RE: Bushveld Facts!4 Jan 2020 14:56
Attractive Commodity
Market Fundamentals: The vanadium price has risen by over 700% from the lows of US$13.50/kgV in December 2015 to a high of US$127/kgV in November 2018. Despite recent softening in the price, driven by largely temporary factors, vanadium remains a commodity with compelling fundamentals. The vanadium market remains in significant structural deficit, driven by robust and growing demand, while supply remains concentrated and constrained, with limited new production on the horizon.
New rebar standards, introduced in China in November 2018, to limit and eventually eliminate the use of inferior steels are expected, when fully enforced, to increase China’s vanadium demand by over 30%, the equivalent of 10 to 15% of global demand. The enforcement of the new standard is expected to accelerate during 2019. The resulting increasing vanadium intensity of use in steel is expected to see a Compound Annual Growth Rate of demand for vanadium from the steel industry of 2.5% until 2027.
However, demand “upside” from the energy storage applications of vanadium may increase the CAGR of vanadium demand from 2.5% to 8.4% over the same period.
Meanwhile, the supply response has been slow, with production shrinking by as much as 6% between 2015 and 2018. Supply from co-production pig-iron/steel plants, which accounted for 70% of vanadium feedstock in 2018, driven by steel market dynamics that have been constrained. The majority of projects that have been announced or are under development are high capex plants designed to produce vanadium as a co-product from pig iron/steel plants or hydrometallurgical iron vanadium and titanium plants. These projects will have to overcome a number of constraints, such as high capital intensity, funding availability and the fact that other commodities primarily drive their economics.