Member Info for RetiredBanker

Badger - their target for sales is Dec 2023 ... almost two years ; they have also recently agreed not to try to force the sales in order to make a payment of 50p to shareholders by end of Q2 2022
So it seems to me they are willing to hold to get a better price

I'm at an average pf 64p and over £10k down on my investment, but I do think we're going to see upward movement ahead of the March results announcement. Looking at those H2 % vs 2019 I'm expecting revenue to be above $1.2bn and if they also announce that Jan / Feb have been hitting 90% of 2019 then I think the prospect of a return to $3.5bn+ as FY 22 revenue should see this move back above £1 ...

I had the luck / foresight to double down heavily when this was trading below 0.5p and subsequently sold a good chunk such that I turned a loss into a profit and now have a "free" holding. But I do wonder whether John Shaw would recommend / accept a 10p per share offer from somebody like Unilever. Take his £4m and a comfy salary for a few more years whilst letting Unilever build the products

Angels - I think you're quite right to say this is trading under the radar
Anglo offloaded purely for ESG reasons and because coal prices were falling / static for years at 1/3rd the current level.
You got your allocation on the demerger at 100p, I bought in at 200p when you were already up 100% but this was still an obvious bargain. Without any history or results published this isn't hitting any II / Fund Managers using any screening techniques ... so it stays largely in the domain of PI's who have found a hidden gem.
I re-evaluated all the holdings in my SIPPs last month at the start of the New Year ... and this was my Note to Self : "Expect £200m profit for 2021 and price to rise to 600p by end of March" .... looks like I was being too conservative !

As I wrote on 26th Jan - this could have been expected if you did the math !
What's even more exciting though, is that ALL of this profit (£3 per share !!!) has come from the 2nd half of the year.
If coal stays around $180 per tonne in 2022 we can expect double this profitability ... if it continues to rise !!!!

Another set of rock solid interim results.
Almost certainly FY revenue £90-95m ; Profit £7-10m again and hopefully we hit 10p as FY dividend.
Paying out 50% of net profit as dividend and a p/e of ten seems very conservative valuation when long dated government bond yields are <2%. I'd like to see this sp rise back towards 275-300p just on the basis of a p/e =15 !

Graham - like you I latched on here early (Ave 66p) and do recommend top slicing.
However I think you would do better to not sell half your investment to make the rest "free" but instead hold 80-90% for the dividend yield, which on your original investment is likely to exceed 10% in just 1-2yrs time

Turnaround plays like Micro need patiences ... lots and lots of patience.
Eons ago I invested in ARM and it went sideways for about 6yrs before I gave up on this "hot tech stock with unlimited prospects" ... then it went up about 20x in 2-3yrs whilst I watched from the sidelines.
Right now Micro is capable of generating recurring $3bn revenue at 35% gross margin and really should be able to generate 10-20% Net Profit, but because of all the acquisitions the results are almost entirely dependent on the amortisation of Intangibles and the cost of servicing debt. The refinancings just announced have extended the debt maturities which is great, but they also show just what sort of junk the markets think Micro is ... financing for 5yrs at 5.5-6% including the hedges is pretty awful but it does mean we know what the costs are with some certainty. The amortisations is the real guessing game and as the Notes state they can vary this annual charge by +/-$160mm simply by assuming the future life of these "assets" increases/decreases by 1yr. However in terms of cash generation this is easily capable of paying out 5% dividend yield and it seems to be the chances of it going bust over the next 2-3yrs are very low , whilst the chances of returning to above 750p are quite good.
Limited downside with 5% yield and potential for 50% p.a capital growth over medium term seems worth continuing to hold

The main reason for the halving of sp in the past 2weeks is that revenue has gone into reverse in 2021.
From 2017 - 2019 revenue was growing 50% p.a in 2020 it more than doubled - but the Jan 26th announcement showed that wasn't continuing. Those with great faith will be talking about $4.7mm 2022 revenue, those with a view to harder times ahead will be questioning whether it regains $3m. I have no idea which it will be ... but I do believe in the products and management so for now I'm looking at possible opportunities to buy back some of my top slices from earlier last year !
Without guidance from management on 2022 I could see this back below 2.5p. I could equally see a takeover offer at 5p tomorrow !

I'm another firm believer this is far too cheap. I've been trying to understand why miners are not going up in value right now and the main problem I see is that many have got lazy and let their costs grow out of control. If you're a gold miner with AISC around $1500 now then the prospects are worse than a couple of years ago when you contained your costs to $1000-1100.
THS seems different and my personal guesstimate of our fair market value is around £820m ... I might take some profit at around 175p but this is a long term hold

I feel that Altyn is overlooked and undervalued - I generally believe our mkt cap should be double it's current level.
I'm also happy to know that Assaubayev family holding is at an average of around 250p - so they won't accept a lowball offer from an outside party to buy the company.
But my one big reservation, is I don't understand how Assaubayev's have been able to circumvent the takeover code and are allowed to hold almost 70% of the equity. I don't know what prevents them from offering any price they want to us minority shareholders to takeover the whole company. I know a compulsory takeover requires 90% of the vote, so they wouldn't get that, but what if they offered 180p ... higher price than we've achieved in the last 12mths ... would they get sufficient sellers ?

I think that the lack of "history" is what is causing many II to ignore this. The potential here is frightening !
H1 figures showed a small net profit and operating margin of only around 10% but this must surely be heavily understated when FY results get reported. Anglo got rid of this because of all the bad PR associated with dirty coal mining and when coal price had been $50-100 per ton. Let's assume they were making losses because their all-in cost was $100p.t !
... but in H1 2021 price has averaged $130 and in H2 around $180 ... even with a 20% discount to the spot price in H2 we should be making net profit of $44 p.t on over 1Mt monthly production ... that's £200m profit ... and I think I'm being conservative !

Just bought in here ... having switched my holding in RMM.
Sadly don't have surplus cash at the moment so had to choose something to bail out of.
I thought RMM would rise rapidly last year and instead it flatlined but even though it has good prospects I feel Atalaya are better, much higher output and profitability and safer jurisdiction. Net profit is going to come in around £90m so putting this on a p/e below seven ! ... and every probability that copper prices will head higher

y11 - i sold at 0.7p when I thought it was game over !
But I bought back in last week and have just doubled my holding by selling some Kier stock that has flatlined for 12mths .
I think when FY results of $240m revenue and $80m net profit are announced the realisation this is trading on p/2 of 1.5 and will have cleared the bondholders in July will cause a serious re-rating. 25p by Xmas 2022 is on the cards !
... oh and if I hadn't hit the sell button at 0.7p my holding would have been about 3x what it is now and for lower cost. Aargghh

The FY 2021 Production Report is due this week and should show revenue of $750m and profit around $100m
Solid results that should put a floor on the share price.
This is now a small part of my SIPP but I'd like to see the price back between 20-25p ... and maybe if they could figure out out to process 3rd party ore profitably through the POX hub we could see the sort of sp that Lawrence would be happy with ! GLA

Brucey - I'm similar to you, bought in a long time ago and have average in mid 20's.
This is the only Gold stock I have NEVER been able to top slice and take some profits.
Problem is that HUM simply don't know how to control costs.
If Gold does go back above $2k then we'll make some good profits ... but they'll just let AISC rise to $1750 !
I'll likely take some losses here and switch to miners with better prospects, because although this seems comparatively cheap it just doesn't ever hit the bottom line !

Taser - I agree with you that the 45k oz guidance for 2022 seems optimistic ... and will likely be revised down to 40k at most.
However even at current output and profitability this is undervalued by about 50% in my opinion.
We're trading not much off the Mar '20 Covid lows and well below the 75p placing price when we added more Institutional Investors to the shareholder list ... that should be the floor price for this stock !

The share price is static because of life of mine concerns.
Yes - this is throwing off cash now and paying >10% in dividends
....but if the good times only last until 2023 then this won't be making you money overall.
I've been invested for 4yrs and have DRIP'ed 40% of my initial holding back into the company in that time, but unless they can keep expanding their resources this could turn ugly ... that is what the market is pricing

If I were one of the insiders who had been gifted 500mm shares at 0.1p I would be sorely tempted to sell immediately for 0.3p and take my £1m easy money profit

I've decided to sell my remaining stake and move on to pastures new. It's been a great ride for me 15k invested 120k crystalised. But I've lost faith in there being a big sale ... its been 18mths after-all !
Instead I've taken my latest punting gains and am backing CARD & HUR ... both of which I feel are positioned right now to double in six months ... and maybe much more.
My evaluation of EUA - 15% drops below 20p ; 80% stays in 20-40p range ; 5% breaks out above 50p ... not worth the wait. GLA