Member Info for Ridingwaves

Locked in ......... The same mindset,. Emotional detachment....vs...cognitive dissonance

Wise jolly.......would'nt it be nice just for change if a high % of investors made money, but i guess its too easy to roll the dice than apply a little background work to stack the odds in your favour. Hey ho! That's life .....for some the excitement is rolling the dice, rather than cherry picking. GL

Does anyone know what a good old fashioned trend reversal is anymore. All i see on AIM is people buying something simply because it is cheaper than yesterday, a week ago, a year ago, three years ago. Or have i got it the wrong way round....... Roll up the next investment guru, who likes to average down following the trend. Oh, and no doubt that same Guru will be saying how smart they were and they averaged down to a pound and now have freebies.....lol My only humble advice for what is worth is time is your friend why rush, keep you powder dry and wait for the trend reversal to reveal itself. A three year downtrend says something...... Good luck to everyone here.......

Trend signals are good........further updates coming. Gl

Good luck.... Hope you are wearing a safety belt.....hold on tight it should be an exciting journey, one way or the other. Yea...they are owed a lot..lol GL

The company itself released released news on a new software package enhancing it already strong line up. To increase and improve manufacturing and industrial batch processing which inhances effiences and costs. http://news.thomasnet.com/fullstory/Batch-Process-Software-integrates-with-ArchestrA-System-Platform-20006967 This relates to its strong existing business. The company was one of the highest traded stocks in the Market in the last few days the latest speculation of takeover of the remaining business was further enhanced by an article in the Daily Mail. This is an extract by Reuters.... "* INVENSYS : The British engineer rose on Tuesday amid rehased talk that a bid of 4 billion pounds, or 500 pence a share, was imminent from French electrical engineering group Schneider Electric, according to the Daily Mail market report." There is also a likely RNS in the next few days related to the Siemens $2.7m takeover of the rail business... As Poppy has posted a number of Broker notes recently all positive.... So all good News and Views... GL

How interesting we have the Chairman Sir Nigel Rudd a serial deal maker who brokered the following deals. Pilkington sold to Nippon Glass Boots merged with Alliance Alliance Unichem sold to Private Equity Invensys Rail sold to Siemens. Then we have Value Act also an active Hedge fund who recently was involved in the Misys sell off, amonst others. Well, who are the possible buyers for the remaining parts of Invensys. There are surprisingly a few possible candidates, but the most likely are Emerson Electical the company that had talks last year and a few years ago took over Chloride, then there is its direct competitor the French company Schneider and a possible outsider Swiss company ABB. There are others involved in this competitive market. But even without a sale the business offers a much stronger more focused enterprise going forward. Value act IMO is not here for the ride, they can see the potential breakup value of the business and its attractions to the other main players in this market. Interesting times ahead for investors in the business amd of cause hedge fund poker players..... GL

Interesting that the larger shareholders now include another American hedge fund which has increased its holding in the business to over 8.3% recently. They are new from the previous year end declared interested parties. GL

Hi Chequemate a very good summary. It is a good little business with solid growth and potential. I have followed it for a few years but never actually invested, but an acorn in making and small enough to be a tasty Morsel for a larger concern. It should certainly has some potential to increase to 95-£1 based on the figures and previous valuations. Good to see you posting as always.... GL

There is obvious potential here and whilst i have some concerns, the price has come down considerably. It is a risky investment IMO. I do find it hard to make sense of the figures, one conclusion could be they are invoicing in Rupee's, i cannot believe they would do that, but it may suggest the poor revenue increase against a backdrop of so much positive RNS news that would suggest revenues increasing substantially. If that is the case then the their Debtors becomes a big issue as they are paid slowly and this leaves a big exchange rate risk. But the frustration is that there is not enough information to say whether this is the case or not. That is why i feel the management are weak and not focused on the main issues within business but more on the soft-factors and the latest creation or promotion. I could be very wrong and this is a big growth story that is unfolding and the pieces will fall into place, and i do hope so. I am just so hard to please... I will keep watching as i do like the story unfolding and if the management and figures start to reveal themselves in a different light i will definitely look to invest. GL.......

Hi.....It was a general observation, probably not worded well. Just agreed with Moosh's sentiment that confidence in making decisions on ones own is the final chapter in mastering ones own successful investment strategy. We are continuously learning as it is all able probabilities and the % ages. I have no problem with people seeking opinions and Riddler offers very good advice and feedback. Atb GL.....on your journey.

Hi disco, Why do you think that their finances are ok. Rev 45 AR 35, cash down 3m, current borrowing up 6m, intangible assets 85m....tangible assets down, interest up 2m. If you follow the cash flow through the business they appear to be consuming it...FCF. If the AR is 35m and revenues only 45m that also may indicate that a higher % than normal will not be collected or that the business is misappropriating the figures or worse there maybe be an issue with revenue recognition. If the later is the case then profits are also likely to be overstated IMO. So they needed the injection of fresh capital and the business management have been unable to rectify these fundamental issues within the business and they come down to tight financial processes and controls that on the surface appear to be weak. I wish it appeared different but maybe i am looking at the figures in a different way to everyone else.... I would like to be convinced differently. Gl.....I do like the story, but cannot get the management and figures that surround it.

Stephen, Moosh's is correct IMO. If you have built up the skill to understand the breeze and underling forces at play in the movement of prices, then you should not IMO seek others opinions which may lessen your inherent judgement if it has proved successful. It does not mean not sharing opinions, but acting on what you know and have in front of you away from the noise that often surrounds any share particularly when a movement of share price is occurring. I believe that to be a successful way and also the best way to refine your trading knowledge and strategy. Only my opinion though.... GL

Hi, looks like the Train is finally leaving the station, and Invensys with a much stronger balance sheet and with opportunities to improve profit margins and focus. Thanks for the post. GL

Are you sure, the management are not strongest. Intangible assets 85m and interest payments 4m, AR 35m. Does not appear to invest in infrastructure to support growth.... Management of business is my issue, the potential is there but i suspect there may not make the best use of the extra firepower. GL..........

Sorry ..... Cash hoarding is probably not the correct way to describe what i mean. I meant the capital value of cash being invested in non-productive (economic) investments, eg gold. government bonds etc. Resource stocks have also attracted investment on the forward presumption of growth in the normal economic cycle, but because growth in the productive economy is flat with a large spare capacity, that leaves resource stocks over valued on in many cases distressed and loss making, so in effect charging high prices and an over capacity as more resources come on stream because of the over investment and slow growth in the economy. This will most likely lead to what is beginning to happen a correction, and i would not be surprised to see commodity prices fall. This fall will possibly stimulate the economy which in turn will create a flight of an excess of funds that are at the moment invested in non-productive investments. This however could be a double edged sword for bonds and because there is so money tied up this flood will lead to over inflation and the final correcting cycle an over-tightening of the money supply and a recession. So possibly not so positive if it plays out.....It has happened before...but this is a strange set circumstances in my opinion. But what do i know......the economist and banks obviously know what they are stoking up. GL

You made a good decision IMO This correction could turn very nasty, based on previous ones eg 1970's and 1980's. When the institutions and hedge funds started to move about two months ago, was the first signs of a correction. This recession has been a strange one and i believe what is beginning to happen now is consequence of hoarding of cash and the fear of debt...instead of the usual pattern of capital being injected into large capital investments. Ultimately the sharp fall in commodities will lead to a release of hoarded cash and a boost to the economy, but how long is the question, when this happens i believe that inflation will really start to kick in.... From there a severe tightening of the money supply. Well thats the theory, if history repeats itself. So, you may have an opportunity to buy resource stocks at a good price/reward ratio but not sure Gold will be one of them. Time will tell.....but good decision. GL

Hi, A good strategy, there have been a couple of interesting articles... http://www.fortmilltimes.com/2013/04/09/2607714/research-and-markets-the-global.html This one is on the Global Magnetic Flowmeter market which is set to grow with an increase in demand. The other interesting thing is one of the big plays in this market is none other than Emerson Electrical, the company that made an approach earlier. Perhaps with the sell off of the Rail business they may come back for another look at the remainder as it will be a lot more attractive without the Pension liability which will be sorted with some of the money from the rail sale. Just a thought as it might add a bit of spice.... The other article published recently on Automation IT which improves the effectiveness of manufacturing equipment... http://www.isa.org/InTechTemplate.cfm?Section=General_Information2&template=/ContentManagement/ContentDisplay.cfm&ContentID=92887 So, things are ticking along nicely and using the proceeds from the Special div to reinvest could well be a very wise decision. GL

Hi, This is also a quite period for new until mid May when the finals will be announced. Therefore barring any nice surprise updates the price i would suspect will remain fairly stable as stated before. Then hopefully some movement from the finals and further news on the sale and subsequent distribution to shareholders. Gl

This ones expensive but nice reversal..lol