Member Info for RichTheNewbie

It think it was a mixed bag.
On the face of it better than I expected but that's largely due to a good Q1 covering a dreadful Q2 where the advertising falls off a cliff. Without the Q1 cushion it wouldn't be pretty.
So I'm in two minds because I think once COVID's passed I think the business is good, but think there could be a lot more virus/economic pain to come (Bank of England forecast is laughable imo), so might be some pretty nasty quarters to come, that won't have a quarter like Q1 to prop them up.

Yeah I'm surprised at all the conspiracy theories I read yesterday. Everything looking pretty good to me.

I think it's a fairly terrible attempt to hype things up based on false information :p

(America being the biggest western market for this drug and therefore richest/most valuable).

Hate to agree with Nolupus again ;) but I agree an American giant, or a company with a dominant presence there, would be the best outcome.
They'll be the best connected (including political interests - which will be a factor) and best placed to push it as the solution to all America's problems.
Not that any other big pharma deal would be bad...just that might be the way best value is had.

Org30/Seb - problem is when you look at a list like that it looks bad. If you looked at a list of car manufacturing defects leading to injury or death you'd probably need 100,000 pages rather than 1 for those vaccines, and people don't think twice about using a car.
Ultimately, the overwhelming majority of vaccines have been safe, and prevented infinitely more death and disease than would have happened without them. That's the bottom line. Not using a well-tested vaccine is a danger to both yourself and society. The key is it going through rigorous testing (which can never get you to 100% safety guaranteed - but it can get you to such a high degree of confidence that not taking it is ridiculously dangerous for society in comparison to taking it).

Anyone who's an anti-vaxxer is clearly braindead. However being concerned about a rushed vaccine if it's not been tested enough is perfectly valid. That's why if they develop a vaccine it will have to be well tested to confirm its safety in order to encourage wide uptake. There's nothing wrong with that. Being against any vaccines, even when they've been well tested, is moronic and dangerous.

Still 100% keen and anti-vaccination people are just plain bonkers imo.

I wish they'd make all vaccination compulsory in the UK for pretty much everything. There are too many morons out there who risk their own and other people's health because they believe some nonsense an idiot on Facebook has written about vaccines which is completely false. Of course with COVID it'd have to be well tested first.

Chrishar - it's hard to value COPD now since, if there's a deal, it'll be for the drug as a whole almost certainly, and not just tied to COVID or COPD. I'm definitely not "all in" anymore. As that would be insane to risk that kind of money. Could probably still buy another small house though if there was a big deal :p (although in most parts of the country rather than round here)
I'm sure good COPD results will help the SP and I remain of the opinion there's a good chance they'll see good impact. However on that front, I don't know how the market will react, to the results being "good", but nowhere near as marked as the COVID ones. The obvious reason I'm saying that is that COVID has the particular feature of disabling IFN-B production and that won't be present in the COPD trial. So I'm wary of them getting SOME improvement but people not being as impressed following the big COVID impact.
With COVID, I'm also wary because they'll need to get a deal done soon, and get it to market quickly, because even if a vaccine never comes, even places like America can't afford to go on with their mismanagement of it forever, and cases will eventually be reduced in line with over here/Europe. Ie, still circulating, but cases not in the millions in the richer western-world. So I believe there's a very finite window for megabucks to be made from a treatment.
Then you've got the more speculative option of SNG001 helping for other viruses in general - and trying to put a value on that is a lot more speculative - rather than having lots of trial data to back it up.
That's why I say I can see deals for significant amounts of money....but also there are various reasons I would be cautious rather than "all in".
So I've not really changed my opinion on SNG/SNG001...just accepting of the fact it's not a forgone conclusion and managing risk appropriately. If I had £5m in the bank maybe I would risk £250,000 on this.....but I don't so I won't ;)

Most of the pharma-biotech giant's entire market caps are in the $10-100bn range with a handful in the 100-400 range (though those often do more than just drug related stuff).
So saying 378bn is indeed just insane. That's basically saying this will become basically the biggest pharma/biotech company in the world overnight.
Personally I always had a £50-200m as an MCAP target for this on COPD trial success (back when COVID wasn't a thing).
The COVID thing is harder to value as no bidding company will know how long it's going to be around (whether a vaccine will come etc).
To see higher valuations there will NEED to be multiple large pharma's bidding up against each other. I could see deals worth $500m to $5bn. Or nothing at all. That's the gamble now imo. I would be extremely surprised if it was anything much more than that.

Hadn't seen that particular one. I don't think enough of is made of the risks of the virus and people aren't that worried about it. People don't think they'll get it and think that if they do they'll probably recover and be fine within a week or two.
Having said that...off to buy a car. Ciao for now ;)

Listening to BBC Breakfast this morning, who had a range of doctors and a professor of epidemiology on, it appears clear, that for many people, the effects of the virus linger on long after they recover to "full health".
Any treatment that can help people fight it off better will be hugely important. America probably now has a ticking time-bomb of people who'll have long-term poorer health because of the virus, with over 2m people having had the virus, and probably many many more to come.

Lol. I imagine that's much the same as their "cure" for being gay too.

Hah - that reminds me of Homer Simpson's Tomacco :)

You've got the Polar numbers the wrong way round ;)

Although just to make you laugh, I clicked the wrong box, and only got 7500 shares, instead of £7500 like I meant to. Woops.

Managed to get a few more at the open but can't get a quote anymore.

Cured by light in the body eh...
You taking up Donald Trump's suggestion of sitting on a torch to cure coronavirus?
I don't think it'll work personally...but you might enjoy it ;)

Imagine the major investors had just held their nerve and not tanked the Woodford fund by mass selling leading to administration...it'd probably be the best performing fund on the market right now (and of recent years)!
They're probably more to blame than Woodford for people's heavy losses in the fund.