Member Info for rich160

Not sure if they had this previously, but THG website has FY21 analyst consensus. Based on the noise, I'm expecting this to be surpassed, the key will be how they communicate it.

Revenue & YoY growth
CONSENSUS 2,201m 36.4%

EBITDA Adjusted & EBITDA Margin %
CONSENSUS 176.2m 8.0%

Thanks both, interesting perspectives.

MarekQ, what valuation method you using to get to £3bn?

If you use enterprise valuation, which is suitable for a growth company like THG, the valuation is much higher. Barclays have done a good note on it.

Danl90, interesting how you put a nil valuation on ingenuity with £130m+ revenue and high growth. Your justification seemed to be because people had put a high value on it....

The dates the article references are 13th December to 29th December, where total volume was c.75m shares. It states shorts have double to 4%, which means +2% short positions and c.26m shares sold, which would be 1/3 of the volume. The share price went +22% during the his period. Maths simply doesn't work.

The article is borderline criminal. Doesn't even mention why they've gone to IHS market to perform the paid research in the first place...(or somebody with vested interested shared it with them)

You'd also need minimum 5 new hedgies with no existing holding to have taken the 2% given that none have been disclosed this far.

I'm all for short positions, it keeps the market in balance. But the tactics used really need a look at. Article really should be withdrawn

Really good movement here today, tested the downside and held up strongly. Sometimes gives you more confidence that days where it makes a few more %.

Only around 15 trading days until results and I think we'll trade 275-290 into them. Expect a couple of sharp days up in between to get us there.

Agreed, very strange article

To confirm then you've opened up a short on THG? If so, what price?

Nuri, you called BOO horribly wrong, continually flipping long and short when the market was going the other way. Does this tripe you're posting make you feel any better? I imagine not so give it a rest

That's pretty incorrect. Not a chance it was brokers balancing at that volume. And a UT is a real trade, buyers and a sellers at end of auction and fully expect it was our short friends smashing the price down at the close

There was also a 3m after close. So 5m total, massive

3m, as I suspected +50% higher than the 2m they've been using most days to crash the price. Needed to hammer against the rise to ensure it was another red day to keep trend.

Be interesting to see if the post close short trade is above 2m

It has been like a few times this week, think they are filling large buy orders which I have seen come through a few times.

Based on mid-May, might get the US update on Monday.

Yeah and personally I don't care as happy to pick up a lot at 57p, very good price in my eyes. Just funny it's been comfortably and then dropped down this am. Plan to keep mine until around £1 is reached, so onwards and upwards.

And almost like magic, the sp drops below 57p OO price the day before shareholders can trade them

Thanks Skittish, your explanation is much easier to follow than the RNS! The Alliance family not taking part in the basic entitlements is complete nonsense because they got the basic through the excess. The cap on the excess application was put so ludicrously high it allowed Alliance to take all the pot by bidding for an amount way over what was even possible. Thus making it look like it was 5-6 times oversubscribed for scale back.

This whole transaction smelled bad from the start and continues to!

Why were we scaled back for the additional shares, can't work it out. If only 62% took up entitlement, why did shareholders not get all the 7m of additional shares applied, how did that get scaled down to 1m

Your last post on CINE a few weeks back "I don’t hold, I got out for a bit of a loss earlier in the year".

As I said, I've sold 80% holding. Long term this is a great prospect, short term I don't see it moving north of 57p

Well at least you can add your BWNG losses to your IAG, CPI, CINE and other losses you've made. Similar to Ian sold out most of my brown at 56p last week, great return from 18p buy in. Will look for the offering/AIM to be sorted before buying back in.

Wonder if Allianz wants to keep the share price as low as possible up to the offering so there is a lower take up and they gets more shares. With the size of their holding, would be very easy to do (sell or lend out to short).