Member Info for richard12345

floods should boost AHT, also a reason against buying insurance shares! AHT is a form of supply chain, so its safer than end user companies. construction is cyclical, and we are at the start of an up cycle. I have one insurance play, but its international, so probably less affected by the floods. as regards SPD and MA selling. Some elite fund manager said that insider buying is usually a good sign, but that you shouldnt conclude anything from insider selling: they have to cash in profits at some point! eg to diversify. SPD was tricky for me, it has undergone a correction, I think because the December interim 17% profits were much lower than what people thought, but the Feb interim was similar to Dec, so the market has lowered its expectation and its now accurately valued and rising, probably anticipating Brazil world cup. regarding Debenhams, probably he wants to rent units in Debenhams for selling SPD stuff, similar to Costas and Starbucks renting units in big stores. economy of scale. Bottom line is that Brazil world cup will convert to huge profits for SPD, bigger than London Olympics because SPD have expanded a lot internationally since then. @ macinc you said you have 50% AHT and were considering selling everything to buy dividend ones, but you also said you thought AHT could double. also that you were researching mineral ones. I think best thing is to "hedge" ie to do a bit of each. eg if your AHT holding has increased considerably, first of all you could recoup the original money, that way the remainder is risk free as its entirely derived from profits. But also say recoup money for the dividend shares and minerals. of course you could recoup some cash also for spending! when dabbling with a new genre, its best to put small amounts gradually, in order to learn the hazards. the hazards will depend on your personal methodology, eg how much time you have to manage the portfolio. you can also paper trade to learn hazards, but trades in small caps can change the market. eg some can have 0 trades in a day, eg STB can, and your 500 quid trade BECOMES the market! paper trading is thus unrealistic here. paper trading only realistic if your trades are very small relative to volume of trading. if you are well versed with a genre you can budget. Depends how much money also. The more money the more you should diversify. The more you diversify the more trading experience you gain, I learn from every trade. each trade is either a good idea, I learn about what to do, or a trade is a bad idea, and I learn what not to do. if a holding is big, and the holding is good, its best to never sell completely. I want to ramp up to 20 shares, with 20+ I think whenever I see an interesting opportunity, there will always be some existing share I can sell to buy the new one. Planning to buy 2 after 4pm when my money reaches the bank.

as regards construction, AHT and HWDN are useful diversification within the sector, as they are relatively unique niches. I purchased HWDN a month ago, and have already made 8.5% profit, its a really safe and lucrative investment. but you should never put more than a margin of your cash on any company, HWDN is currently 8.7% of my portfolio. spread your money equally amongst the likes of AHT, HWDN, BDEV, BWY mentioned by Discodave looks really good, and other companies, preferably at least 8, 10 is better, the more the better if you have the cash. and you will make some serious profits this year, but you need to get your timing right. But even with wrong timing all are lucrative if you wait a few months. I bought AHT 2 months ago and my timing was bad, but I have made 7.7% profit already (including dividend), broke even on 6th feb. so the 7.7% profit all since 6th feb! my portfolio is mostly construction related: equipment hire (AHT), house building (3), mortgage lending(1), joinery (HWDN), estate agents (1), that is 7 in construction related. note that construction related shares have become really boosted since December, they will make huge profits for 2014, much higher than 2013, this opinion based on general commentary in various financial statements eg full forward orders, we are talking near certainty for this sector for 2014. rebalancing within the sector is a very good plan. 2 in pharmaceuticals, am considering a 3rd one, the others are miscellaneous: sports accessories (SPD), finance, insurance, telecomms, computer related hardware, minerals, 1 in each based on individual merit rather than sector merit. my portfolio is unbalanced towards the construction sector, longer term I need to balance the sectors more. its reasonably diversified within construction. I mainly invest in steady growth shares, where I intend to make money ongoingly from the share price. and I dont look more than a year ahead: I hope to keep the shares for a year, but I dont count on profits beyond that. there are different genres of shares. the higher the potential return the less you should put per firm and the wider the net. mining is the biggest returns, so here its better to put relatively small trades on more companies. eg put 10000 quid on 100 companies, 100 quid on each. eg cast a net across a particular lucrative mineral. dividend plays are smaller returns but much safer, so you put larger amounts to mitigate the broker costs. for dividends the higher FT100 shares can be good, as these are more saturated, so they convert profits to dividends as expansion is more difficult.

I have HWDN also, this is also excellent. having had a kitchen installed last year I know that this sector is big money and booming at the moment. I know a guy who does tiling of kitchens en masse, and he works flat out continually eg endless amounts of new student kitchens. HWDN's finals are in 6 days (27th), so maybe wait till those are out. you cannot go wrong with HWDN, that is a good plan. I will have a look at BWY, I have shares in BDEV which is very good, but the price is very high right now, so its probably a time for selling rather than buying, BDEV interims on 27th Feb. I wont sell because I will get the timing wrong, but I will probably top up for interims, havent decided whether before or after. I think one mustnt just maximize profits, but also minimize risk. also if a portfolio is diversified and the fundamentals are good, there will always be some shares progressing and more dividends, its more interesting. one problem is you could spend the entire day reviewing the shares! my attitude is risk management is more important than profits, eg if you have 10% on 10 shares, and one lost 20%, the total portfolio only loses 2%, the total value of the portfolio is less chaotic. I have 15 shares currently, and the biggest decrease today is -1.15%, biggest gain is 2.8%, but the -1.15% share is 4.9% of the portfolio, and the 2.8% share is 4.8%, both recent purchases, so the -1.15% is only -0.056% for the portfolio, and the 2.8% is only 0.13% of the portfolio. net change to portfolio of all shares is +0.054% since end of trading yesterday. but in a year that would be 14% and today is relatively mediocre as many are at all time highs eg BDEV and SPD. SPD good because Brazil world cup coming up. 2012 Olympics and Euro 2012 were very good for SPD, Brazil is dejavu. sod's law is that toast falls onto the buttered side. with a portfolio the toast butter is the overexposed share. a diversified portfolio is like a sphere of buttered toast, where only a tiny amount of the butter touches the floor! the gremlins then dont bother pushing the toast onto the floor because its not worth the effort! anyway, I think it doesnt matter if you offload to a share which could make less money, so long as it makes reasonable money. you can never tell which will do best, if there are many, then some will do extremely well, and will start to dominate the portfolio. its better to cast a wide net. you can then always consolidate after some months to the better ones. for my portfolio most of the winners are construction related,

50% is way too overexposed! but its a great investment, the 6 month graph is wonderful. I would advise maximum of 10% exposure for any share TO BEGIN WITH. clearly if the share is good it will start to dominate the portfolio. I tend to not work with target prices, as any guess is always too high or too low. construction related companies are generally doing well, by which I mean eg AHT as equipment hire, but also house builders, mortgage providers: essentially if a company is in construction related area AND is doing well, then its a safe bet. as a suggestion, and I could make other suggestions, sell 1/5 of the current AHT when AHT is high and stalling, then rebuy another share when you find one that is good and the timing seems right, then wait for the next high stalling time, until AHT is either 20% or 10% of your portfolio. you will never get timing right, also if AHT has become 50%, that suggests other shares were less good choices, you should probably limit your losses by selling the worst ones which you have held for some time. as long as the portfolio total is well in profit, its fine to sell of a share that is doing badly. you mustnt sell a share too quickly, often a share can take time before it does well, but eventually you need to cut your losses and run. basically AHT 50% both means that AHT is a good choice, but that other choices must be bad. you could alternate, by selling 1/5 of the AHT, buying a new share, selling a bad performer, buying a new share, selling another 1/5 of AHT, buying a new share, etc until the portfolio is more balanced. actually I find a form of sods law that when I sell off a portion of a good performer the remaining portion starts to do even better, an underexposed portfolio always is more satisfying than an overexposed one. the highs may be lower but the lows are higher.

quote: "I have noticed in the past that on the day of results the price drops but then fly's a couple of weeks after" describes the price surge today! possible explanation is someone with a lot of money interested in this, and has cash flow delays to get the money to here. I personally have cash flow delays of maybe a week to invest money on shares as I have to sell off investments which takes some days, and then 3 weekdays to get the money to my bank. the more money you have to move from other investments, the longer it will take.

I think the stabilisation fund has already run out, as I cannot see any evidence of stabilisation after about 105pm.

a stabilisation fund is just to prevent the price changing too chaotically at the IPO, its not to prevent it moving up, but to prevent it moving too fast in either direction, it mustnt move too fast up, nor too fast down. I dont know about the LSE stabilisation, but on some exchanges the stabilisation manager has to declare the stabilisation they did. the price was stuck at 260 from 835am till 945am, and at 264 from 1120 till 1240, which was probably the stabilisation fund. judging by the shape of the graph, I would say they prevented the price crashing, which after 1240 has led to euphoric buying as people think the share can only move upwards. as a client of Infinis, its in Barclays interest to stop the price crashing, eventually the price will stabilise to whatever it should be. your money is safer at Barclays than at Lloyds or Natwest, as these latter banks needed bailouts, which is also a form of stabilisation. and Co-op are in crisis currently. IMHO the only 2 safe UK banks are Barclays and HSBC, Barclays are extremely cautious. Santander is good as well.

speculate to accumulate is bull! speculate to become broke. you accumulate by well researched risks, putting money on unfulfilled potential, eg if house prices are low and rents are high, you buy to let. you have to research that there is a lot of demand, and demand exceeds supply. you can determine demand by expressing interest in several flats, then a month later seeing how many are still available.

to get live prices satisfactorily costs money, lse.co.uk supply live prices at a low price, 40p per day, click the "INFI Live Share Price" button at the top of this page.

this website, lse.co.uk appear to charge just 5.95 provided the trades are in 2013. study their T&C. each stockbroker generally has a totally different fee structure. it pays to shop around, see the list of stockbroker URLs I gave in an earlier post. Barclays stockbrokers has very good online facilities eg heatmaps, and they usually give you a better price than the market, if you are a regular trader you get a good price, used to be 7.50. But their phone service is more expensive. according to the info with the Royal Mail privatisation stockbrokers, for Barclays the charges are: Online: up to £12.95 Telephone: from £17.50 you must have done the trade by phone! only use their phone trading if you cannot do the trade online, eg with euro shares and US shares. they have an inactivity fee also.

some facts about renewables: Germany is quitting nuclear by 2022 in 2010 3.3 % of energy in the UK was renewable, this needs to become 15% by 2020 (The Renewables Directive) RO accredited regimes will get ROC's until at least 2027, all of infinis wind and hydro are accredited, and 80% of their landfill gas are. the buyout is linked to the RPI, it was 30 quid per MWh in 2002, and is now 42.02 up to March 2014. RO accreditations will continue to be given until March 2017. so the 20% of their landfill which isnt accredited could be accredited by then. I dont fully understand all this stuff, but it looks like the green incentives are guaranteed for years to come, the existing accreditations will last till at least 2027, new accreditations will continue to be given till 2017. the anti green stuff you hear in the news is probably spin to appease the tory voters and nuclear lobbies, and to deter people from applying. the talk is always by people who dont make decisions. if you research the actual green companies, you will see that the government are going all out for green energy, eg they want all houses to have solar eventually. the talk about green subsidies, is about moving those from energy bills to taxation, which in fact would be fairer to everyone. currently the poor subsidize the rich. I think infinis is good in the long term, as their revenues are guaranteed, but I may wait till the unconditional trading before deciding whether to buy. my only criticism of them, is they have a lot of debt (592.1m), which eats into their profits. they probably expanded too quickly. but with energy prices rising too quickly, this may pay off in the long term. they got into renewables early and expanded fast. they have 1.1139 billion of assets, and 0.7747 billion of liabilities including the 592.1m of debt mentioned, their assets should rise in value as electricity becomes more expensive, if they ever got into financial difficulties, they could sell off some of their power generation facilities. so the quick expansion isnt necessarily a bad idea. their revenues are steady at some 227m as there will always be wind and rain and rubbish to convert into electricity. the last year had less wind than the previous year which meant less wind energy, but there will always be wind energy! they only employ 360 people, all their facilities are unmanned and just need to be maintained rather than run. their target dividend is 6.4% if the price falls, then the dividend becomes an even bigger percentage. if it wasnt for their debt, I would buy 2000 at the IPO, I am holding back because I dont understand what their debt plan is, and want to see how the market reacts with the conditional trading. people will only buy into the IPO if they think it will do well, so it may do well simply because everyone participating thinks it will! long term the renewable energy market is very good as its

here is the list of the stockbrokers handling the Royal Mail IPO, phone numbers given for ones which are phone only. www.albertesharp.com www.allipo.com 0161 832 8554 www.barclaysstockbrokers.co.uk www.barrattandcooke.co.uk www.beaufortsharedealing.com www.cornhillcapital.com www.edwardssecurities.com www.ghcprivateclient.co.uk www.hargreave-hale.co.uk www.HL.co.uk www.havelockhunter.com www.idealing.com www.iii.co.uk www.shareprice.co.uk www.jbrearley.co.uk www.sharedealactive.co.uk www.x-o.co.uk www.killik.com www.midasim.co.uk www.natweststockbrokers.com www.pilling.co.uk www.redmayne.co.uk www.svssecurities.com www.tddirectinvesting.co.uk www.share.com 0116 225 5500 www.wcgplc.co.uk www.wh-ireland.co.uk www.xcapgroup.co.uk

to find forthcoming IPOs, some stockbrokers will email you of forthcoming ones that they are participating in. that way you dont have to waste time looking for IPOs, the IPOs will look for you! but beware of inactivity fees. and their homepage may tell you of these also. the Royal Mail IPO had a really comprehensive list of stockbrokers, but that file called Intermediaries.pdf is no longer online. technically you need to read the official prospectus in order to make a decision, as they have to put all relevant information in the prospectus. negative information will be in the prospectus, but will usually be hidden away. buyer beware: you must study the prospectus. http://www.redmayne.co.uk/ is a stockbroker whose homepage gives the current IPOs that they are participating in. they have a 3 year inactivity fee of 40 quid, if you dont trade for 3 years I think they will bill you 40 quid. I dont know if they email their IPOs. you need to ask around for which stockbroker gives better service versus lower fees. as the service and fees vary widely. execution only services are cheaper,

the BLT share price says 1970, what currency is that? and when I click "BLT Fundamentals" it says the dividend is $116. is that US or australian dollars? the market capitalisation is given as 41863m UKP, with 2111m shares. but that gives the share price as 19.83 quid. but then the dividend is about 70 quid which doesnt sound right!

when I click "BG. Fundamentals", "Profit for the Period" is 4519, and "post tax profit" is 3,309.00 but for most companies these 2 numbers are the same. why are they different here and usually the same elsewhere?