RE: Faridoxorubicin (AVA6000) market potential24 Dec 2025 16:08
Hey folks, just wanted to share some thoughts on AVA6000 from Avacta—I've been following this one closely, and while there's some hype around the early data, I think we need to pump the brakes. Sure, the safety profile looks decent (no major cardiotoxicity like with plain old doxorubicin), but let's be real: the efficacy signals so far are pretty underwhelming for a supposed game-changer.
In the Phase 1 trials, we're talking about a measly 6% objective response rate in salivary gland cancer patients—only a couple of partial responses out of dozens, with most just holding stable or showing minor shrinks. Disease control is high at 90%, but that's not exactly blowing the doors off for refractory cancers where you'd hope for more dramatic tumor melting. And this is in a small, early cohort; bigger trials could dilute that even further.
Don't get me started on the competition— this space is crowded as hell. You've got established ADCs like Trodelvy and Enhertu already approved and pulling in big responses (20-40% ORRs in their niches), plus other FAP-targeted players like AstraZeneca's stuff or BioXcel's candidates nipping at their heels. AVA6000's peptide approach might sound clever, but it's unproven at scale and could get overshadowed fast if it doesn't deliver knockout punches.
Worse, the stock (AVCT) has absolutely tanked recently—down from over 80p mid-December to around 50p now, wiping out gains and leaving it trading at depressed levels. With cash burning and a hefty convertible loan note (CLN) hanging over them (principal still in the £20M+ range after payments), funding's gotta be a nightmare. Low share price means any new raise would be massively dilutive and risky—could spook investors even more, especially if they need to tap the market again soon to keep the lights on past Q1 2026. Partnering talks are whispered about, but nothing concrete, and in this environment, Big Pharma might lowball or walk.
I'm not saying it's doomed, but this feels like a high-risk punt with limited upside visibility right now. Anyone else seeing red flags, or am I missing something?