Member Info for RickEngland

same in today at 116 earlier before it dropped to 113. Although back to 116 again.

I think RR have been quite smart to attract new investors. 116p and taking the rights gives about 51p a share. Which in turn gives a 10% return on 5p dividend. Then income could well be more than 5p once the planes are flowing.

I fancied this because as long as planes fly RR get paid on flying miles. Doesn't matter if planes are half empty or carrying freight instead of passengers. Better than a bet on IAG right now.

People are seeing value at the current RR price, even if they can't use a calculator, haha. Maybe 120 tomorrow.

My heart goes out to existing investors. Although its priced for new investors now.

I'm in for the rights today giving me an average 51p a share. I don't care if IAG etc run half empty planes, as Rolls get paid engine miles in the sky. Even if carriers are loading up passenger planes with cargo thats a plus for RR doesnt matter.

So I view RR as a better play than IAG. Plus the gov hold a golden share. No way the gov will let this fail going into Brexit.

Sure its brutal for existing shareholders, but I see upside after rights (prob 5p div so 10%). Only big risk is the rights has to complete for the gov to provide their suggested funding.

Not much of a gamble for me, when wecan pick up £15k of shares at Jan 1st prices (£6.81) for £1k now taking the rights shares.

Rick

OK I'm in for laugh.

510 shares bought for £1.16 each
510 / 3 = 170
170 x 10 = 1700 rights for 32p each
Average buy price 51p

Maybe will drop more, just wanted to lock in 51p

Good luck

Rick

Interesting because the graph doesn't suggest that. The price hasn't adjusted down to 60p levels for year lows in adjusted charts.

I dont really rate the rights, at the speed IAG burn cash you really needed £10bn+ rights issue.

Time will tell. If I called it wrong I'll hold my hands up and accept it. Lets say Friday next week.

I am following the stock. I've invested a lot of time reviewing accounts and doing the calculations. I'm keen to buy in at the right price. Even it I consider the shates a big gamble, rathervtgan a solid hold.

I've note provided advice, simple suggested 3 opinions the sgares could go post 7th oct. Although I highy recommend investors review cash, debt and cash burn in the only real available data 30th June results.

I wish investors well I truly do, just be aware if the high level risk. I'll be watching on Wednesday 7th good luck.

hi Hampstead boy. Because the dilution officially takes effect on 7th Oct, and the new shares become "tradable" that day.
Remember you moving from 2 billion shares to 5 billion "tradable" shares instantly that day. I'm not entirely sure how the market will react to that. 1) will they mark the shares down to equal a 1.8bn market cap? 2) is that priced in already? So the the market cap rises, but the shares trade the same price. 3) a mixture if both.

I suspect at least option 3, which is not bright.

Personally i'd be very nervous if I owned IAG until post 7th Oct. Even if you get through that unscathed, you've got trading update on 30th oct. No matter how upbeat people feel about vaccines and 2021, the market will react to "current events", cash burn, current sales and shareholder equity. It seriously is a scary time. Even after the rights issue, share holder equity cant more greater than 3bn.

Noe compare that with say lloyds or natwest who's shares are trading less than "half" of shareholder equity. Plus they have huge capital reserves to weather the storm. Iag burned its reserve in less 6 months.

Even if fights have picked up, my question would be; what is the hangover cost from 1st July until now (end of lhalf yearc esults). I suspect its not nice and very expensive.

I'm interest in IAG when the price reflects what I think its worth. Around 50p. Please review half year accounts, to see how scary the position is.

Rick (I own 125,000 lloyds, 3,100 natwest) no airlines yet.

That RNS news still doesn't include the new 3bn RI shares. Should be just under 5 bn shares in issue. Lets see the prices when that hits next week.

IaG are still burning £200m a week cash too, excluded any hedging fuel losses they're incurring.

Price might be rising, but that's not enough to fool me. 30th Oct trading update will be the real kicker.

The more I dig into this share, the more I dont like it. £1.2bn loss in half year, "just hedging fuel". Market cap 1.8bn totally wrong until these new shares hit next week. £6bn loss for first 6 months with only £785m shareholder equity remaining (pre rights issue). If IAG have another bad fuel hedging loss, thats going to wipe out any light pick up in seats. Not confident yet getting in, need more positive news.

I've said before,I think investors need to be realistic.

There're currently 1,992,032,664 shares in issue.
On 7th Oct another 2,979,443,376 new shares become tradable.
Meaning a total of 4,971,476,040 shares are in issue.

I truly feel the pain of existing holders, although sadly the market will be flooded with huge sells. Because if existing holders have already just invested, where are you going to find new buyers?

The current price is almost at the rights price, before we get to wednesday. That was supposed to be your special price to soak up your pain. Why are existing holders going to throw even more cash at a falling knife?

Now look at daily cash burn, desperate ticket sales just to fill 'some' seats. Next year seats selling for peanuts. Even if covid ended tomorrow there is a huge job bouncing back, plus holiday season is over.

I'm sorry so say the price is looking at 80p next week, falling to 60, the 50 by end of Oct-20. Then you have the trading update which is likely to be desperate. Then 35p

I might dip my toe in at 50p as a pure gamble trade for 5k shares, but even then I think there will further slide, into 30's. Writing is on the wall. If it doesn't fall, I won't touch it, more value in banks at this level of risk.

Good luck Rick.

I don't believe the BoE ever imagined bank share prices would fall below equity (book) value, or by such a large margin. This pain is truly on their hands, banning buy backs at these prices is a massive missed opportunity too.

So pressure will be on the BoE regulator to repair the damage they've inflicted on private business. I expect the regulator to release the chain around banks necks pretty soon. Before year end now.

I also hope that lloyds has taken some derivative position to allow them to lock in a buyback price at say 25p. Once the regulator sets us free. Would be madness not too, if they can.

Holding my decent stack, for the goodtimes.

it's interesting to read opinion. I currently hold a lot of shares in banks, although I might take a dip into IAG after the rights issue offically hits the market.

At the moment those 2.5x shares are sold (rights closed), but not yet tradable or officially listed. I foresee a lot of selling when the market cap adjusts to those new shares. I hear 7th October 2020, although not seen the date officially. When RNS news for IAG declares new voting rights for just under 5bn total shares, I will watch the fallout. I actually foresee a price between 35 - 50p once that happens. I dont think market has really priced in the impact rights yet.

Add to that the covid "is it getting better or worse?" If worse, it will impact prices. Thats the harsh reality of it.

I wish shareholders well, I just feel there's more pain to come.

Rick

I think banks are now very much understood since the 2008 crash. Im sure Lloyds holds enough shareholder equity for the price to be 50 - 60p. In other words if they shut up shop tomorrow sold everything. We would get back 50- 60p (excluding unused provisions). Even RBS is sitting on like 264p a share, its crazy.

I'm on loss on these Lloyds shares with my 120,000 holding, but I'm in for the div when it comes back. There's huge pressure now on the regulator to release the chains, and allow private business to manage itself. Even if divs are banned, buybacks should be allowed at these prices. Or the Gov should underwrite a demanded buyback. I.e. they pay for the price difference later if Lloyds wants to buy 20bn shares at 25p now. Its not fair play otherwise. Anyway wants stopping lloyds "investing" in its own shares by other instruments? That works like a buyback but is some kind of derivative.

you think when 2.5x more shares 'officially' hit the market, there will be no impact? Brave man indeed.

The market is already trashing the price, at 2.5x less shares actually in issue. Now the rights is closed, the game really begins. Peoole have hoodwinked badly. I noticed all the board sold enough part rights to pick up any new shares for effectively free. No much of a sign of confidence from them.

Well jonny, The new shares are not listed. Otherwise there would be an RNS post stating voting rights of around 5bn shares. I did the calcs n a spreadsheet, but I'm not opening up my pc to prove my point. Either the market has priced in the potential new shares or it hasn't. I personally would not be comfortable buying in, until those new shares hit the market, and I see where the price settles. However I'd be keen to understand what I don't understand, please enlighten me.

correct the current share price is around 93p and you bought the rights at 88p. Unfortunately the current market cap is still based on the original shares in issue not the original shares plus the rights total number of shares.

This means the market hasn't actually diluted your holding yet. I understand this will be around 7th Oct 2020. I assume your jew shates are still pending, not in your account to sell.

This suggests to me the current price will be diluted by 2.5x meaning the market will demand 37p when these new ahares are added to the market. Or the market has already priced that in (I personally doubt that though). The market is brutal and will demand 37p. Then you have potential down side on that as millions of new shares are dumped.

To prove the current market cap check RNS posts for shares in issue (voting rights posts). The July and Sept posts state 1.7bn shares. The 2.5x dilution has not happened yet from the position of market.

Good luck. I might buy after the dilution hits the market, watching with interest. Always do your due diligence when you have your money on the table.

Why do you think the prospects are awful? Less than 6 months we're back in div paying terrority. Back has huge capital, looks like the country is leaving fear and anxiety behind now. PPI is over, might even get a plus from the huge provision. The bank is huge, the app is liked and used more during the lockdown. If you look at the annual chart, you've not missed the boat at all, just missed the bottom. Still getting 57p of asset for 30p ish.

Assuming your faith in Lloyds is still strong, why not average down? Personally I think the long term outlook is pretty strong, once we get over the Corona impact this year. The bank is very prudent now, meaning the board might book a further big provision at half year at the end of July. That could impact the share price, short term. Although they might report the current provision is adequate. I see all the mortgage holidays as issuing loads of new £2000 loans. New business lending was backed 100% by the government even fees. Deposits are apparently high as well during the lockdown period. We are over PPI, some would say if those policies were still being sold, the bank might have loads of claims, is that a win? I dont think low interest rates as an issue, the bank still adds their spread whatever the rate is. House sales picking up strongly, still huge desire to move. House builders back building again. I see positives now in a rising market. I'm in for 80,000 shares longterm, not selling. Averaged down to 34.5p now, so almost in the black.

Well sure, I bought in at 45p to claim last years div, then a week later it went to 33p so bought more. Hey ho. I'm a returning shareholder, I got out 10 years ago, had enough. Although things are different now. It's taken 10 years to fix the HBOS nightmare. Antonio went ill remember when he first took the job due to the billions of shocking levels of risk (100's of billions I hear). Capital is now sorted, risk is massively reduced. PPI is almost over. We are about to enter the golden years again, just as the virus hits. In some ways it's a blessing buying the bank on the cheap, just as it's about to turn good again. Maybe I'll be proved wrong,but I'm looking at 2021 and 2022 with buy backs as the time to enjoy the investment.

Exactly. If the bank fails, it means the entire country is broke. All i hear is positives actually. More people trying the Lloyds banking App and liking it. More people fleeing the smaller banks for the big banks during the crisis. More people holding their salaries in cash at the bank (not spending) getting next to nothing interest remember. Great for capital right. More people using Lloyd's wealth business. Damn I've done 10 trades using sharedealing service myself. Hardly any claims on PPI for unemployment now, which might have been tons worse, if those policies were actively used. Most loans guaranteed by the gov, with probably any existing loans built into new low risk loans if they wanted more funding. Lloyd's lending mortgages with high LTV, shifting to low risk last 5+ years. I honestly struggle to understand the share price.

What is the point banging on about a 2.25p div. When the share price is now 30p not 60p. Booking a huge provision in the first quarter is the banks way if saying. "We're not happy about that div, we're book a provision in advance before it 'might' hit" and reduce our tax bill. "Win-win". Assuming the bank is sitting on the cash, we will get it back in 2020. No boss is going to fight with the BoE or the regulator during a crisis. The bank has clever people, this year is about playing the strategy game. Besides assuming you back the bank, we're looking at potential 14%+ annual return at PPI trading condition next year (on any shares you buy now). We know the worse case of PPI is now over. Then I hear of huge demand on mortgages right now and wealth side of the business. People are sitting on piles of cash, no lunch time sarnies, train fares, coffees or trips out for months. You've got a massive opportunity in this crash, but you're focusing on the div rather that loading up with more shares. Strange. Woykx you rather pay 60p and get your 2.25p div?