RE: SP5 Nov 2019 21:48
You can think of the NAV closer to “what FFWD paid for their assets” rather than “what the company is worth now” (barring any event subsequent like a raising that might let them reasonable ascribe a higher value).
However, if you’re going to go for “true NAV”, as you put it, then you’d be in the realms of estimating as doggo described, and that’s very difficult to do accurately.
Everyone’s assessment of progress and therefore current value will differ, but not only that, stocks, to varying degrees, will be priced on future potential, the scale of that potential, and the likelihood of fulfilling it. So you’d have to price that in for each investment. Then you’d have to tot everything up and come to a valuation.
Whatever figure you come to nobody can say you’re wrong. They could however reasonably argue why they think you’re badly wrong (whether too low or too high).
It’s safe to say most of us would argue the market valuation here has been undervaluing progress, potential, or both.....but then the fact this can happen (and does regularly on AIM) is also a major reason you can make a lot of money on AIM (with a bit of luck!)