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Harold....it is an unusual share and company..Had some fun myself with a while back, but you have be nimble footed.. But a 9% spread now that's wide.....and i have not seen it this low.. But when it turns it moves and fast......a true test of trader skills and timing......as you say it is a waiting game before it reveals the next move.....but this one sometimes moves before the news..lol GL
A possible lock in.......
Hi...i always said this is strange board, nothing is quite what it seems... Posters disappear, dates change and imaginary conversations take place... SP doubles then halves then repeats...anything is possible here. This is by far the strangest board i have been on....going back quite a way.... Lol
Hi Testpack3.......i have to say i am not invested but have followed this business for a while... I am not a de ramper but have an interest in understanding businesses and potential investments... I really like the products and the line, but have struggled to press the buy button because of my doubts. In all the time i have posted here i have to say the quality of the posters here has always been very good... If only for that reason i would like to see this to turnaround into something special.... GL
Hi .......Receivables is one obvious issue that the business has to overcome... But there is another, remembering that this business is largely built on distribution and copy right ownership....if i am right and i maybe wrong..... This is purchased from associated and other businesses which DQE has a % ownership in some... The distribution and copyright is paid for up front and capitalised as Intangibles therefore the cost is not shown as an operating expense.....So the main gainers here are the Indian associates and connections and if i am not mistaken DQE has to expense some of this Intangibles out of earnings made and attributed to the related intangible but this has been small amounts.... The problem i can see is that the operating costs plus capitalised costs are very high and wipe any meaningful profit. Therefor you get a situation where the intangibles are overstated.... I have often stated that management are an issue for me here, but i do struggle with the level of intangible and a falling 2.5 year order book.....IMO it is out of kilter and a future issue along with the level of receivables and cash generation... So the real beneficiaries here are the Indian production companies and associates....since they are selling the distribution and copyrights to DQE.... So you may well be right in that one option would be to delist and restructure.... It is only my opinion but they are going to need another capital injection and the current SP would not support one without a very large dilution.... I maybe completely wrong and i do hope so.....as you will obviously know this business better than i do... GL
Get the Jolly defibrillator out......clear case in need of resuscitation....
Hi, There is nothing wrong with acquisition growth...it only becomes a problem if that acquisition is the dominant profit and growth story in the business and is driven by the original owner director.....If that director or driver of the business is on a time limit before being able to sell his shareholding and starts to sell his holding and then plans to leave...It leaves a certain uncertainty about the future..why sell, and is there an underling issue with the acquisition and the market it is in...is the growth about to change... Because the main driver appears to have been the Acquisition and the german market....The UK business is not very profitable and is open iMO to a declining market and not very profitable....therefore i would question the strategy and focus and whether the current UK directors have the drive to continue to drive growth and profits.... But, i have only skimmed over facts, so it is possible i have missed something, but for me enough concerns outside the accounts... GL.......You obviously know this business better than i do and this only my Quick skim.
A Paul S favourite with no red flags @1.19p ...director sales .throughout 2013....Integrity...... Declining market and margins in UK..... Footfall declining on high street etc....market is changing... Easy to copy...acquisition growth....Director of main growing sub has left and sold out... Possible change in main profit market....Germany.... Few red flags but not accounting.....interesting accounts only perspective by PS......Missed the signs that are market, strategy, director sales and acquisition agreement .... GL
Jolly, agree. The impression i get is one of a family foundation rather than a hard nosed business... Where the creative aspects far exceed the leadership and direction/expertise to drive the practical side of the business.. It could be that the greater % of shares in India are held by Friends, acquaintances and family therefore the market for the shares in India are more tightly held....IMO ...... You will find that even here among businesses owned and run by Indians......they support one an other and are very close knit in my experience among family and friends and within the community, It is also one of the reasons that many are successful.....but in this case they are lacking some of the expertise and disciplines required, which are possible external to the circles they are familiar with....if that makes sense and it is a subjective opinion. Definitely there is a cultural aspect, not just in POV...
Jolly that is strange.....have you noticed the impact of exchange rates on revenue and profits, this will also be reflected in the order book.....Revenues up slightly, profits up, order book down.....but profits have a high % exchange rate gain from what i can see compared to the previous year...The order book is also supposed to include a higher % of ex Indian orders going forward.... Therefore collection timing is critical.....unless they have Bill of exchange backed by Irrevocable letter of credits to mitigate some of the impact....Which they may have...IMO
Hi Pablo....The management do seem to have the ability to raise funds, the business does have a product. I hope that, one day, you mentioned comes soon....Hidden within the mess is what looks like it could be a good business. The problem is if they continue the way they are, they risk running out of time as the problems are not just financial as that is a symptom. GL...Hope it comes good for you
Indeed.....could bleed for years...unless they operate or get another infusion. Intangibles?.....growth rate, profits, order book......one supports the other, otherwise the value and justification are false..and that is one large value in the books....and nearly the value of the net worth of the business. GL
I truly wish in this case i was wrong ...... But the accounts, management and history of the business do not appear to line up to suggest otherwise....Unless something dramatic changes... GL
Here, is a real case of 'Revenue recognition'.......as an issue IMO All the indicators are flashing signals, the business could be selling on a sale or return basis, but booking the revenue....It would be interesting to see if the have any 'Terms and conditions of sale' plus any other contracts. Because if they had and they were half descent the business would be able to enforce and driventhe collection process..... Interesting case study......I am not invested, but have followed out of interest.... GL
"monies are being received on a regular basis from most of the customers, though in small values, thus confirming their commitment to pay and honour their liabilities" Jolly, Where i come from that sounds like either the 'the tail wagging the dog' or worse several payment plans in place, which would normally lead to a % future write off's, straight off the bottom line. If the products are good and meeting a demand, then the only conclusion i can come up with is that this management are totally out of the depth, bordering on incompetent.....Do they credit check, or have any international credit control experience....processes? Or do they just sell to anyone.. Shame as they do appear to have a product.....
FYI.........what's changed...
Hi I can understand that and you are right to step back and count your blessings....remember that you live in a wonderful Part of the world and there are more important things in life than investing. Strange to say i still go through a thought every morning of trying to see something new in my surroundings that i had not noticed before ...... Sometimes that new thing can change my perspective completely. Remember to be kind to yourself.....if you are tired then rest away from all of this for a while.IMO Strange one of my ambitions is to retire to the lakes.....where i spent a while as my family come from their before we Travelled around africa.....so you are blessed to be living in a wonderful place where the perspectives change by the second....so there are many new things to see.... If i am fortunate enough to aspire to that ambition of mine i will not be investing, but counting my blessing every morning.... Good luck......best wishes
Hi.....You made the right decision on GBO for you......you should be proud that you stuck to your plan on Sunday and not risked selling out when the price dropped to 48p.....that would have been much worse and the pressure to sell at then would have been at the strongest...... You made a very good profit and i noticed that here and on INCA both investments are doing well. You are doing fine my friend, and your track record of wins is a good one... Selling is always harder than buying when all the expection is there and none of the fears.... The big thing is made the decision and you carried it through and that IMO is the best sign of a good investor. for the moment although i am confident of GBO there could be a fair bit of movement probably in both directions..... As i say you made the right decision against the risk at the time as when sentiment takes hold it can move a share down faster than any move up.... Take care...... GL....... When the time is ready for you , you will know it don't loose confidence you have a good track record.
Hi, Good to hear the news about Lacey aswell... GN
Hi, your bike sounds like a thing of beauty, don't forget you can ride it as we'll.....Lol I will be back in GBO, when things have settled.... Good to hear from you again...... GL