focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Leem1 - the "rise is now plain stupid" only if you have no understanding of the business and current conditions
2022 revenue and profit could easily double on 2021 even if coal drops back to $200 p.t.
We would need to see coal being universally vilified again ... not likely to happen when people are experiencing power cuts and coal price to crash ... not likely when alternate energy supplies are scarce and increasing in cost
Compared with Arthur Scargill days, thermal coal is clean energy ... I see a steady rise from here, especially with dividends and / or buybacks to use the free cashflow
Even at current production I would expect the sp to be closer to 75p not sub 50p.
But so much depends on production at Coringa
... if they can give a target date to start mining and if it is as productive as Palito then sp doubles almost instantly
My guess is next week not this for the Q1 update. Don't really understand why this isn't rated more highly - probably the potential for them to get burned on the trading account. However if they keep churning out $100m profit per quarter on the underlying business flow and don't **** it away on the trading account then we should consistently get 5%+ dividends and sooner or later all the share buybacks have to start increasing the sp. This should be above 1500p and really hitting new post Covid highs every quarter the results are stable
Sharelad - it certainly does !
It would be really nice if in a couple of weeks they announced some Q1 earnings figures !
Most of the annual results for 2021 were from the final 6mths
... and coal prices have been much higher in Q1 '22 than H2 '21
It wouldn't surprise me if Q1 showed revenue of $1bn and profit of $350m ... just for the quarter !
Seems to me that POG is perfectly placed to use a "currency" (that has been a stable medium of exchange for thousands of years) to pay their debts which is acceptable to both the West and Russia ... and China / Africa / Latam and Mars for that matter ! My bigger concern is whether a repeat bondholder stitch up like 2015 is on the cards. This can't be ruled out, but I believe our shareholder base is much more diverse than those bad old days ... and the current BoD less keen to save their own skin at others expense - although I might well be wrong on that front !
How long before the suspension is lifted is anybody's guess.
But what isn't guesswork is the price of related stocks on 10th March when this was suspended
POG @ 2.75p ; POLY @ 150p and JRS @ 125p ... and on 18th Feb before this all kicked off
POG @ 16p ; POLY @ 1170p and JRS @ 680p
If the suspension was lifted tomorrow my guess is the price would be 125p by c.o.b
If POG / POLY & JRS all rise to 70% of 18th Feb prices then EVR would be around 325p, but EVR had already lost half its value from 1/1/22 by mid Feb so the markets were already pricing in some distress.
I think if Putin declares victory and withdraws and Zelensky acknowledges neutrality and business resumes then £4 by end of Q2 is near guaranteed
Harry - i think you have unrealistic expectations for the amount of time the BoD will spend sending out RNS vs actually running the business. They put out quarterly trading statements and an 11mth update covering the vital Xmas period, within a couple of weeks of period end. This is more than most companies.
I fully agree with you that price is too low, but that will rectify when fund managers start to see value in retail again.
This got above 90p "post Covid wave 2" and will return there very soon. It was above 150p pre Covid and 2022 is likely to see that sort of profitability return ; plus we now have a better online offerring, so might get a little more of a Moonpig multiplier. My prediction is trebling your money within 2yrs ... if that isn't sufficient for you then start gambling elsewhere
Hard to believe that it is only 10mths ago that Antony Maris was threatening shareholders with liquidating the company if we didn't allow him to gift 95% of the equity to the Bondholders for $50m! Equally hard to believe that he was re-elected last June (albeit with 73% of shareholders not voting and only 15% voting in favour of keeping him) ... and unbelievable that the phoney investigation by the NEDs in December concluded that the BoD acted in good faith last May / June.
I sincerely hope that Crystal Amber flex their muscles this year and try to get him ousted.
Anybody who in June '21 says his company is worth <$50m and then in March '22 that we shall have repaid all debt and have free cash flow of $60-80m clearly has no understanding of his business and is not fit for purpose.
I wonder how well HUR could perform if it actually had a CEO at the helm who wanted the company to succeed for its shareholders !
Brave call Rebs ... your holding could be worth £500k in 3mths or you might have lost £35k - if we get nationalised.
I think those are pretty favourable odds but that is certainly a ballsy gamble ... hope it's money you can afford to lose !
Earl - making statements is not deramping.
If you know who owns Monecor shares please tell us all ; if you know the revenue share arrangements for the new streaming entity please share ; if you know when the dilution is coming and at what price please share ... all of this information would make assigning a proper valuation easier for us and other investors to assess.
It is a fact that DC converted loans he had made to the company into equity at prices that he determined ; it is also a fact that he had LVCG pay £1m for a 16.3% stake in Start.art (a company he created and owned 100%) ... we weren't consulted on these terms ... my guess is that the entirety of Start.art is worth about £5k but who knows.
I want to make money here, I see great potential, I'm merely stating that in my opinion DC isn't acting in our best interests but his own and I am greatly irritated as a private investor that BoD members have zero responsibilities to their shareholders and that that is the way the FCA, as a so-called regulator, likes it !
The problem with LVCG, which imho is holding back the sp, is that DC is not running this as a competent businessman trying to grow a listed company but rather as a spoilt child playing with his toys. We have no idea who owns the Monecor shares (probably DC and buddies) ; we have no idea if the new streaming entity will provide 100% of revenue to us LVCG shareholders or only 10% to us and 90% to some sub-entity which he controls separately (think the Start Art arrangement)
We have no idea how many more shares will be issued, to whom and at what price, before DC has the structure he wants, irrespective of whether it benefits all shareholders. I first bought here at 56p in 2019 ... shortly after a capital raise issued 3.4m shares @65p, taking issued equity to 70m shares and market cap to £45m. Even then I saw a company that could double in value on Bricks business alone. Covid put an end to that, but the new lines of business and revenue streams could easily turn this back into a £100m mkt cap company ... if only DC ran it like a professional.
I've averaged down heavily and stand to make a decent profit if this reaches its potential, so I'm still hoping, but we are all playthings for DC and that is why no institutional investors are taking stakes
Teeb - averaging down heavily certainly makes sense if you still believe in the company turning around.
But be aware that you could still lose whatever extra you put in now.
In addition to the whole Russia war situation you must now add the bondholder repayments falling due in June (I think)
It was the bondholders that caused the collapse in 2014 and it could happen all over again. Only this time I don't think we'd have somebody like Hambro trying to give small PI's any chance of recouping their losses ... I think we would be wiped out completly by an insider carve-up. If you can get your average down into single figures I think you have a good chance of coming out of this whole ...but it is a gamble
Tjay - you might see this sp retreat, because the coal price has gone so high and pretty much can only come down from this level. However it would make a fantastic RNS if the BoD informed us that they have over the course of the past few days bought futures to lock in prices north of $250 p.t for the remainder of the year. That would give the smart money a chance to figure out exactly how much profit and cash is baked in for 2022 and set a sensible price.
For my part I've been top slicing this week and have sold 1/4 of my original holding for 2/3rd of my original cost. Don't be surprised if this retreats to last Friday's horribly low price of 625p !
If you look at the 2021 Annual Report you can clearly see that 2/3rds of Revenue comes from operations "outside" of Russia. so even if Putin somehow nationalised EVRAZ Russian assets tis company still continues with assets producing the same revenue as in 2020 !!! ... but the sp is now 1/10th. Maybe the dividend won't get paid later this month, but I don't think that is certain ... I'm sure most of their cash reserves are held in dollars not Rubles so the money is available.
I suspect that in a few months this is going to be regarded as one of the steals of the century !!!
Unless you're a Day Trader (i.e a gambler) anybody buying this or other Russia related stocks today should not get excited by the end of day close price and any intra-day loss. If that concerns you - then simply don't trade. I bought a few shares today for the first time in years and at a lower price than I've ever paid. I couldn't get a direct quote from my broker so I placed a limit order and got executed at 3.5p ... so I'm down 35% on the day !!! Whoopee !!!
I bought because any semblance of normality will see this price return to 15p+ ... imho for it to go to zero somebody must confiscate the assets. Gold is being mined and gold can easily be stored if not sold immediately.
Furthermore, those companies that appear to have fared better (POLY ; FXPO)the past day to two have done so because of better communication - I feel this would bounce quite strongly simply if the BoD released a semi-coherent RNS
FYI I've also bought EVR today - that is imho even more ridiculously marked down. The price has fallen from 600p to 65p and last week as the invasion was kicking off they announced record high revenues and earnings (far exceeding pre-Covid levels) and an interim dividend of ¢50 ... in other words if you buy today you're got to get repaid over half your investment in less than a month as an "interim" dividend. The financial world has truly gone mad this week.
Lawrence, As one of the handful of genuine lth from the rights issue days in 2015 - I do feel your pain if you have held this as your main / solo stock through the past 7yrs, without diversifying or top-slicing. If my calculations are correct this has been a life-changing week for your pension assets and I certainly hope some normalcy returns in the next few months so that you get back to a more realistic valuation of atleast 15p. I have no idea how this is going to play out and unfortunately I see a lot of Hedge Funds and Venture Capitalists just using this volatility to make a fast buck with no concerns for anything else.
To that end I think the only approach is to hang tough and wait. We waited 5yrs for the sp to drift from 5p to 10p and then less than a year to shoot to 40p ... the same might happen again. Good Luck all ... but if one lesson has surely been learnt it is that you need to diversify and get lucky !
I have about £12k invested here and it's now on a big loss, but I'm certainly not selling ... it would be the stupid option at these levels and with this uncertainty ... hold tight, keep calm and carry on is the best approach.
When this war / dispute gets resolved then the value will return in some form over the medium term. However the real concern is whether the Fund Managers at JPM are compelled to sell their holdings in order to appear to be complying with the sanctions. I'm sure Jamie Dimon will be doing his utmost to NOT comply with any such requests from Biden's gang, but as we have seen with BP & Rosneft, big companies don't stand a chance in the face of irrational and spiteful left leaning politicians seeking easy votes from the non-share owning classes. I don't see the resolution myself at the moment but would rather my holding go to zero because of other people's stupidity rather than crystalise 75% loss because of my own
I bought almost exactly one year ago @ 275p average and felt this was hugely undervalued. My judgement was right as it rose to 500p and threw off great dividend. Nothing has changed about the company itself or the product it sells. I had top-sliced 10% and have just put that back in getting 2000 shares with the proceeds of selling 600 - so I'm happy ... even though I'm about 40% down right now. Some will think just get out with whatever you have invested I'm more in the "buy on the sound of guns" camp. This is a Swiss Company, listed in London operating in Europe and will, I believe, still be operating as such in a year's time. Bush and his Secretary of State Baker as well as Kohl, Thatcher and Mitterand all lied to Gorbachev in the 90's about expanding NATO Eastward. Yeltsin accepted Poland. Czeckoslovakia and Hungary joining NATO in the 90's and Putin had to accept Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltic States doing the same in 2000's. But Belarus and Ukraine have huge borders with Russia and that is too much for him to risk. We'll see if the current crop of Western Leaders : Biden, Johnson, Macron & Scholz have the capability to negotiate a diplomatic solution. Even though many thought Bush was a walking joke, you ask me the current lot are a whole lower calibre !!! Right now stay calm and carry on !
I bought a year ago @ 2p as a punt, but cut my losses at 0.35p when the sham fund raising was announced.
With the Jan 26th RNS it is clear that RG & buddies have been given £6-7m of assets for £2.55m.
So much for regulation protecting shareholders - the BoD cut a deals with a few insiders and take their backhanders and private investors take a shafting. Question is whether this can grow further now is RG happy to have been given a quick £3m profit or is he now hoping for a lot more. Will the price drift down below 0.2p or is this the new floor from which we might make a little money by grabbing onto the coattails of the insiders !
So we've reached Ten Bagger Territory for those who had the bravery to buy at 0.7p when the BoD had threatened to wind the company up if they didn't get to give it away to the bondholders for a backhander. It really is a shame that BoD have no responsibility to run a company in the best interests of shareholder / owners rather than themselves. I really don't understand why Crystal Amber didn't/haven't requisitioned a meeting to remove the lot of them !