Adrian Hargrave, CEO of SEEEN, explains how the new funds will accelerate customer growth Watch the video here.
I've doubled down on a number of occasions and turned a healthy profit from a loss making situation ... I've also chased a few companies like Carillion and Asian Citrus into oblivion.
If you believe the fundamental prospects for LOOP haven't changed, then what you thought was a BUY at 71p must be an even better buy at 42p so double down to reduce your average. If you believe the prospects have changed because of the announcements or the target market or competition then probably better to re-evaluate your existing holding and cut losses.
About the only good reason for doing nothing is if you feel the market has somewhat over re-acted and the price will recover but will drop further before the turnaround happens. However trying to guess the exact bottom is a fools game.
Good Luck
£10m ... so basically double the interims ... but back to 2017
What a good month this has been for Arden.
But imagine if the final results come in at £100m revenue and PbT around £1.5m
... so better than the 2017 earnings when the share price was 53.5p
... and that would still only represent a p/e ratio around ten !
Bought back in December '20 as a punt and was rewarded a couple of months ago. Crystalised some gains to get a free holding but after the new issuance have decided to double up again. The price is almost back where I initially purchased and with a bunch of preferred insiders buy at 5p I figure thats as good as I'm likely to get.
This is a punters stock, so don't invest what you can't afford to lose ... but over the next 12mths this could go from 5p to zero or 5p to 20p and that just based on rumours. If you believe this is more than 50:50 to stay in business and are a gambler then this is the stock for you
Ridiculous market manipulation this morning. Price dropped from 276p to 242.5p by 9.30am this morning then went from 242.5p to 182.5p and back to 242.5p over the course of the next hour !!! This sort of stupid price action is why I no longer use stop losses ... better to monitor movements and make decisions with a longer term perspective in mind.
pwooly - 2.5m shares is a very sizeable holding in such a small company ... thankfully from your posting history it seems you've been invested for a while so the recent events represent paper losses
I took a punt here at sub 4p in December putting £10k from my SIPP in. I decided to crystallise some gains so now have a "free" holding ... but I'm tempted to buy back at the current price.
We have investors who paid the 10.5p new issuance price in March and a CEO who has almost 20% stake.
Everything I based my decision on last December is still relevant - yes there has been a set-back on one area of exploration, but PRD still has plenty of potential ... I see no reason to sell out now
Mannan, price never hit 22p .... but the other way to look at this is price 1/1/21 3.8p ; price Mid April 18.5p
Last year's Q2 trading update was on 7th July so we should be getting an RNS any day now and I'm expecting something pretty positive, irrespective of the downward sp drift
DD&& - similar position I've been invested since 2016 expecting food producer in Africa to be a growth story.
I added when the price was 5p but only enough to get my average to around 13p as well. I do feel this has potential to return to 20p ... and I comfort myself (not) by knowing that this is better performing than my other African food play Agriterra !!
Lawrence - my guess would be something back in the 600-650k oz range would see 40p at $1800 p.oz
However we would also need a bit more clarity on the margins on 3rd party concentrate if the extra 150-200k oz was to come from this type of processing. FYI I also think that POLY is heavily overpriced so comparisons to that Russian miner are not, in my opinion, the most reliable. All the best.
I was going to respond to Rusty / Samson etc but that would be joining the slanging match. I write on these BBs because I like to express my opinion on shares I own and to hear valuable insights into both those and other stocks. i tend to contribute more to boards that have a good level of reasoned arguments and much less to those filled with spiteful drivel.
This BB has had very little quality commentary of late ... so here is my take on the company prospects.
Board level shenanigans will continue for some time and although I can't say whether the current incumbents are aligned with small PI's they're no better or worse than previous incumbents who definitely had ulterior motives.
Our share price peaked at end of July 2020 above 40p and like almost all gold miners is off a 1/3rd since Q3 last year.
However I think this is entirely consistent with our current prospects. Re-reading the 2021 guidance RNS from 31st Mar it seems to me we have a CEO who has got to grips with the business and realistically suggested 430-470 k oz production for 2021, which certainly doesn't match the projections of being a 1million oz producer that some on this BB were bandying around last year. It did also say that some of that reduction in output was caused by missing opportunities to source more 3rd party concentrate ... and we're all aware of the games that have been played in that arena. However it's the 20th April Q1 update which I think provides further reason to be wary. The guidance suggested that Pioneer output would exceed 120k oz ; Albyn would be less than 125koz and Malomir flatline around 140k oz - hence own production target of 370-390koz. But Q1 had Pioneer at 24k oz ; Albyn at 22k oz and Malomir at 36k oz. So they got right that Malomir would flat line ; but Albyn seems to be reducing more quickly and Pioneer not expanding as fast. If Q2 is similar then actual result is going to be at the low end of that 2021 forecast. Oh and we're expecting $140m of Capex in 2021 and increased exploration expense. So what does that do to my simplistic miner pricing model .... well at 450k oz I see about 25% upside for POG (which is why I still have a decent sized holding) ... but we also still have around 250m of unexercised convertible shares and maybe an undershoot on the guidance which means that we might be hard pushed to get back above 30p without a significant rise in the price of gold.
Applying my same modelling and analysis to HUM I see almost 100% upside - hence my reason for suggesting that as a better alternate miner right now.
As for getting it constantly wrong on POG, well I bought my full entitlement in the 2015 RI at 5p so after 5yrs of heartache this finally turned good at the beginning of 2020 and has made me profits, which I crystalised by selling down my oversized holding. I was criticized by some for advised diversification last summer when the sp was 37p (don't think that was such a bad call with hindsight).
In some ways the fact that various entities want POG on the cheap is a good sign for us PI's ... it means that the company is valuable. Anybody invested for more than 12 months really can't feel too bad about share price performance ... all gold miners are off 25-50% from their highs last Sept and will return if/when gold re-hits $2000p.oz.
If somebody wants an alternate punt to POG as a gold miner I'd recommend looking at HUM ... it is the only gold miner trading below it's low from Mar '20 and yet 2020 results were the best ever and its on a P/E below 3. Likewise in the PMG miners THS is hugely under-appreciated. If I were over-exposed to POG but wanted to keep mining exposure I'd probably switch to these ... as it is I have more exposure to both of them than POG
For a wholly unrelated punt, might I suggest people look at LVCG. It's a lego bricks event minnow which has been beaten up by COVID ... it's actually trading at 1/2 the Mar '20 "low" but could be on the point of seeing profits if the event space starts to pick up again and parents take kids to places like legoland again. It wouldn't be a total surprise if this wasn't a ten-bagger within 12mths, which would only put it back to the price from Q2 '19. I'm invested there too but DYOR and GLA
Cebo - the only reason I say CA would be left to figure this out is that they are the major shareholder (other than a couple of shady Chinese entities). To my knowledge nothing prevents the BoD from saying the company is now insolvent and we need to start winding it down on Monday as soon as the judge rules AGAINST the restructuring. None of the bondholders have anything to gain by accepting any offer for their bonds unless they believe the company is worthless. If they believe the company has a future then they hold out for 100% ownership in default. The current BoD has offerred them 95% of the equity plus new bonds that earn higher coupon than existing bonds ... there is no way they will take 70 cents on the dollar because they nice people !
If anybody wants to stop the bondholders from taking over this company they need to find $230m fast
Crystal Amber might need very deep pockets !
From 11th June RNS - "Further the Shareholders and bondholders of the Company are reminded that if the Restructuring Plan is not sanctioned by the Court, the Restructuring will not be capable of being implemented. In that scenario, it is likely that there would be a controlled wind-down of the Group's operations followed by an insolvent liquidation of the Company."
I don't think there is anything to stop the existing BoD declaring insolvency on Monday afternoon if the ruling is against them ... which would put CA in position of having to figure out how to repay $230m of bonds at par.
One rule of stock ownership is that in distressed situations the Bondholders hold ALL the aces ... I hope this turns round for small PIs but fear it won't
This is a huge gamblers stock today (and for the past couple of weeks)
Any newbies here might want to read the RNS from 11th Sep and 18th Dec last year to understand the risks even if the judge rejects the restructuring and the BoD doesn't declared bankrupcy tomorrow. The actual results announcements in 2020 caused the share price to fall from 5p to 2p .... together with the statement that $75m of capital would be required in 2022 to keep the well producing. One year oil futures are trading at $65 and two year at $55. At that level HUR is only a marginal profitability business ... presuming current spot price of $75 or higher is very dangerous, when $50 is more realistic mid-long term average. Please do your homework and personal risk assessment. At the end of today this might be 0.2p or 2p. GLA
hasiba and others - I've seen (and been burned) by too many 'restructurings' over the years to feel that this is 'unjust'. Bondholders hold shareholders to ransom all the time and the BoD are usually either complicit or powerless.
The statement on the shareholder meeting RNS was pretty clear ... if the court doesn't sanction then we will almost certainly file for bankrupcy. It is possible to day trade that period and maybe double your money within a week on spurious optimism but generally at this point the long term shareholders are out of luck.
I'm not a deramper (I bought this on a punt just a few months ago hoping the refinancing would occur). The BoD have demonstrated they haven't been able to accomplish that - I therefore took my losses (sold lower than current price) and chalked it down to experience. For those who are still holding please recognise that the sp after this meeting is as likely to be 0.1p as it is 2p ... if you can tolerate that risk then good luck, if you can't then cut your losses now
I'm being quoted 15.95 / 17.70 so it looks like there are more potential buyers than sellers
Disturbing this rise isn't based on any publicly available news !
PP I actually don't expect to get any of my excess (the cynic in me thinks that anything not taken up by private investors will actually be given to preferred insiders not distributed to Pi's). I'm unlikely to then buy anymore. I first invested (gambled) back in June '19 when the sp tanked to 150p ... I subsequently had to more than double my holding to get my av down to around the 100p mark, so I'm overweight KIE according to my own portfolio requirements.
If the price falls I might cut my losses and move on ... if it rises to 125p and sits there for a while I might still sell out and look for better opportunities whilst locking in a small profit. I'm not one of the optimists here hoping for £2 by end of June and £3 by Q4 ... I think Kier will be very lucky to see £2 again - anytime in 2021 / 22 ... but I'll bank the profits if it does.
Like I said in my previous post this is a lousy business model for sustainable growth, I bought as a gamble on the market "over-reaction" and have had to wait 2yrs just to breakeven. But DYOR, some will see this very differently.
Made my first purchase here back in Feb '18 at around 160p ... thought it had every prospect of rising to around 250p as well as providing a good dividend yield. Certainly been an eventful few years - lost 1/3rd my investment within a matter of weeks but kept the faith and kept averaging down all the way to buying at 66p last Summer. Past 6mths have been very satisfying and I think FY results in July will be very impressive ... can't wait to hear what the dividend will be, but sadly I don't think its going to translate into quite as many shares being drip'd back into my SIPP as last year
Jim800 - so did you sell and repurchase ?
Seems to me that was the only logical play for any lth. I requested a 50% over-allocation, which means my repurchases will cost almost exactly what I sold for, but all being well I'll end up with 1/3rd more shares than previously.
My prediction is there will be a small sell-off to around 105-110p. After all somebody has been buying all the shares that existing shareholders have been selling at 110-115p this past week. However we will have the new participants from the accelerated bookbuild who might well decide that turning 85p into 105p in one month is sufficient easy money for them, so I believe they will be providing additional selling pressure.
As for the longer term ... Kier business model really is "hoovering up pennies in front of a steamroller" ... margins are tiny and debt servicing high. I don't see interest rates rising (Western Governments can't afford that) but this is such a leveraged play that I will be top slicing heavily if we get back to 150p. 2017 - 2018 revenue increased by 110m and net profit by 75m ; then 2018 - 2019 revenue decreased by 290m and net profit by 295m. Seems to me this company needs around 4bn revenue to break-even and every +/-100m either side swings net profit +/-50m. A 10% change in revenue could move this from a p/e ratio of 100 to 2 which is just crazy. Good luck all