Member Info for Retireby40

From Wanobi on LSE -

Dr Anthony Fauci - Director, US National Institute of Allergy and infection diseases, CNN Soundbite - 'word for word off the telebox tonight' - what you want, if you are going to immediately identify, isolate and contact trace a person so that you can quickly get them out of society and stop spreading to other people,, you want a test that you know the answer right away, one of the problems with tests that you get back several days later is that you generally let that person who might actually be infected go back into society and inadvertently be infecting other people while you're waiting for the result of the test,,, to really get the handle on those areas where they don't have a lot of infected individuals we want to effectively identify, isolate and contact trace,,,, you want the result of the test in REAL TIME, you want to know exactly what you are dealing with at the time you're dealing with it!!!!!!!!

For its year-ended 31st December 2019, Deltex Medical posted an operating profit (excluding exceptional items) of £90,000 (2018: loss £943,000), leading to a positive adjusted EBITDA of £0.4 million (2018: loss £0.7 million). Revenues £4.3 million (2018: £5.0 million), reflected a focus on profitable business, lower sales & marketing spend and cessation of a third-party distribution agreement, allowing overheads (before exceptional costs) to decrease by £1.3 million to £3.2 million (2018: £4.5 million). Sales & marketing spend decreased by 44% to £1.2 million (2018: £2.2 million), reflecting significantly smaller teams in the USA and UK due to the initiatives taken during the period. Cash/cash equivalents at period-end was £0.9 million (2018: £0.6 million).
Since the year end, refocussing by international healthcare operators in order to cope with the unprecedented demand created by the COVID-19 infection has, not surprisingly, reduced demand for the Group's Doppler probes from operating rooms. Such deferrals of elective surgery, however, are likely to be only be temporary and something of a ‘rush’ might be anticipated during 2H 2020, in anticipation of a forthcoming general containment of the Pandemic. The step-demand increase for its TrueVue Doppler systems in intensive care units (‘ICU’) that has been seen both from the UK & USA during Q1 2120 due to the Pandemic, however, is expected to be sustained. TPI considers together these will likely be sufficient to enable the Group to further raise reported revenues in the current year, while also generating good improvements in net profits and EPS.
Deltex Medical rightly claims global leadership in oesophageal Doppler monitoring. Uniquely, its twenty-two randomised controlled trials demonstrate the benefit of measuring aortic blood flow (using TrueVue Doppler) to optimise the clinical management of patients. In such a setting, these represent an extremely valuable asset for the Group, effectively allowing it to set the MedTech industry’s technological standards and points of reference for such equipment, a significant feature that cannot be claimed by any of its peer group. This point is highly relevant now that the world’s eyes are on the very real threat of coronavirus and similar respiratory pandemics to the human race’s wellbeing. As such, Deltex Medical’s business outlook appears to have improved quite dramatically in just the past few months, to the extent that much larger sector players envious of the Group’s preeminent Doppler monitoring research and development know-how and IP may already be considering their opportunities to gain control.

Living up to the market’s best expectations, Deltex Medical delivered a pre-exceptional operating profit for its year to December 2019, while also ending the period with a reasonable cash cushion. The benefits of restructuring undertaken over the past 18 months, combined with a new strategy focussed on cost elimination and raised efficiencies, now place the Group on a springboard for grow both through the current situation and the post-Pandemic period. In this respect, it is significant that UK and US intensive care units have already started placing orders for its specialist haemodynamic monitoring technology, with a view to assisting clinicians select the optimal treatment regime for ventilated COVID-19 patients. With potential for such equipment to become standardised and made widely available across global health authorities going forward, as governments commit significant new, long-term funding in an attempt to ensure they can much more rapidly address any such future calamity, Deltex Medical appears to be ideally placed to capitalise on such opportunities while also potentially contributing to a safer living environment for international populations.
Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic to date, the investment community has primarily focussed on the international populations’ immediate needs – specifically that of detection, diagnostics and vaccination – for which it has awarded a significant premium to the wider healthcare development sector in the process. Yet, most are now recognising that eradication of the virus itself is probably only one-third of the true challenge that now faces the global community. The other two-thirds will likely be found firstly in a significant redirection of government healthcare funding to more realistically face up to and cope with human vulnerabilities and, only then, to refocus on picking up the present ‘car crash’ of the developed-world economies in order to return to past agendas of growth, advancement and security. A number of companies, like Deltex Medical, appear capable and potentially ideally placed to offer their unique technologies, facilities and know-how to a post- Pandemic environment, that is likely to have become populated by newly hungry and well-funded public and private healthcare systems/organisations urgently seeking such solutions.

Agreed and a superb note. The potential is staggering, fully funded with £2m in labskin orders Q1, the mind boggles st the market cap.

Some highlights -

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom, Deltex Medical has seen an increase in demand for its TrueVue Doppler technology from NHS ICUs in order to help optimise the treatment of severely ill COVID-19 patients.

A number of NHS hospitals which have previously used the Group's TrueVue Doppler technology in their ICUs are placing orders as a result of the clinical challenges of treating COVID-19 patients in an ICU.

the Group has recently started to see demand for its TrueVue Doppler technology from hospitals in the USA for use in the ICUs.

As a result of COVID-19 there could be strong demand for haemodynamic monitoring in US ICUs and there is likely to be an overall lack of capacity from existing suppliers to satisfy this potential demand for haemodynamic monitoring technology. In order to satisfy this potential demand, Deltex Medical is preparing for a significant increase in demand from the US ICU market. As in the UK, it is difficult to predict the financial implications for the Group of such increased demand from US ICUs as a result of COVID-19.

the Group is focusing its primary sales activities on direct sales into the key UK and US healthcare markets. Nevertheless, activity is being seen in sales to ICUs in a number of international markets served by our distributors.

we have been able to make significant savings which has further enhanced our ability to generate cash even at lower activity levels.

Prospects

There are a number of underlying trends which are helping Deltex Medical's business, including:

-- an ageing population worldwide with more complex health issues;

-- a wider acceptance by clinicians of the need for haemodynamic monitoring;

-- an increasing focus on patient safety, including the reduction of avoidable complications;

-- the increasing reluctance of insurers to reimburse hospitals for the costs of avoidable complications, such as AKIs;

-- pressure on hospitals, especially in the USA, to reduce the cost of in-patient treatment; and

-- following the COVID-19 outbreak, an increasing focus on infectious diseases and pandemic preparedness.

The Board believes that Deltex Medical is well positioned to benefit from these trends which are seen in many healthcare markets around the world.

I’m invested in both although have taken 2/3rds off the table with NCYT and made some healthy profit and have left free carry. NCYT is the best of the lab based tests and is only 1 of 4 recommended by the WHO who has ordered many tests so all of the 4 should benefit.

NCYt is not currently producing 4m tests it sAid it is able to (run rate) but it seems pretty obvious they like all others are having issues sourcing materials, particularly reagents. That’s why they’re due to launch a new test without the need for scarce reagents next month and thst will put them ahead of the rest. If AVCT has a self administered accurate test it will blow all else away. There is a bottle neck at labs too so a cost effective pregnancy test style one will be a genuine game changer.

I expect RNSs from both next week, NCYT is due a sales/orders update (they won’t say how many have been fulfilled or when they can be due to materials etc) and a US update and AVCT will inform the market that they’ve sent the affirmers and who knows there may be a new partner announced too. Both great cos but more to AVCT and given the market caps there is surely a lot more inside in AVCT and if the test is launched it’ll be in double figures quickly.

They’ll probably let the market know the day before which seems to be happening with a few AiM PLCs.

I bet they want to announce the Azure offering has gone general public with the results which we know are poor.

Although with the head of Zeus’ wife buying a load it looks dodgy but as mentioned by others they’d need a stronger balance sheet before signing deals with partners so that had to come first as. Anyway, with plenty of cash and yes they’ll be some profit takers but with news on progress due in the coming weeks they’ll be gone soon enough.

I am tempted to buy more (have a mere 500k) but would have to reduce elsewhere. This looks primed to move more though.

Was lazy and as mentioned on advfn was barely edited re timescales and valuation. Surely all being well this will be Fast tracked by authorities and mass produced maybe be June even. AVCT clearly want to under promise and over deliver and like the rest of the world want this commercialised and mass produced as quickly as possibly.
“We have made an excellent start to our collaboration with Cytiva and we expect to shortly be able to provide Affimer reagents to Cytiva to implement on their rapid test strip technology.
I very much look forward to updating the market on progress with Cytiva and on other commercial partnerships in relation to coronavirus testing that we are pursuing."
Klaus Hochleitner, Global Lead, Technology Product Specialist at Cytiva, commented:
"I am delighted and impressed with the rapid progress made by our partners at Avacta and look forward to receiving Affimer reagents to implement in a lateral flow test on our platform as soon as possible."

It states Friday 24th at 8am shares admitted. Check out April 2020 circular.

That’s the issue, not lack of demand but meeting it. We can produce 4m tests now but clearly aren’t as it’s the run-rate. The competition for reagents particularly and other material are massive which is why demand can’t currently meet demand. Bottle necks at labs doesn’t help but we’ll be doing 1m/month from Cambridge uni alone in a week or two. Hopefully the new year being developed means we’re able to produce 4m+ tests a month rather than we could of we had enough materials.

A massive few weeks and short term a chunky US update!

Reading between the lines and with the appointment of Chartwell to help with supply chain and new materials suppliers they’re having issues meeting demand. A good problem to have but there are a lot of large cos competing for scarce reagents and other materials. I’m expecting a positive US update this week as it’ll be 5 weeks on Friday since FDA approval and the US is desperate for tests and Primer has the best, again the issue might be with materials.

The sooner they can get to 4m and then 8m and beyond the better for all!

The second GDR test that looks like a poorer version of AVCT’s given it can’t be done at home and needs administering.

NCYT dropping like a stone but had the best test of all providers and will launch a new one with different reagents (which are scarce) is cheapaeR higher throughput and although the share price may continue to fall I don’t see how GDR will compete with them Roche et al as they’re all chasing the same materials and they’re established

Why would anyone sell AVCT to buy here? The second test needs administering and the first will compete (when launched) with eatablished players and also compete for antigens and other materials. I think these guys are too late to the Party and their second test is pointless now

Yeah more this -
“There are a lot of countries that are suggesting using rapid diagnostic serological tests to be able to capture what they think will be a measure of immunity,” she said. “Right now, we have no evidence that the use of a serological test can show that an individual has immunity or is protected from reinfection.”
• The headline and opening paragraph of this article were amended on 20 April 2020 to clarify that the 2%-3% figure cited by the WHO referred to the population as a whole.

That said antigen and antibody tests will be needed for many many months of not years if no vaccine is developed which seems likely.

I have to say although £15m to £30m revenues sounds great the margin given the gov involvement and profit share will mean it a limited number to the bottom line but it’s needed cash nonetheless and gets ODX onto more radars. I like the CD4 product which is finally getting commercialised (unlike most here I’ve known ODX for years) so that should do well and obviously recent approval in China means increased revenue for its products.

Also, the WHO could amend their view as we know it’s probably likely.
WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to Covid-19 but if accurate does but bode well for any of us.

https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/20/studies-suggest-very-few-have-had-covid-19-without-symptoms?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true

Yeah fair point and that makes more sense.

Does anyone think the second test is being worked on or all resources on the first due in 5 weeks or so?

They hadn’t started on it from what the end of March RNS said and no mention today so I wonder if they’ll crack on once test 1 is sorted.

A good start to the week and a big gap on en route.

Well done holders. Out of interest do you know if the tests need reagents? There are some lucky punters who bought on Friday (and before!).