you can buy a 6% yield today (assuming a cut of 50% in the dividend). Also, if they pay the final dividend, it's the equivalent of 11% on top. That's got to make it worth a punt at this price. Meaning there's a capital rise in it too. The game changer is the dividend. People are looking for dividends... and there aren't many about.
It was floated at 1.80, you are absolutely right, but then it immediately dropped to 1.68. I should have said: price at floatation. Anyway, recently it dropped below that low to 1.65 before bouncing back up. That lower low put me off, even though it has gone back to £2. I like this company, but it has too much debt for this market. I think they will be getting on top of that for the next two years, so no dividends. I see the current price as a top, not a bottom. In other words, the old highs aren't likely to return any time soon. But I've been wrong many times before! It's just that there are good companies out there with a lot less debt... and they're the ones I've been targetting recently.
Biffa's high debt is going to make this a tricky time combined with an almost total loss of commercial income because of the shut down. No wonder they were quick to cancel the dividend. Not sure where this will stop, so I'll wait and see if it gets nearer the float price.
Excellent. Only a small dip in net cash thanks to revenues rising. Debt massively down... and that's the big problem with small companies. I've started looking over on PAY and dreaming that this might go that way. The similarities in the companies aren't obvious just yet because of the revenue streams involved, but they both boast a base of a small number of shares with some large long-term holders - something I like to see in a any AIM company.