The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Elvis, Mookys 274m shares were worth £550m when the share price was 200p.
If one was to assume that after the restructure, ROW did emerge intact and was valued at the 2014 value of £500m, with an existing number of shares in issue of 1373m shares, that would see Cineworld ROW valued at 500m/1373m = 36p/share.
Naturally there are a number of factors to consider but this is not out of the realm of possibility.
Mooky's shares are currently worth £10.6m. If we did see 36p/share, Mooky's shares would swell to £98m.
The shares may be in the Plc but Cinema City International N.V. (which was valued at £500m in 2014 when it was bought by Cineworld) are where those operations remain registered.
The official statement from Cineworld was that "Chapter 11 restructuring process involves entities that are engaged in Cineworld’s US, UK and Jersey businesses; businesses in all other territories remain unaffected".
Given the current market cap is £50m it becomes apparent that the current share price is significantly undervalued, irrespective of the unsecured claim from Cineplex.
My simple take on this.
1. No attractive bids so far
2. Chapter 11 factors UK and US assets in scope for Debt for Equity
3. Rest of World (RoW) remain and emerge debt free.
What will RoW be worth? More than the current market cap of £56m?
I believe so and given Cineworld have advised that Cineworld Plc will remain and yes, the Cineplex synergies judgement remains but I believe Mooky and co will continue to fight it and it could drag out for years.
In this time, I would like to see RoW fully recover to 2019 admissions and reflect a higher market cap.
Yes, I’m aware it will involve debt for equity.
As long as RoW remains, I stand by my assertion that the market cap of RoW will be worth more than the current market cap.
So let it come if necessary.
Mate, give it a rest.
You seem more consumed with what others are posting than having an interest/position in the company.
Go join a knitting club if you're bored and take the melt, Wellington with you.
That would be fantastic Sharebel/ProfitJock.
If it drops more, I'll be ready to load-up.
The most shares RI can remove from the free float the better I say!
Richard Gutierrez, Senior Director of Business Operations at AEG says, "The new agreement between AEG and Regal cements our shared commitment to L.A. LIVE's LONG-TERM success by providing a state-of-the-art theatre for moviegoers all across the area."
If no bidders want to buy Regal and UK Cineworld, fine - let the creditors extend the terms and support Cineworld fighting the over-inflated synergy unsecured claim against Cineplex.
I've added more at 3.6p and I'll keep buying dips to ensure I pick-up shares from weak hands.
This is my strategy and de-rampers and fanboys of those with contrarian views can do what they please.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/regal-enters-into-long-term-lease-agreement-for-regal-la-live-theatre-301745514.html
What a complete waste of energy!
Nobody is perfect investing.
Getting frustrated at random internet posters is utterly pointless and merely consumes your own precious time.
If you’re looking for sincerity, you’re in the wrong place.
My advice to you, Bonkers is accept your own decisions and strategies and put it down to experience.
Life is far too short to be wasting it venting here. Mind you it is cheaper than a psychiatrist.
Is the brand worth more than that, alone?
I believe so.
Small position taken.
I would love to see the Qatar Investment Authority which manages assessments and investments or almost $500bn put a bid in. As you say, their spend for the World Cup was astronomical.
$220 billion: An estimated cost of what Qatar spent over the past ten years in preparation for the World Cup. Government officials have never confirmed the number, but in 2017, Qatar’s minister of finance said the country was spending $500 million per week on capital projects.
They are spending a lot to shift public opinion and entice more investment.
It is common knowledge cinema is a great advertisement medium, so perhaps it is not out of the realm of possibility?
All we need now is someone saying their wife is going to kill them and then another poster will state there is always the Samaritans.
There are far too many emotional or faux emotion posters who all have an agenda.
Watch for the games and if your risk appetite allows, buy the dip.
It will all be internal this week and then next week or the week after we should have some news or movement if there is a leak.
Sensible approach, CTC. 100k shares is £5K and worth a punt.
Good luck!
Best post I have read, HNS.
Sharabel you posted with your FUD account in error lol
The existing convertible loan doesn’t mature until April 2025, which was for $200m for emergency funding during the height of the pandemic.
The state of the company was in a very different position. We are now seeing a gradual box office recovery but I don’t believe a further credit line and convertible bond can be completely dismissed, particularly as chapter 11 has presented an opportunity to cut back on leases on poor performing theaters and allowed the renegotiation of supply chain terms with existing suppliers.
A number of outcomes exist but for now we have just another day for non binding offers to come in.
The pair of you are like women gossiping. Oh he said this and that.
Who cares if others are overly optimistic. Sharabel is ramping yes, but that doesn’t mean everyone who isn’t extremely pessimistic is a mindless ramper.
2 days, non binding bids need to be delivered and they need to be attractive if they want to go through the next round.
It should not be surprising after such little news from the company, mana are getting a little excited at that prospect.
I’m off to Mayfair, London to bid £50k on a £5m flat… I will explain the mortgage costs will be too high, otherwise.
That should get me through the next stage, right?!
SuperDud didn’t think that de-ramp through. Claiming he sold a £27k investment for £500 just reveals he is a BS artist like most of the derampers here. Keep it up. What little integrity you had is long gone. Sign out and use another username now.
As for Wellington explaining that 10+ bidders to bid low in the first round, is the most logical approach also reveals the motive of these desperados. If they don’t believe this is a good investment, join SuperDud and head to the exit, but wasting your time to dissuade others and see they sell a £27k investment for 509 quid is beyond pathetic.
"The float is 1 billion shares and only 3% shorted. Short squeeze is out of the question."
Not necessarily. Only those with a position over 0.5% are disclosed. There could be plenty below that threshold who will need to cover if/when the time comes.
For now, many don't really care for those short as they have their positions and strategy and others have theirs - it boils down to their investment and risk appetite.
16/02 will be the deadline for non-binding bids and then Cineworld and the CH11 stakeholders will review and then request those with serious bids to come forth and make them more formal and binding.
So offering peanuts is not going to be something worthwhile when it will be thrown out at the first round!