Member Info for richard12345

nothing to do with RMG, but I thought I would point out that both gold and silver are scraping along around the lowest price since around 7th December 2018.

so it could be a good time to buy in with the EU elections next month.

it may of course slide downwards and not be a good price.

the best graphing is here:

https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

but I buy my gold and silver elsewhere as bullionvault have minimum monthly storage fees of $4.
instead I use GoldMoney.com which has no minimum fee.

@dumbdog

regarding Brexit, unrelated to BP., I think the DUP idea to keep Good Friday agreement AND have open border with mainland is not feasible, because goods and people can then flow freely between mainland Britain and mainland EU by going from mainland Britain to N Ireland to Eire to mainland EU and vice versa. So something has to give.

I think Brexit is extremely simple thus: have open border between 2 Irelands, but have hard border between all of Ireland and mainland Britain. Where people with british passports can move freely with passport between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland, but goods between mainland Britain and all Ireland are subject to EU and UK customs. As regards british people settling or working in Eire, they would have to get a visa to become resident and a work permit to work there and same for Eire people settling or working in N Ireland. But people can move freely as tourists or businesspeople as non residents (visits of less than 6 months per year). Business people can then move around freely, but they cannot move their goods freely between say N Ireland and the UK.

That way Northern Ireland is in the EU customs union, but the mainland UK isnt. And Northern Ireland people have identical rights as mainland UK people, where people with UK passports can resettle unconditionally in N Ireland or mainland UK.

The DUP say they want to be treated identically to mainland people, but the only feasible way to do that is to have a hard border between the 2 Irelands.

The above idea at least can be used as a practical backstop until someone can think of a better idea.

Someone from the mainland UK can then set up a business in N Ireland and export freely into the EU, but they cannot export freely if their business is set up in the mainland UK.

with this idea you cauterise goods and people to and from the mainland UK, yet allow N Ireland people the same rights as mainland UK people and also keep the Good Friday agreement.

if you keep the Good Friday agreement, you cannot have goods moving freely to the mainland UK because then you have a porous border to the mainland EU.

I think the above is a very very easy way to do Brexit, and is the only feasible way to do it.

whine if you agree, growl if you disagree!

city of London is not part of the UK, another vid on this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05_ruP3anXA

Brexit wont make any difference to the square mile, they are already outside the EU.

you say:
"the City expects £800bn worth of capital to transfer to European financial centres in the next 3 months"

but I think that is disinformation, did you know that the City of London is outside the UK and outside the EU?

see the following video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EC0G7pY4wRE

according to that the queen doesnt have the authority to enter the City of London, and has to be given permission.

I suspect the real reason is that if the UK leaves the EU it could start to rival the City of London.

geographically it is in the UK, but not legally. That is why all the big banks are there,

BTW my decision to wait till after Brexit and put money on gold instead is proving very wise,
gold is up since then, and RMG down even further.

There is quite an accurate assessment of Brexit from 2016 here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jriQN8Uds4

Its a big bluff by the media that what will happen to Britain if we leave, in fact the big question is what will happen to the EU when it leaves Britain. The EU is falling apart, with Greece bankrupt, Italy spiralling the drain, violence in France. When Britain pulls its protection money from the shabby protection racket, I think the EU will fall apart.

@CATICHE
if most posties didnt sell, while that may be wise of them,
that could trigger a further fall,
the price will keep falling until a lot of shares are sold,
perhaps that has happened, but perhaps it hasnt.

share prices are determined by algorithms running on the MM computers

for the moment things look positive, but badness is tidal

in some countries they dont have door to door postal delivery,
instead you have to go to some postboxes where you have say a key and
you collect your post from there.

Hermes seem to give lower prices by accumulating orders before delivering,

so one way forward is to have an option for next day, but with a higher price
where a postman would be delivering much fewer such letters,
and the other letters would be say twice a week,
where some streets would be Mon+Thur,
some Tue+Fri,
some Wed+Sat.

not all mail is urgent, eg I buy a lot of blurays and DVDs from amazon, and usually its for future viewing where it may be weeks or months before I watch.

I intend to sell a lot of watched dvds + blurays sometime, and will send them by RMG simply because I just have to go to a nearby post box. Also several years ago when they increased first and second class stamps by a big amount I stockpiled a huge amount of second class stamps.

at the end of the day if the govt want to enforce a certain standard of delivery maybe it should be subsidised, the same way in a bygone era you could go to a high street opticians and get NHS gold rimmed john lennon glasses.

if Scotland becomes independent, presumably the USO will become cheaper to do?

@Grayling

sorry, got carried away by ARSENAL17's enthusiasm!

Had another OMG moment when I saw that the FT100 had gone BELOW 7000. So we are back to the start of the
millenium where it was just a bit below 7000. The fact that RMG hasnt been affected further perhaps means the only way forwards is upwards for RMG.

The economy anyway was much healthier at the start of the millenium, when you take inflation into account it all seems to make sense. The govt in those days had money to blow on the millenium dome and all other kinds of nonsense.

I am not buying any stock market shares at all until after Brexit.

there could be some real bargains then. if I buy in I will only put up to 5% of my money on the stockmarket, with max of 1% on any share, ie up to 5 companies.

rising interest rates will be good for the stock market as it will force dividends to be good.

error in my earlier post: he wanted to go to amigo loans not wonga.

I believe in free university education, but only if you get at least a B grade the year before. you can quit university if you dont make the grade. They can adjust the boundary between B and C grades in order to control the costs.

I think also the govt should enforce all speed cameras (to within 5mph) as a way to raise revenues, and also reduce the amount of people on the roads and to remove dangerous drivers.

@ARSENAL17
some people will always be poor, if you gave them a million quid they'll soon blow it on substance abuse etc and scamsters will soon run off with whatever is left. I personally dont donate to charity because in my opinion the only way you can truly help someone is with advice not with money. most homeless people arent homeless but want the money for drugs as their families refuse to finance their drug problem. go to a homeless charity, go on the dole.

before you give money to help someone you need to interview them to see if they are worthy of the money.

I lent this guy a wad of money to help him move flat over new year to avoid going to wonga, and some months later he told me how his wife blew a few 100 getting drunk over new year. I wish I had left him to go to wonga!
He did pay the money back fully, but I took his admission as contempt and lack of discretion.

Labour's idea of taxing people for having an expensive house is bad because its not based on money flows. The person in the big house may have huge debts. its just wealth envy.

I personally think that income tax and council tax should be abolished and replaced by sales tax, that way you can have higher taxes on luxury things, eg have 0% tax on fruit and veg and essential foods eg butter and flour but have tax bands on TVs, £800 tv 50% tax, £100 tv 10% etc. Much simpler to enforce. The sales tax can then replace income and council taxes. Council tax is very unfair as single people have to subsidise others with big families who cost councils a ton. single people get 25% discount, but non single people effectively get at least 50% discount by sharing, but they produce twice as much rubbish etc.

apparently the US didnt have income tax until quite recently (1912?) and was financed entirely by import tariffs.

@DerekR
it was just an arbitrary real example. I had several boxes of diverse sizes and weights.
with some RMG was the best deal, with others other companies.

that parcel comparison site (parcelhero.com) also deals with DHL and DPD, but for that example no quote at all from these 2 couriers.

I agree that DPD is good, where you can see online where the van has reached, some companies I buy things from on ebay use DPD.

on other matters, just 11 of the FT100 companies increased today:
http://www.lse.co.uk/index-constituents.asp?index=IDX:UKX&indexname=ftse_100

gold and silver have done well today but I havent yet recouped what I paid,

the best charting for these that I have found is:
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

they say there today is the end of the longest run ever of selling outdoing buying for the SPDR gold ETF.

Trump chest thumping about how good the stock exchange is, its a bubble.
Personally I dont trust government figures on the economy for any country,
what I do trust is what I see with my own eyes, namely companies going bankrupt everywhere
or shutting down outlets eg Homebase. I went to Homebase recently and a pot of varnish
was CHEAPER than at B&Q BEFORE the discount! Yet they are in trouble.

yet the FT100 index in recent times keeping above 7000, it has to be a bubble.

I always find it amusing how politicians take personal credit for how an economy is doing,
its like someone driving at say 70 and tapping the brake or accelerator and saying
that all the new speed say 72 was caused by that tap of the accelerator, when only 2mph of it
was caused by the tap

people may be reading this in the future, so, today is 10th Oct 2018 12:29 and I look at sending
108cm x 28cm x 19cm 7.6kg via parcelhero.com web comparison site.

which company can deliver when?

11th TNT, UPS,
12th Parcel Force, UPS
13th Hermes
14th Hermes
15th Parcel Force

for the 12th cheapest RMG option is £11.83, cheapest UPS option £20.57,
clearly TNT and UPS are the fastest,
for the 11th, TNT's cheapest is £20.89 and UPS's cheapest is £20.57

for this example TNT is next day only, UPS is next day or day after that,
for day after that (12th) RMG is almost half the price.

people seem surprised that RMG can be any good whatsoever for anything at all, why buy into it then?

Hermes seems to be the main rival.
Hermes dont deliver the next 2 days, only do 3 days or 4 days, so RMG for that specific example cheapest for next day.
Hermes cheapest for 3 days delivery and you have to drop off,
Hermes no drop off is 4 days.
They must be saving money by accumulating orders.

10 different Parcel Force ways to send it namely:

1. You drop off - Parcelforce 48 £10.73
2. You drop off - Parcelforce 24 £11.83
3. You drop off - 12 Delviery £14.04
4. You drop off - Delivery by 10am £18.59
5. You drop off - Delivery by 9am £25.26
6. Express 24 £13.89
7. Pre 12 £15.71
8. Pre 10 £20.26
9. Pre 9 £26.92
10. Express 48 £14.41

in terms of rival companies:

1. Hermes
2. UPS
3. TNT

without a web comparison site you will get fleeced.

re: unproductive management,

the only mitigation is that a lot of stock exchange companies have that problem, I know people at 2 other major companies where they have management who do virtually nothing. ie the rival companies may also have the same problem, ie its a systemic problem.

I think the real problem is that there is a glass wall between the people who own such companies, namely the shareholders and the people who run them, namely the execs who have a lifestyle a bit like Gene Wilder in the original version of Willy Wonka and the chocolate factory.

the fundamental problem is that when you spend someone elses money for them, you dont care what happens,
but when you spend your own money you are really careful.

the big money as regards shares is the fund managers, and they have some clout, but its the same problem they are clouting with other people's money, so they dont actually care as they get their 1% or whatever it is on other people's money.

I like that film "rogue trader" (with Ewan Mcgregor) its a real life example of someone going bezerk with other people's money

re 7% of 1.5% = 0.105% not mattering,
but if his money is max 1.5% per share, then that is 67 companies.
so his total profit is 0.105% + 0.08% + ... = 5.0% maybe,
so if instead he made 5%, that would be 0.075% so now he'd make 4.97% instead. all the tiny bits add up.
The more finely you divide a portfolio the lower the variance. eg if you throw a dice once, the outcome varies widely 1,2,3,4,5,6 with equal probability centred at the average 3.5. But if you throw the dice 100 times, you get an approximate normal curve focussed very near 3.5, ie the average will be very near 3.5. The more times you throw the dice the nearer 3.5 the average is (with probability closing in on 100%). This is the basis of opinion polls and statistics, the more samples you take the more accurate the conclusion, as far as business is concerned you can start to speak with certainty about the average. But if you put all your money on one thing, then the variance is much wilder. your attitude on those 67% companies must be the same as if it were all on one company, because your attitude (rationale for selecting the share) will determine the average but dividing more finely narrows the variance ie it enables you to factor out the variance. Its also why with expensive works its best to get several quotes.

I have a dispute with a company, and trading standards advice is to communicate by recorded delivery.

with one such letter, tracked and signed, it never arrived according to the online tracking.

I phoned the post office and they said I had to wait till such and such date and then raise a complaint,
not good enough, dispute communications are time critical.

I had to write to the company and they verified they received it. so it was delivered even before I phoned the PO,
the postman had just not bothered to get a signature.

so next communication, I just used ordinary mail, and enclosed an empty envelope addressed to myself and asked the company to post that back to me as much cheaper verification, which they did notwithstanding the dispute.

Its very embarrassing to have to communicate directly with a company one is disputing.

I think it is plain unacceptable for signed delivery to not work properly.

there is shoddy quality control at RMG at least in this neck of the woods.

increasing productivity must be increasing mistakes,
because I have had several letters in recent months addressed to neighbours.
never had so many further back in time.

some people locally have had letters delivered to the wrong street,

at the end of the day they are trying to squeeze blood out of a stone,
all the utilities and banks urging people to go paperless will greatly
reduce the amount of letters posted. Most letters I receive are utilities,
credit cards, banks, where I opt for paper as I like hardcopy.

if the dividend is 7% of what you paid then its a good purchase in absolute terms.
its not how much the dividend is, but how much it is relative to what you paid.

if share prices rise too far, they will fall because too many people buy in, and the only way forwards for the MM's is downwards.

when prices fall a lot, usually they dont go beyond 50%, so 3.00 is probably a realistic future minimum.

have been away from RMG and the stock market for some years,

decided to put some money on gold and silver as these are at 2 year lows,
but maybe that wont work out, when silver does well it goes into the stratosphere
but when it does badly it does really badly.

started up some free charting software (ProRealTime) to look at gold and silver related things and
this graph came up which had fallen off a cliff,

which company is this? OMG its RMG!
I had left the software set at RMG when I quit years ago,
gathering dust.

I had a look whether the entire market was in freefall but it wasnt,

and today a bit lower,

so decided to revisit this forum that day, and to see which of the people at the time of the flotation
were still posting, recognised several eg beatrootjuice, arsenal, grayling, jbthistle, isleworthspy, postmanporsche

I would have posted but I had lost my login info,

couldnt see any explanation, perhaps some EU tracker funds will have to sell off their UK shares with Brexit?

if true, then maybe you should wait till after Brexit at which point there could be some real bargains.
because there could be a lot of selling as a kind of fund-brexit, which will probably drive prices down
not because the shares are bad but because of metalevel reasons.

such selling ought to all finish by Brexit day, a clear demarcation.

at the moment I only have 10% of my money on speculative stuff, 5% on a company at seedrs and
5% on gold and silver. With the seedrs one I get 30% EIS tax relief if I hold onto the shares for at least 3 years so I kind of make some money indirectly. But I might not wait 3 years.

for the moment I am not participating on the stork exchange, but if the gold + silver play works out by Brexit, I may use some of that money on the stock exchange and buy into RMG if its a bargain then.

someone referred to dead cat bounce, that is share jargon meaning that if a dead cat falls off a building it will bounce, that the upward movement isnt because its jumping. You cant really tell for sure if its a dead cat bounce until after the event. dead cat bounce means its a false dawn, that the price is moving up but there isnt anything in it. Its not meant to insult RMG, but is graph jargon.

someone also was saying they wished they had bought in, but today they got their wish that the price has gotten even lower. The only way to get these opportunities is to put limit buy orders, eg put £3000 at the price you want, ALSO that prevents the price reaching there eg if you dont want the price to go below 3.20, then if you put £10000 at 3.20 that would deter the price going past there. its like in that film (Elf?) where everyone is hoping and wishing Santa's sleigh will fly, and all their wishing and hoping eventually makes it fly.

reading the info, this is potentially a huge turnaround, they are right at the lowest point, so its potentially an ideal time to buy. before the recent decline they were usually above 220, with the total change to their approach they ought to at very least regain the price of 220, but probably even go a lot higher. I bought about 1000 quid just below 82p. I have bought in based on the future potential rather than on the past performance. you can never be sure with such things, but this is potentially a perfect storm. it sounds like a gradual and huge profit potential over say 1 or 2 or 3 years.

I got my 740 from the IPO, and topped up at 1.857, annoyingly the IPO 740 was split to my ISA and non ISA accounts. anyway, my total holding is 1346 shares at 2511.45 right now if I sell out completely, I lose 7.35% I am going to hold out for the moment, firstly, -8% is the first point at which one should panic, secondly, it often takes at least 2 weeks for big players to move funds, 2 weeks from the IPO would be this Friday. I'll probably wait till Monday before assessing the IPO. Next Friday would be 3 weeks, and more than enough time for large funds to be diverted. So if it isnt improving by then I'll probably quit by next Friday. there is currently 2.45m of buying and 3.07m of selling. more selling than buying, but the buying is quite considerable. I have a watchlist of some 25 shares, mostly the shares I used to hold, and todays SAGA volumes outdo the entire watchlist EXCEPT for yesterday's Saga! outdoes both the buys and the sells. eg RMG has 0.190m buys and 0.276m sells, so the Saga trading is more than 10x that of RMG, and RMG is quite a major popular entity. so at the moment my provisional opinion is that its a time to top up and will remain so while the price is above 170. you need to keep cool, and not just panic anytime someone sneezes, and do nonobvious BUYING when everyone else is doing obvious SELLING. I am a realist and at some point I would change this opinion, but for the moment I am giving them the benefit of the doubt. you shouldnt panic too hastily, IPO - 8% = 170.2, above that it is NOT a time to panic yet. IPO - 15% = 157.25 is a PANIC recommendation. there is a huge amount of active buying just now, so BUY is still credible, I dont claim to know where this is headed, but if you are going to panic you need to panic calmly. it's certainly not like the RMG IPO which moved upwards like a firework.