Member Info for rich160

A good day to buy

Looks like Balderton have been selling down. Maybe contributed to the drop off since results

"Total revenues for FY25E are expected to be c$50m against our $54.6m estimate, with 4Q25 seeing a reduction in the average net selling price to $222 (4Q24: $237) and total prescriptions for the year coming in at c199,000. While the absolute quantum of commercial sales was lower than we'd hoped in the latter part of the year, ACCRUFEeR® US revenue and US prescription volume growth of 56% and 33%, respectively, remain impressive achievements during a year of concerted commercial execution. We update our forecasts to reflect today's news, broadly maintaining FY26E revenues at $79.9m (previously $79.4m) while upgrading our expectations for operating profit to $1.4m (prev. operating loss of $2.5m) on updated assumptions for volumes, net selling price and COGS"

Very hard to see how STX could have realistically done additional $4.5m in Q4, even if selling price was higher.

Overall, company in a great place

Excellent results. Still only a £120m market cap,

Do we expect update on 23rd Jan or early Feb? Have seen both dates referenced.

What do you have for cash burn in 2025?

Closing at the day's low is very bearish for tomorrow

Yes ingenuity was given £89m I believe, but the £308m is after deducting that. So therefore my numbers should be apples with apples.

I think the cash used in the debt repayment in the refinancing (£180m) was offset by the equity/CLN raise (£90m) and Claremont sale (£100m).

So leaves a large cash burn unless my simple numbers above are wrong (and happy to be corrected by somebody more diligent than me!)

Is it the cash burn? Cash at 31 Dec 2024 looks to be c£308m for remain co. + £150m undrawn RCF = £448m. Today they reported £330m cash but inclusive of undrawn facilities. Does this mean a sizeable cash burn for 2025? Pls correct me if any of the above is incorrect

Money week tipping THG as one of it's picks for 2026. Onwards and upwards

https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/top-stock-ideas-that-offer-solidity-and-growth

Non-store retailers - primarily online shops - saw a 3.8% rise in sales in the same period.

First time in a while it's not died at the close after a rise.

Well then you need to take the forward EBITDA of THG too, which 2026 is £100m+, which takes you to £1bn+ and 70p+.

THG manages EBITDA poorly, evidenced by the protecting of nutrition customers from rising prices, so worth more on a break-up basis as others could significantly increase EBITDA from current levels. I suspect £1+ on a break-up basis

Is price rise soft because they downgraded profit? Adjusted EBITDA H1 £24m and H2 £50m = £74m EBITDA. I think consensus was around £100m

Ian Mac was around 76%. So Charles Allen at 80% only a few points higher. Hopefully leads to action again

13.4%

I struggle to believe that the trouble is existing shareholders as, despite how inept the board has been, they will fully know you can't announce something like this without having the required shareholder backing. E.g. the recent equity tap to support this.

Which for means it's either 1) MM and co. have completely undercooked how long this takes 2) somebody has approached them after the director buys with either a partial or full offer.

I expect it's the former but hope it's the latter. Pray for another sky exclusive on Sunday night

Hope we see a delay to the circular as would be first sign somebody has come and bid for either ingenuity or the whole thing

They pushed out cash break-even by at least 6 months, and given current cash balance, the market knows they will need to raise again. Place your bets on what price that raise will be at.

Underlying fundamentals are great, but communications and management have been awful

Key line for me - Previously reported Group financials including revenues, net revenues per Accrufer® prescription, and compliance with financial covenants on the Group's debt instrument are not affected by this change