Member Info for RichTheNewbie

mcklondon - sentiment can change fast. Let's say Boohoo put out a good next set of numbers, showing decent growth and still making money, suddenly the logistics concerns would look a bit limp, and could spark a competition between institutions to load of whilst its cheap. Even a shorter with deep pockets would then be trying to escape having made their corn already and fuelling the fire of a recovery.
So whilst this drop is self-fulfilling currently, the turn and bounce, if/when it comes, could be equally self-fulfilling, and potentially considerably faster.

Most of you are going round in circles here. Every little bit the SP falls, a new set of straws get clutched at, and some of you even sell or reduce your positions.

If you can’t see it, this is how shorting a share like this can make money, they short it a bit…but you’re doing the real work for them, worrying about everything day after day, ignoring BOO’s actual performance, and becoming blinded by the share price, then even adding to the selling pressure yourself in some cases, by selling out or reducing your position.

For this to not be incredibly undervalued there would essentially need to be incredible logistics issues/costs that ultimately don’t affect all their peers. There has been no evidence of this this far and seems like they’ll be impacted like everyone else but no reason to think this is the end of the world or that it will last forever.

Relax. This is a great opportunity. That may never return once the shorts start to close.

(as well as the ESG waffle - I should have added the other valid concern - for people to worry about, being logistics costs - but that is much the same issue for many businesses or their rivals, so arguably a bit of a null point, but is still something that could put people off, and therefore be appealing for a short, so should have been mentioned as the useful perceived negatives to play on)

It's quite simple to explain.
Markets react to the upside AND downside far more than they ever have.
Whether it's algo-trading, HFT, shorting, etc etc, markets have never been so quick to swing wildly.
It's annoying if you're holding and something's heading south and not yet bounced but it is what is.
It's less annoying if you're not holding and manage to buy in anywhere even vaguely near the bottom.

One of the biggest misconceptions is the short-term price is an accurate reflection of a company's worth or prospects. Doesn't take a genius to realise that - when you look at all the companies who have doubled/tripled/halved/etc - in a short space of time in the past year or two. Many with absolutely no real correlation to their prospects in the real world.

A shorter doesn't need to know anything to make money from a share like this, you can rely on people's worries about a falling SP, pinning it on ESG waffle that's overblown in the media, and get a nice downtrend going, before you start closing out, and probably buying a load at the bargain price for the ride up....all the while the business could have been operating very nicely....but that's irrelevant. Story and sentiment is what moves the price in the short term.

And then filter for just those lines obviously and repeat.

Just filter it to remove the algo flagged lines, then sum the value column, and exclude things like the uncrossing auctions depending on your point of view (no right answer - but I chose to).

Download the data from the stock exchange website on the page you linked to and manipulate in Excel.

Ignoring the UT's there's about 6.2m of algo trades and 8.2m of non-algo trades.

Seems like quite a high proportion. So had a look at Marks and spencer, and they had about £3.78m in algo trades and £9.57m of others. Checked Fever Tree and they had about £1m of algo trades and £3.5m of others.

This is a very small quick sample as a test...but there does seem to be a high proportion of algo trades on this compared to other relatively comparable companies.

The very fact it's even possible is ridiculous CaneToad rather than the fact people can code to use it (which is no surprise if it is possible).

It smacks of outright deliberate rigging by design, because making it possible to jump the queue is pretty much something you'd have to design in, rather than have to try to prevent.

The code on the trades bit is interesting.
I've noticed this before when I've tried to put in an order, and the instant it goes in, another order (or orders) instantaneously gazump it and moves the market. Probably wasn't on this stock but the market is definitely extremely dodgy and in dire need of proper regulation.

It's more the supply chain issues in general most likely. Probably being read across from ASOS which is down heavily. Which means there can be a massive surprise to the upside if this continues to perform well.

Personally I think it's quite simple...:
- ESG issues aren't gonna nobble the business and I think it's a bit niave to think they will, that doesn't mean some might not be put off buying at present due to the waffle in media (as I say - it's not stopped Nike or any other well known business that makes clothing/footwear - despite scandals about labour).
- The global logistics/shipping pressures at the moment could increase costs, as they might for many businesses, but in the end the strong will win out, and Boohoo have been shown to be a lean/shrewd operator thusfar

So imo, predicting the short term price is a fools errand (on this and many other stocks), and this is simply a gamble as to whether boohoo's costs will have gone up so much they're not making plenty of money. Personally I don't think there's any evidence of this and they still seem to be reporting good numbers each time. So eventually I think the share price will turn, bounce, and then do extremely well.

The BoD don't control the share price. That's just silly.

Yeah, I noticed that too, drive down the price in normal hours and try to pick up as many as possible in the closing auction perhaps.

Personally I suspect you're seeing some sale and repurchases. Booking a loss to offset gains on other things in current period. Easy way to save yourself a pretty penny in tax from a year where many things have risen a lot.

And although it MIGHT not appear in their interest - a quick big payday might actually appeal - you never know.

Yeah - I don't imagine it'd be in the BOD's interest...however get a few other major shareholders onside (line up some longs - nudge nudge wink wink) and maybe there'd be a way to achieve it. Stranger things have happened.

You've got to imagine if the SP falls much further it'll become ripe for a takeover.
It's crazily cheap by the standards of any growth company these days.
Hell, who knows, perhaps there's a little bit of shorting going on to facilitate it. It's a lot easier to propose a takeover at 250p when the share price is 150p than when it's over 200p ;)
Companies listed over here are being picked off left right and centre by private equity.

playing=planning

Smartie06 - well some are. Mine has. It won't make feck all difference to BooHoo's sales though as I don't know anyone who was playing to buy anything new to wear for it.....apart from me and that lovely dress....;)

You could actually make a case that even if people did buy things just for their xmas party....it'd be be much more likely to be the costly "wear once and return" games the company would want to avoid anyway!