Member Info for richard12345

@Yoda Yoda does look like a troll! http://www.comicvine.com/forums/battles-7/yoda-vs-magneto-1483730/ and you behave like a troll! did you deliberately choose a troll avatar? you dont like being trolled. -20% panic, -8% people panic, -10% typical panic, you say make your mind up, NO, its for you to make YOUR mind up, I was presenting alternatives, you COULD follow one of these. I was confronting the lemming mentality of sell everything because the price is a tad lower. and price at 187.75 has verified my contrarian standpoint. the original price dip looks like the instant profit crowd panic selling, which IMHO is fear of the unfamiliar steady graph. I am not confused, but it is share trading which is confusing, because there is often no right or wrong action, the rightness or wrongness depends on the timescale and your own criteria. But its best to have different options to consider. Ultimately its always a gamble, and any decision is valid. -8% is based on the fact that market corrections are often -8%, which suggests that 8% is where panic stop orders start. -10% is based on introductory tutorials on trading recommending 10% stop orders. because everyone is going for say -10% or less, its best to put a bigger stop order that way you can evade typical corrections. But its best also to manually enforce a stop order to evade price spikes. I only use limit orders, never use stop orders. But for leveraged trading you need stop orders otherwise you could be bankrupted. where is the price headed? well from say 930 am onwards on 27th, the Saga graph seems fairly correlated with the sector index NMX8530 graph, and in fact the Saga graph is an amplification of the sector's, so for the immediate moment I think its on the up. My bet is that Saga is a sector tracker, and if you buy Saga you are betting on the sector. Royal Mail is also a sector tracker, with the more recent RMG graph a doppelganger of the sector graph NMX2770. For anyone in doubt, I would recommend waiting 2 weeks before deciding, also I recommend putting a limit order but no stop order, as limit orders and stop orders act as price magnets. to fulfil orders if there arent any customers, they go for the limit/stop orders instead. Yoda: only put green price magnets above the graph. 5% to 10% is a realistic limit order.it is deluded to expect to make say 50% profit in a few days.Saga is a relatively large capitalisation,so the big money is based on smaller steps. the price right now is 1.49% up from the IPO. limit orders will draw the price upwards. if you have say 3000 quid on Saga, you could put say 1000 at 5%, 1000 at 10% and 1000 at 15%,to make 50,100 and 150 quid. non life insurance is kind of safe, long term sector graph only slightly affected by financial crisis. 2001 + 2002 were bad, no bad years since.quit if sp below 170 IMHO,limit buy at 180.

saga's sector graph is here: NMX8530 nonlife insurance: http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?type=chart&display=chart&code=cotn%3ANMX8530.L&it=li&timeframe=5y3&index=&versus=&linetype=line&Go=Plot+&overlay=&overlay2=&overlay3=&overlay4=&indicator=&indicator2=&indicator3=&indicator4=&chartwidth=500&buylines=on&triggers=on

there is clearly some deramping, so here are some objective reasons why its ok: as calculated earlier, its profitable, solvent, has stable customer base, and is fairly valued with a median p/e. this means it SHOULD be reasonable and probably at least as good as the sector. Saga's sector is NMX8530 "nonlife insurance" the sector index is generally doing well, and has been on the up since start of 2012: start of 2012: 1354 mid 2012: 1482 (+9.5%) start 2013: 1668 (+12.6%) mid 2013: 1785 (+7%) start 2014: 1822 (+2%) right now: 1865 (+2.4%) the current upper trend is around 1890, so the short term cycling could move up 1.3% Saga customers will get a 5% bonus after a year. the net assets after the IPO and refinancing are 2813m, the IPO reduces their financial liabilities by more than a billion quid, so they should become more profitable BECAUSE of the IPO, there should a boost to their profits. with profits of 109.6m, profits/assets = 3.9%, this is the underlying profitability, inflation is currently 1.8%, so the underlying company outdoes inflation by 2.1%. this may sound unremarkable, but is reasonable considering the current recession. profits/capitalisation = 109.6/(1110.7mx1.85) = 5.3%, ie the profits per share are a 5.3% return. this again is reasonable. the share graph shows the price only gradually changing, and the volume of trading graph is quite low. this probably means most people are buying to hold, which is a good sign. But yesterday there was huge selling, this means the graph is likely to move upwards over coming days in order for the marketmakers to restore balance. yesterday's selling was probably the people who wanted to make an instant profit. 1.369m buying today, and 1.572m selling, earlier the buying outdid selling. I think the price has to move up further to restore balance. its reasonable in an unremarkable kind of way, the fundamentals are better than the general stock market. looking at the sector graph, if you want a short term profit I'd say you should wait a few weeks before selling. my recommendation to short termists is to put a limit sell order for a profit of at least 5% on your original money, because the lack of trading will probably cause a short term rocketing. my comments above are unremarkably good, but this is much better than the general scene. the sector index maxima are still ascending, and insurance is recession proof especially motoring insurance which Saga do do do, push pineapple grind coffee. 88% of their business is repeat custom.

@ TheOriginalYoda Question: is Yoda a troll? ROTFLMAO

@TheOriginalYoda I am hardly going to talk to you if you dont show due respect, what comes out of your mouth, is what is in your skull, so if you talk to strangers using words like manure then your skull is filled with manure! expletives are a sign of STUPIDITY, you need to learn to use more precise words! PEDESTRIAN. my prediction has occurred that the price has gone up because its oversold, the market makers will push the price up and up until the market starts buying off their shares. if a price keeps going up eventually everyone starts buying in. even in the worst bear market, the price still has to go up for the marketmakers to make their profits, they are the bookmakers of this betting so they always will profit. but once they have their profits the price can go either way. @Terrapin "stating the obvious"? for you perhaps, everything anyone says is obvious to them, its better to state the obvious than to talk without saying anything! eg you and TheOriginalYoda, the obvious is better than NOTHING. the starting point of any discussion is usually the obvious, if you have something nonobvious to say, then say it, so far NOTHING. why is Saga good? they are a profitable company, they made 109.6 million profit last year, their profits are down a bit from 2013 113.3m but they are up on 2012 108.2m. their profits are down a bit because of changes in market premiums so its a market problem. they also have positive equity, after the IPO their equity is 1099m. their customer base of retired people is quite a stable one, seniors are creatures of habit. so they are profitable and solvent with a reliable customer base, equals "good company". precisely what I said that its a question of price, as well as timeframe of investment. if you are investing over 20 years its a good trade. It also depends if you are investing for dividends or for growth, trades arent just good or bad, but are good or bad relative to a plan. and some shares may be good, but some other shares may be even better. or some shares may be bad, but a lot better than everything else. so its futile to say good or bad, and its better to talk about options. its a bit MORONIC to panic sell just because the price has gone down 2.7% but one needs to react to this with an explanation and a plan. at 183p their capitalisation is 2033m, so their p/e ratio is 18.55, which is not low, but is quite a typical value. according to the software I use, of the FT100, 49 companies have a lower p/e and 51 have a higher p/e so its the median p/e value for the FT100. for the 1738 LSE shares that the software gives a p/e value, 18.55 would be about 43% down the list. so its fairly valued relative to the market (according to p/e), profitable, solvent, with stable customer base. any risks are with the entire sector or with the entire stock exchange.

Saga is a good company, the question is what is the right price and also the timescale of your investment? I was surprised that the price has gone below 185 because the stabilisation is supposed to stop this in the earlier trading. with the conditional trading the IPO can still be cancelled, but I dont know what the criteria are for that. there are 2 opposite reactions to a falling price: 1. buy another portion to secure the lower price 2. panic sell a portion you can combine these with 2 demarcation prices, eg buy another 800 for each further -5% but once the price reaches -20% (148) you then start to panic sell. the first -5% is at 175.75, then next at 166.5, the next at 157.25, and the 4th at 148 or select some other stepping stones the marketmakers have a huge surplus of shares now, so they COULD push their prices up to secure a profit, the price is down about -2.7% at the moment, usually -8% (170.2) is the first point at which people panic with conventional trading, and -10% is a typical panic point (166.5) for non IPO trading you shouldnt even think of panicking until 170.2 or lower share trading is ALWAYS a gamble, and the actual price graph CAN DEFY ALL LOGIC, really big profits can be made by holding while the price dips, and even bigger profits by topping up as the price dips: you must only top up with a margin of your overall budget for this approach. that way if you misjudge, the further top ups compensate. sometimes you should trade in the OPPOSITE direction to the crowd, right now the crowd is all selling, so the best thing COULD be to buy, prices often rocket when the marketmakers are overloaded with shares, and the only traders who gain are those who refused to panic and the marketmakers. anyway, the initial response to a falling price is to top up, and the eventual response is to panic sell. in the bigger scheme of things -2.7% is too early to panic sell,

I think what may be happening is this change to pension rules means a lot of people are withdrawing their pension money, and so the pension funds have to cash in shares to do this. this could cause a gradual long term crash, where for the next year or two the higher ranking shares trend downwards for a long time, even if the company is perfect. probably the higher the p/e ratio the worse the shares will fare. with the shares I sold off, the prices currently have moved up, but there is a steep downward trend: 2 parallel downward sloping lines, with the graph oscillating between these, AXX in particular is like this. personally I am mainly staying out of the market until at least September. the stock market began major long term corrections in 2000 and 2007, and its where it was then, and 2014 - 2007 = 2007 - 2000 = 7, so it could happen again. the last two times the down trend ended in spring, so it could last till at least spring 2015, and both times the stock market halved in value. if a fund has to cash in their shares, they will start with the worst ones first, firstly the ones with poor fundamentals, but then the ones which are overpriced. where a company has good intrinsic fundamentals, the p/e ratio would be a good measure of overpricing. its not apparent what the p/e ratio should be, 16 is the value the expert I mentioned says. But you could look at this relatively, higher p/e ratios will be sold first, eventually the p/e ratios could become low, that would be a good time to stock up. you could mirror this with your portfolio, calculating p/e numbers, and selling off the highest first. right now XAR is safe as the extrapolated p/e ratio is more or less exactly 16 at time of writing, and its a lot lower than most. only if the general market starts to get lower than where XAR is, could it be under threat. for this you can keep an eye on some warning shares. eg SPD needs to reach about 3 quid to have p/e 16, its currently about 8 quid. you need to calculate p/e manually as values you see online are often unreliable, eg lse.co.uk says XAR has p/e of 20.25, when the extrapolated value is 16. I think the big funds use ongoing extrapolations, that's why prices move up with time. if a price moves up in steps, it means the biggest fund involved re-evaluates periodically, each step corresponds to a re-evaluation. when the warning shares p/e value intersects, you then need to study further shares. I mentioned a seasonal trading system, I purchased this, for a given share there are season dates, but they say the dates need to be used with certain technical criteria as well, that this greatly improves the successfulness. it will take some work to see what it did for some of my existing shares, and the acid test is whether it works into the future.

according to an american expert who has predicted profits accurately on american financial television channels, the p/e ratio should be 16. if its above 16 then the share is overvalued, and below its undervalued. this does explain the current correction, and that the stock market is seriously overvalued. for example, with Sports Direct: 619.2m shares, price = 7.435 quid 2013/10/27 interim annual profits 107.3 2012/10/ profits 91.40 growth factor 1.17396 today is 105 + 365- 300 = 170 days later, extrapolated annual profit = 107.3 x 1.17396^(170/365)=115.6 capitalisation = 619.2 x 7.435 =4603.8 so the p/e ratio is 4603.8/115.6=39.83 fair price based on the above would be 115.6 x 16 / 619.2 = 2.987 so its hugely overvalued, 149% overvalued, the price is mostly froth. HWDN is one which has corrected a lot recently, using a similar calculation I get their fair price should be 2.598 quid, but their actual price is 3.343 so they are 28.7% overpriced. what about XAR? using the p/e ratio of 16, I calculate what the price should be right now, data: 76.1m shares, 2013/12/31 profits 31.86m 2012/12/31 profits 12.63m growth factor 2.5226 today is 105th day of the year, extrapolated annual profits for right now: 31.86 x 2.5226^(105/365)=41.58m so the estimated fair price right now should be 41.58 x 16/76.1=8.74 the price thus is probably quite accurate, if the price goes down it can be worth topping up, I'm going to leave my trades unchanged now. extrapolating the profits is essential to calculate the growth premium, ie that a higher growth share should be more expensive than a low growth one. in future I'm going to use this rule, up till now I wasnt completely sure what P/E to go for, but seeing so many prices being corrected, I have to be more careful. my investment is entirely an experiment. I'm going to do some more research on p/e, right now that I have sold off most of my shares, I feel a weight has been lifted from my shoulders, a bit like how you feel after you have finished some exams. if I apply this p/e rule, there will be much fewer shares I can buy into. I need to revalue all the shares I sold off, all of which had excellent fundamentals, and then maybe rebuy any which are fairly priced or underpriced. maybe at certain demarcation points the big funds do a total revaluation of their portfolio, and then offload the worst ones, and these will probably be the highest ranking shares.

AXX is one of my early warning radars, others could be better, AXX is reasonable. use more than one. with the red green candlestick graph from prorealtime.com, the high-low analysis is that the FTSE AIM all share index AXX has generally been falling since 7th March, which is 27 trading days. 8.67% lower just now. in this time, the low has only outdone an earlier high, twice: 3rd and 4th April 3rd april low (851.18) outdid 27th March high (850.73) and 4th april low (851.72) outdid 27th March high and 25th March high (851.37) but the best of these was just by 0.116%, it was by a whisker on a plateau and high-low is only reliable for shares, for an index it wont be as reliable but is always worthwhile. the price has then continued descending, I mentioned that 3 days plummeting is ok, 2 weeks is danger, but here we have 5 weeks. not good. and this is an index, VERY NOT GOOD. there was a plateau also of several days. graphs usually plummet much faster than they rise.brief plummets can regain quickly. at the moment I am looking into the idea of seasonal investing. there is a saying "when in may, go away, dont come back till st. leger's day". the idea is that successful investors make so much money that they like to enjoy the summer weather and not invest. they sell everything by May and return after st. legers day (around september 11th!). I am trying to obtain an information product on this, which is about investing seasons, where if you buy and sell on precise dates, research has shown that even in a downtrend you usually wont lose money. you then hold shares in season, the advert showed an inferior version of some of the data, and I checked this out, and it seemed to hold. I dont want to promote the product until I have tested it out myself. they sell the better quality data. but there is some free data on this idea eg: http://www.seasonalcharts.com/ the seasonality of the FT100 is shown here: http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_ftse.html this and other charts show that the best time to invest here is probably late october, they also researched the above adage "when in may..." and found that statistically it totally outdid buy and hold, this is discussed on p5 of the main document buy in may is the worst! http://www.seasonalcharts.com/img/ZUTEXTEN/saisonalitaet_e.pdf page 3 of the document says that 12th December to 7th January for the S&P 500 had a price increase for 16 of the last 20 years. the euro does well versus the dollar in september and december, probably because of tax deadlines. for 2013 for september it increased by 2.52% and December it increased 1.5% (for entire month) they say years ending in 5 are good for shares, eg 2005. there are also long term trends,FT100 is near max similar to 2000 2007,for both it approx halved.could recur.high price is overvalued.some years bad,some good.

regarding double dip, its a speculative idea of course, all ideas have their limits, and you should try to find concurrence of multiple ideas before acting on any. its generally true that if a graph rises too fast (steepening), it will eventually fall even more spectacularly, although there could be a reasonable net gain. hence value of "profit taking" . a typical healthy graph over some time window is based on 2 parallel sloping "trend lines", the actual price then tends to stay near the upper line in a jagged way, and spikes to the lower line at times. with this you shouldnt sell when the price plummets, because it will bounce back, and SELL-REBUY will be worse than HOLD. these spike plummets usually last just a few days, but if a plummet lasts for 2 weeks, that is danger. 3 days is safe, 2 weeks is danger, in between amounts its less clear. there are other patterns eg intersecting trend lines, with intersection point in the future, the intersection point is regarded as a breakout point, where the price could rocket. if fundamentals are good, you can consider assuming a rocketing and buy just before the intersection, or put a limit buy order above. trend lines are based on huge limit buy or limit sell orders, and the price will not breach these until such limit orders have dried up. when two collide, its a question of which dries up first, we are talking here of inferred nonvisible reality. the share graph is like a silhouette of an underlying reality. from a silhouette we can deduce about the reality, that is the basis of science. eg a photo is a special form of 2D silhouette of 3D reality. From a photo we can deduce a lot of stuff about the 3D reality. with trend lines, a graph can then move up a notch, where the upper line becomes the new lower line, and the direction can change. eg it could now plateau or become steeper. it could also move down a notch or just change direction. the AIM graph (AXX) has been a trend setter, while it has been rising, even if the FT graphs descend, they tend to revert to AIM's direction. the problem is AIM now has started to plummet, the FT indices then follow suit, and the higher shares follow these. AIM has moved up several notches, and now seems to be cutting back to successive earlier notches, unwinding all the progress. right now it has unwound 3 steps, and is at top of earlier trend line which went from 22 may 2013 up till 27 dec 2013. the price is also near a maximum that held 3 aug 2011 to 20 dec 2013, 829. the long term minima havent progressed much since end of 2009, 640 then, 659 mid 2012, 698 at midsummer 2013. that is probably the true price of the market, which extrapolates to at best 710 now, which would be a further 13.6%. the financial crisis low was 374 in 2009/03. even if rebounds, will probably unwind further later. this will drag huge amounts of shares downwards.

have sold off all my high ranking shares, not a moment too soon because all have meanwhile lost a few further percent. havent sold the XAR shares, as these havent been affected by the correction. the FT100 FT250 and AIM graphs are all plummetting, looking at the 10 year graphs I think this is a double dip correction: with the current correction the prices are still overvalued, and its going to dip further over the next months. I am moving all my non ISA money back to FundingCircle.com as regards XAR, as long as the sell price remains above the minimum of 20th March, I'll not panic, I got a freebie subscription for some months to some quality shareprice software, and the minimum sell price on 20th March seems to be 811.5 XAR is off the beaten track, so probably is safe, also because its near the end of the alphabet that probably makes it safer, its like if you phone for a taxi you are more likely to use a company beginning with A because these are at the start of the phone book listing. but never assume anything, and when all the circumstantial evidence points downwards you need to sell regardless of profit or loss. OPM is a share that has been totally unaffected by this correction, my holding moves to profit when the sell price reaches 66.85, currently its 65, I think the OPM graph is managed by snails. I think you shouldnt risk more than 5% of your money on the stock exchange, with shares usually 20% is at risk, you can usually panic sell before you lose 20%, this means you shouldnt put more than 25% of your money on the stock exchange. 25% x 20% = 5%. you should quit a given share long before it has lost 20%, and quit the portfolio before it loses 20%. with at most 25% of your money on the stock exchange, you then only lose 5%. if you move the rest out, you have 95% of your money still. I currently make about 8% at FundingCircle.com, so in a year 95% of my money would then become 102.6%, ie I would recoup the loss within a year.

if I sold now on the 1100 quid, I would make 46 profit. 4.2% profit in one day isnt bad! but it took many days of waiting. at the end of 28th March, its still ambiguous, the price range was still within that defined by 21st March. 21st March High of 905 is the next sign of progress, on 31st March the price may well move downwards, if it remains in the range defined on 21st that is alright, if it goes below that, then provided it remains above the long term minimum 811.5 of 20th March, that is tolerable. going above 905 is thus good and going below 811.5 is bad. the markets are governed by Sod's law, so I almost expect the price to move downwards on 31st, but I hope maybe on 1st April or 2nd for progress. I plan to sell off half shorter term, and keep half longer term. sod's law applies here as well, that if you sell off a portion, the price often then starts to rise, but if you dont the price descends. so you make more money by selling off a portion! at the moment I am wondering about going for a longer term approach, where I buy into shares such as XAR and then wait much longer for profits. one advantage of shorter term trading is you gain experience faster. it pays to move from one genre of trading to another, as you gain a better sense of perspective. I think shares have 3 phases, not all of which are attained: 1. penny share, here you buy as a long shot, with the potential of huge profits. 2. growth share, here the price grows steadily, 3. dividend share, the company has maxxed, and money is made on the dividends. as the share moves through these phases, the risk decreases as does the profits, and you also make profits sooner. looking at the graph, from start of 2013 XAR is a growth share, 2. is the phase that interests me, I think XAR is still at an earlier phase than I prefer to trade. category 1. takes too much time and is too risky for me, and category 3 is too little profit for me. each part of the development requires a different methodology. with category 1 I think people rely on ramping and deramping. some shares never get out of phase 1.

the price in fact hasnt outdone 25th March's high 894.5, but the dynamic now looks much healthier. if its not a false dawn, the price should go well above the high of 21st March, 905. that would be another sign of progress, to be Better than 21st rather than just Refine that. all this is based on my current theories about the market metalevel, it's more about the market than about XAR. whenever you see something that doesnt make sense, it means there is something to learn and probably a way to make money. I am looking at this in a market centric way, with XAR a way to leverage the market. XAR has the best fundamentals I have seen this year, so I am sure the funds who have invested in XAR have noticed this also. I thought maybe a full fund stampede could be underway by Tuesday next week

at close of trading yesterday (27th March 2014), I got a concurrence of criteria, and also coinciding with my opinion to not buy before Friday, this opinion of Friday was based on this being the earliest that you could get in just before the fund stampede (if any). yesterday's price was also a "Refinement" of 21st, with the low just slightly above the low of 21st, and the Refinement's were descending, because other criteria also, I figured I had the price near the low had there been less concurrence I would have waited further, as I was planning to buy, I decided to not comment until the trade was complete, decided to take a gamble, but not too large a gamble and bought about 1100 quid at slightly above 8.32, had perfect alignment of criteria. and bought 1100 rather than the intended 600 because there was so much concurrence. also when I first looked today the price was 830.5/834 but now it was 831/832.5 because the price had refined, this was further concurrence, with a better buy price, and an improved sell price. then went to post the comment, and the price was already above 840, and now its about 880! wish I had bought more! but 1100 was probably reasonable. I have no certainty that this will work, but so far so good. I noticed also that my trade doesnt appear in the share trades, my broker must have combined trades.

the first signal of the low outdoing the high is still holding in the sense that the price since then is ambiguous, it is neither good nor bad, and so is conformant with the signal holding. its also conformant with the signal not holding, for me the initial question is whether the long term low of 811.5 of 20th March continues to hold, that would be evidence of some major resistance, while that holds, I would say the trend currently is "changing", but hasnt "changed" yet. my approach is to guess what I think is happening and what I think will happen, and then to look for evidence of the guessed narrative. I dont rely on any one criterion, ultimately all decisions are based on guesses, and some guesses are wrong. if wrong, I then try to study where I went wrong. I progress as an investor when I totally misjudge a trade. to mitigate against being wrong, one puts a smaller trade. its easy to avoid all errors: just dont trade! one can also mitigate against errors by delaying, you can then make less errors but will make less money. but if you delay too long, then the price could overheat, and you lose money on a correction, the art of limiting your losses then becomes important. you cannot win every trade. with most shares I have no idea at all what will happen, I only buy into shares where I think the evidence is that the price can only go up. the most important thing about a company is not what they do, but whether their management of money is good. money is the most IMPORTANT thing, and so its the most important thing to manage. mismanage your money and you will go bankrupt and you will be out of the game and wont have the liberty to mismanage any further! I have seen this spelt out in enormous detail with defaulted loans. XAR seem to have excellent money management, the trickiness of this investment has nothing to do with them but relates to how the funds manage their money, which is very strange.

apologies, its the other way round with the earlier post, if I buy 10 shares at 5p, then 10 at 20p and then 10 at 15p, and I now sell 15 shares, then I consider 2 sets: the most expensive shares: 10 x 20p, 5 x 15p, (A) the least expensive shares: 5 x 15p, 10 x 5p, (B) I used to regard the sold shares as the most most expensive ones, namely (A), I did that to deter selling at a loss, but now I regard the sold shares as the cheapest ones, (B), because that encourages securing of profits, I made the change because in the current era, securing profits seems more important than detering loss, the corrections are so large, that its better to lose some money on the more recent trades to secure profits on the earlier ones. if you top up at a much lower price, you may want to secure a profit on that trade while the price is below the other more expensive trade. eg you buy 10 x 5p, then buy 10 x 20p, then the price falls to 15p, you sell 10 x 5p, the price falls to 9p, you buy 10 x 9p, the price rises to 15p, you sell 10 x 9p, the 10 x 20p trade remains stranded completed profits: 10 x (15p - 5p) + 10 x (15p - 9p) = 100p + 60p = 160p value of unsold shares: 10 x (15p - 20p) = -50p total progress 160p - 50p = 110p, major gain despite the bad trade of 10 x 20p my broker appears to regard the sold shares as the earliest, with the first example, the 15 shares sold are regarded as 10 x 5p + 5 x 20p, but that evaluation IMHO is unuseful.

today's low 870 was higher than Thursday's high 867.5 that's the first time a low has outdone an earlier high since 21st Feb, I'm going to wait further, in case its a false dawn. whatever you do its ALWAYS a gamble, investment methodology is at best probabilistic, the trade size should be inversely correlated with the expected gain: for XAR the expected gain will be very large, so you need to go for smaller trades. dividends have smaller gains, for these you should go for bigger trades. with XAR, my rebuy trade will be a small trade, probably at most 600 quid. the less you aim for, the more you get. Mr Market likes cautious people, and doesnt like greedy people, if you are greedy and cautious he gets confused and gives you more than you deserve. as far as I can remember every time I have dared to make a really big trade it has gone sour, a particularly good trade was AHT, where I put about 1009 on the first trade a bit under 7.795, that moved into profit really quickly, but eventually there was a major stock market correction, and it went negative for ages, eventually it started to do well, I topped up with 606 quid a bit under 8.535, I decided to secure profits today at about 9.258, leaving approx 644 invested. according to my evaluation process I made about 170 profit on the completed trade, with the remaining shares holding 38 quid profit. that 38 could get wiped, but I will leave those shares as a long term trade, unless there is say prolonged plummetting. when you reduce a holding, the value of the remaining holding is ambiguous. eg if you buy 10 shares at 5p and 10 at 10p, and later sell 10 at 7p, are you selling the 10 at 5p or the 10 at 7p? my evaluation process is that you are selling the worst shares, namely the 10 at 7p, but my broker seems to regard the trade as the earliest remaining buys, namely the 10 at 5p. eg if you buy 10 shares at 5p, 10 at 20p, 10 at 15p, and you sell 15 shares, my broker seems to regard that as selling 10 x 5p + 5 x 20p, whereas I regard it as 10 x 20p + 5 x 15p. my evaluation is maximally undeluded. this ambiguity means the evaluation is ambiguous, the total valuation of everything is unambiguous.

after several hours of study I have found why the XAR price has crashed, its basically the same problem SPD had. what happened with SPD, the end of year results for April 2013 showed profits up 43.6%, but the 12 december 2013 half year results to oct 2013 showed the half year was 17.4% up versus 28.3% up the previous year, and the year up till oct 2013 was up 33.2%, versus up 43.6% for April. basically the growth was high but significantly less high than earlier, the price plummetted on 12th Dec, from 736 to 674, the price then started rising again up to 760.5 on 13 jan, and then plummetted to 662.5 on 31 jan, and from then onwards it has done really well, 837 the latest sell price. I bought in on 4th feb just under 6.835, and topped up on 4th March around 8.227, this second trade not yet in profit. the low hadnt exceeded an earlier high, I forget the rationale I used, but I think it was that the price was at a price only outdone a few days for the previous 5 months, put a small trade and that worked. the daily lows versus highs are one criteria, you have to look at various criteria. the low outdoing recent highs was 3 days later. eg with XAR, 770 has only been outdone a few days over the last 9 months, what I did was like buying XAR at 770, but with a small trade in case it was wrong. the repeat with XAR is that although profits were up 152% for 2013, announced on 18th March, for the year to june 2013, annual profits were up 239%! so the recent increase in profits was huge, but less huge than half a year earlier, and hence the big correction. its like if someone gave you 100000 quid, when last year they gave you a million quid, you would have to sell off the 1.5 million quid mansion you bought on credit. its the same phenomenon as with SPD, except its much bigger, so as suggested earlier, once the correction completes, the share price will grow by staggering amounts. but with SPD it took from 12th Dec to 31st Jan for the correction to complete which was some 50 days. this is a warning as to what could happen here. SPD had a false recovery from 13th Dec to 13th Jan.

blue2guit and anyone interested,I have set up a temporary email address Richard123456 at mail.com email me there and I can give more specific suggestions and also screenshots,as many things are graphical,explain the specifics of what you are doing,even some specific trades and I can evaluate a few by my own methodology. with investment,discretion is important,and its important that everyone develops their own methodology,that way you can own a niche,and beat the market by being the only trader in the niche. it's an ongoing process to develop a methodology,its better to help people develop their own methodology than giving them a ready made methodology,as good methodology is highly bespoke.the methodology also depends on budget and time. getting started is the most difficult thing,most trading systems are outright scams which prevent people progressing. as regards FastJet, which I presume is FJET, sell everything immediately, limit your losses. since 2008 they have lost money every year except 2010 where they made a mere $40000, that wont even salary one pilot. in 2012 they lost $56 million. they lost $42 million in the 6 months to 30 jun 2013. so their business plan is dreadful. what they are doing is very fascinating, I have flown in africa and its the most interesting and vivid experience. establishing an airline is Bransonology, you hire/buy some planes, you recruit pilots, cabin crew, check in staff, you buy some airport schedule, advertising, deals with travel agents or comparison sites, and you take out a startup loan or IPO to fund this. its very complex logistics, but the work is in the planning. they have taken too long, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Their business is unviable, their revenue for the 6 months to 30 jun 2013 was $25.457 million, but their operating charges were $64.9 million. from 31 dec 2013 till 26 feb 2014, the daily low never once outdid an earlier high, 4th March till now (21st) also lows never outdid earlier highs. just 3 days of progress 27, 28 feb and 3 mar. rest of the year plummeting. if a graph plummets for say 3 days, it will often rebound, and selling is inadvisable. but once it plummets for 2 weeks, that means trouble and you should prepare to limit your losses. FJET has been plummetting for the entire 2014 so far except 3 days, which recouped 7 trading days. this brief reversal was caused by issuing 950k quid of equity on 26 feb, too little too late. some metalevel methodology, is to find trades that went very well for you, because you can often find similar trades that will also do well, eg in the same sector or associated trades. anyway, I am straying off topic, so its better to continue by email. on topic, if you hold XAR shares, I'd advise you to carefully watch the market on Monday from 8am, because 4.54 million shares were sold after hours on 21st.

with XAR, Friday's graph looked healthier, but my first progress indicator is if the days min can outdo a recent max. the Low at the top of this webpage needs to be at least 867.5 (max for 20th), the current min max. that is the first green light. with RMG, the price rocketed to 615 when various execs announced resigs on 13th Jan, but I monitored the daily Lows, and these were NOT progressing. so I didnt believe the progress, froth! right till now their minima have never exceeded the max of 10/12/2013, =607. year end is 30/03, so will watch carefully then. the progress or regress of the daily low and high are really reliable indicators, the RMG example shows how good. this is a "technical analysis" idea. essential to use both technical analysis AND fundamentals if you want to maximize profits. if you only use one you will have probs. technical analysis is only valid if fundamentals dont change. fundamentals are the spanner in the works, as are price consolidations and splits, and divs. But provided you keep an eye on fundamentals, technical analysis is a very powerful radar. a careful study of the red green candlestick daily graph for XAR using the free software at prorealtime.com shows that since 21st Feb, the daily Low has NEVER outdone an earlier High. even when the price seemed to be improving eg on 17th, the High recouped 3 days, but the Low went even lower! I think this plumetting of XAR is a coincidence, XAR is expanding very fast, but it is still quite low ranking, I estimate it could be around 391st in the stock exchange. I only have 2 shares which are lower ranking, one is OPM which I estimate is about 1717th. higher ranking shares have more reliable prices, OPM is a total nightmare, but I think will eventually make a hefty profit, XAR is at the lower end of reliability, where Blackrock and friends congregate I think the cause is riddler's observation that several funds were pulling money,eg from 4th to 23rd Dec. But this pulling I think is just profit taking.if you want to maximize profits,its essential to take profits when the price is much higher than the trend.why?because the big money does this,and you need to second guess the big money.the big money uses very specific and flawed methodology.as a small investor you need to second guess their actions,and move money either way before them.Like the guy in groundhog day.Blackrock still have 8.18m shares. the silver lining is the more price descends, the bigger rebuy profits will be. 4th to 23rd Dec price clearly moves upwards much faster vs normal,funds decide to pull money for profits,no other cause,this pulls the price.sells on Friday exceeded buys by factor of 4.4,total vol some 700 thou'.but lse.co.uk says after hours extra 4.54 MILL shares SOLD.exercise extreme caution before rebuy.time low right, get huge profits.wait till 28th.big opportunity looms.