SP Angel Update - Broker target 92p31 Jul 2019 10:42
Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) 25.5p, Mkt Cap £285m – EBITDA rises by 15% year on year as management drive down unit costs
(Bushveld Minerals owns 74% of Vametco, 84% of Bushveld Energy in South Africa, 100% of Lemur Holdings, 9.5% of Afritin)
(Vanchem: Our figures include Vanchem production of November and December of ~80mtV per month)
BUY – Valuation raised to 92p from 90p
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Bushveld Minerals report a significant improvement in vanadium production in the second quarter.
Production of ferro-vanadium sold as Nitrovan rose by 14% in the quarter to 742mtV vs 649mtV in Q1 taking production to 1,392mtV through the first half.
A series of improvements have increased production through mine scheduling enabling better quality material into the kiln together alongside better feed and recovery rates.
Production target: the work means Vametco should be on target to meet current 2019 production guidance of 2,800-2,900 mtV.
Management expect to achieve a run rate of 3,400mtV in 2020 for no additional capital cost and continue to review the timing and investment to get to >4,200mtVpa based on a name-plate capacity of 5,000mtVpa.
Costs fell 14% to US$17.40/KgV in the first half vs US$20.2/KgV a year ago driven by higher feed rates, a weaker rand and other cost initiatives.
Cost guidance remains unchanged at US$18.90-19.50/KgV for the year as we expect the SA rand may appreciate through the second half.
H1 EBITDA was US$48.6m vs US$42.4m a year ago with margins > 50% due to the focus on unit costs, relatively good ferro-vanadium prices and weaker SA rand.
H1 Revenue was US$74.3m in H1 vs US$81.2m a year earlier when ferro-vanadium prices were higher.
H1 ferro-vanadium prices were 14% lower yoy at US$56.3/KgV.
Both sales and EBITDA benefit from a relatively strong ferro-vanadium price and the lag in pricing from December 2018 which feeds through into Q1 this year
Vametco also successfully completed wage and benefit negotiations with the AMCU union to run from 1 July 2019 to 20 June 2022
Bushveld Energy - Electrolyte Plant EIA on track to be completed this year with samples sent to vanadium battery companies for testing.
Electrolyte rental: The financing of VRFB’s through the leasing of vanadium in the electrolyte has got off to a rapid start with the implementation of a first rental contract with Sandbar in the US though Avalon Battery Corporation. Bushveld management are also working on a dedicated vanadium electrolyte rental fund.
Eskom VRFB project continues to run following upgrades made to the VRFB battery. The battery passed a series of manufacturer and Eskom site acceptance tests in January and February. The battery will have peak output of 450kWh and is co-owned by Bushveld Energy and the IDC.