The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Thank you for highlighting the research note Contrarianone. With your username you may enjoy Bluedealer's general chat page on the subject! Yes, if I bought I'd be looking to hold until port completion, so wouldn't mind paying around £1 if necessary. Due to the time frames I want to see sensitivity from management to PI interests, but each to their own...best of luck to you here in the meantime.
Well done here guys, know you two were in around IPO. Nice to see well researched investors making good profits with high conviction plays! After buying at 79p at 8am on the first day at trading I got the wobbles a bit when it dropped to 60p and set a sell limit for break even. Was glad when it activated but obviously regretting it now! Great long term prospects so best of luck to those of you who still hold. Also, this has to be the most cordial and well mannered bb of them all, bravo!
If the other operating and administrative expenses increased in line with inflation, the company should make a small profit. So, Orphan, I think you may be right! These calculations would be considered primitive and inaccurate by industry standards, so please place no reliance upon them. However I would interested to hear how they compare to any you may all have done? I think the company is in a far better financial position than the current share price indicates. Strong buy from me.
Cost of sales: 602,552 in 2012. Inflation was 2.51 in China last year December-December (http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/china/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-china-2013.aspx). Wage inflation may well have been higher, but as a rough guide we could expect 617,676. GROSS PROFIT/LOSS for 6 months ending 31 December 2013: Turnover 774,175 - Cost of sales 617,676 = 156,499 gross profit
Orange sales turnover: (H=Hepu, X= Xinfeng, T= Total fruit sales turnover, F= Fruit, S= Saplings, GT= Grand total) 2012 RMB' 000 H: 129,441 X: 470,753 T: 600,194 F: 290,243 S: 1,608 GT: 892,045 2013 H: 96,128 X: 386,196 T: 482,324 F: 290,243 S: 1,608 GT: 774,175
I've done a series of basic calculations, using the figures half yearly report from February 2012 and the information provided in the winter crop update and trading updates, in an attempt to pre-empt this year's half yearly results.. We haven't been given any further information regarding the sales of saplings or juice concentrates relative to last year, so I have assumed these have remained consistent. Therefore the figures below are purely a rough guide, and are all given in RMB. Sale price: The average sale price at Hepu decreased by 3%. It was 4,013 per tonne last year, so will be c. 3,892. The average sale price at Xinfeng decreased by 17%. It was 3,776 per tonne last year, so will be c. 3,134. Plantation yield: We have been given yield figures of 24,699 tonnes from Hepu and 123,228 tonnes from Xinfeng, giving a combined total of 147,927. The total from last year was 161,233.
15p buy after close. Does anyone know of any HK equivalents to this site? Would be interesting to see activity levels on there.
Yes it looks very promising for you, moving swiftly today after the big sell yesterday. I tried to contact the company on Friday as a litmus test of sorts. So far no reply to email or voice mail, so no investment from me. Probably unnecessary, but I'm aiming to be more diligent this year after a few 'oversights' in 2013!
Well called here, did you have a dabble before today? I see investing sidekick makes all the same points we did. I'm sure there'll be other opportunities here before the project comes online.
Another 1m trade at mid at 16:00, overshadowed somewhat by the late reported 13m sell from Friday...further to earlier posts I think that has to be Investec and Value Partners gone, but who is buying?
Further to my earlier comments, as of 30 September 2013, Investec held 19.23m shares (http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Business-profile?s=ACHL:LSE) , I would surmise within their Global Natural Resources fund, which was critical of ACHL in their December 2013 report (http://live-s3-1.investecassetmanagement.boxuk.net.s3.amazonaws.com/Investec-GSF-Global-Natural-Resources-Fund-Manager-Commentary_en.pdf). Unfortunately I didn't take note of the volume of sells over the past fortnight, so cannot do much with this information! It isn't that many shares though, considering the size of the individual trades. I saw another 1m buy on open today.
Dan, I'd recommend the corporate presentation on the website as a starting point, then you can read the RNS feed and see how that plan has been going and why the share price is down here. Good for covertly reading beneath the bedsheets! Orphan, I disagree re the interim results. I think reduced demand, retail price and output is likely to lead to a loss overall for the 6 months. I'd be pleasantly surprised by break even! We'll see, I'd like to be wrong. You may have seen a poster on iii discussing how the bananas will have died in the extreme cold. I did some research on this and it initially seemed plausible; China has experienced record low temperatures on late. I have contacted the company, who have assured me that there has NOT affected their plantations. The company also advised me that Investec are the large seller of late. Does anyone know what holding they had? I don't recall ever seeing them on the major holdings list. I also emphasised the importance of the dividend to investors.
CFEP is Cantor Fitzgerald I believe, is there any significance to that Bonker? I don't use level 2. Nope, no boom yet. There was a 1m buy before open too, so I expected it to fly out of the hatches. I presume there are a few more big sells being filled.
I feel it trends too closely (disproportionately so) with SUMM and PLE. It's advantageous for us all really though, as disconnect widens it becomes an increasingly good investment. No rush though, as I suspect Mr Lee is still selling.
Check out tonight's posts from 17:00 onwards for a flavour. The management statements from the past few months fill out the picture. I haven't done retrospective calculations, but I suspect it now offers better 'value' then at any point previously. I believe the catches are priced in at this point, thus providing a good entry. All imho.
Maybe add continual bad news to the concerns? I've had a look through all the company announcements for the last 2 years; the outlook has progressively deteriorated at every turn. Largely weather/canker related, Acts of God. However share price deterioration has outstripped the financial impact of these setbacks, now looking very cheap on most valuation metrics. Thought you'd like that aspect Libero, now where is Shan? NBU proved recently Buffet's "weighing machine" quote, albeit with a push from ST. Management has taken steps to diversify, strong dividend, bad interim results (hopefully) priced in...positives outweigh negatives in my opinion. Bought in today at 14p. Surprised no holdings announcements following these huge trades.
Any thoughts on the late sells? I saw The Times speculate yesterday that Friday's whopper marked the last of an institution selling, presumably Value Partners. Could today be the dregs, or perhaps other theories abound?
I think the discount to NAV (and the share price descent) can be explained in part by the holdings updates I keep receiving. As I highlighted in my last post here, Colin Lee appears intent on unloading his entire stake in the company. As this was over 8% at its peak, the fall is quite understandable. Would hope for a bounce when he's done! O/t Charles have you looked at SKIL at all? I have a few reservations regarding PR and the directors, so am not invested, but is trading at a huge discount to cash/NAV and therefore fits some of your criteria. Worth watching over 2014 I think.
I agree. Perception will remain reality in the absolute absence of PR. Enjoyed the pun. One to watch; there may come a point at which (in the absence of criminal convictions re financial crime allegations) the future upside considerably outweighs the risk.
Stumbled upon this just today, was initially fascinated and couldn't get my head around the price performance. I've just stopped reading the admission document part way through, on account of this: "The SKIL Group, like many of its peers and other organisations doing business in India, is susceptible to disputes with commercial counter-parties and local regulators, which often include allegations of criminal as well as civil wrong doing. The Directors believe that such claims, and any ensuing litigation, are part of the ordinary course of business for many companies in India. The SKIL Group, its ultimate controlling shareholders (including Mr. Nikhil Gandhi) and its directors are currently engaged in a number of both criminal and civil proceedings, at different levels of adjudication before various courts, tribunals and enquiry officers in India, all of which are being contested. These matters are: . criminal proceedings which name Mr. Gandhi, among others, and include allegations of forgery of bills, fraudulent evasion of customs duties and dishonouring of cheques; . preliminary investigations by SEBI into price movements of equity shares and transactions in equity shares of companies in which Mr. Gandhi holds directorships or controlling interests; and . an order of SEBI against a director and certain officers of SKIL Group companies (which does not include Mr. Nikhil Gandhi) relating to allegations of insider dealing. An appeal has been filed with the Securities Appellate Tribunal in India against the SEBI order."