The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Sorry I didn’t mean it had no value. Definitely a great play for the long game by DW. I just meant that I don’t think it will have a huge impact in the short/medium term. Hope I’m wrong anyway!
The oil price volatility at the moment isn’t the best time to make final deals anyway so I hope everything will stabilise a little by 2020/2021 when we + farm out partner are proving up the entire field. I know others believe 88e will be sold off earlier but the most accreative path is not the quickest way!
Completely agree with your viewpoint Phronist.
Hope the Rns delivering this news is not succinct and is appropriately detailed as I am assuming the contract itself
Will not be public information.
I don’t expect any information regarding Yukon to make any impact on the SP (based on the little
Impact recent total oil volume increases made). Hopefully DW pulls out a rabbit from the hat regarding drilling a well there.
We don't know what the BODs strategy is at this point. Might have been better than expected for PI raise as suggested as a minority of shareholders wanted first dibs on placing shares (as requested from previous placings). There is now a 3 month window to raise the rest from institutional investors (if required) depending on farmout progress.
IMHO this is DW's backup plan to make sure we meet our share of the costs for Winx flow tests if there is any delay or suboptimal farmout plan that is achieved by YE2018. All speculation so best to await further direction form RNS'
The upgraded conventional is based just on the western acreage that has now processed 3d. Any company wanting to be involved via a farm out will be interested in not only the current discoveries/prospects/leads but any possible upside from shooting 3d across the rest of the acreage.
The conventional potential is incredible (obvious risks associated) and we still have the original primary aim of unconventional to develop. I've taken up my RI without any hesitation!
I just hope DW gets a good deal and he isnt giving away 70% of the entire acreage in one go! I can't imagine any tier1 company promising a work programme of 70% of 2.2billion at 3$ barrel at this point!
Based on the Armstrong/Oilsearch deal, the value of any conventional farmout agreement for our entire area is going into the billions according to my calculations (which surely must be wrong!?)
Do any of the more experienced members in the oil world have a realistic prediction of what we are expecting with this deal? I can’t imaging that shooting 3d over the entire acreages in addition to 2+2 wells is going to cost more than a few hundred million so why make a deal for the entire acreage?
Maybe I’m looking at it wrong but can’t find any examples of other companies that have been in the same situation.
Anybody have any thoughts?
So many unknowns that will start to be answered in this "transformational period". Been waiting for a long time so i hope this time we get it right!
DW certainly gives a professional appearance and hence my comfort in investing in this company. He has always maintained a strategy that is acreative to shareholders. Production vs Sell proven land - i leave it to his discretion.
Yukon - we can only speculate how this will be developed. Maybe another collaboration with junior partners on the back of WINX if succcesful? WINX and Yukon are both small enough (area wise) with a path to market for 88e to full field develop. CR might be needed / might not but even if it does cause dilution, the upside should more than make up for this.
MikeMike i would love to believe that but i think the 525mb that 88e would have rights to would still be oil in ground value at $5per barrel. As you say this is the value after full field production and thus highlight potential. We are still in the middle of the journey to prove this up.
I agree that in combination with the other projects there is the "potential" for significant value in this company but there is still a higher risk of setbacks and failure as with any junior explorer.
I am personally interested in WINX as this is the project where we may realise full value of any oil found if the plan to continue to production occurs.
I remain optimistic but am a realist based on my own research. My own opinion is that the market will not price this company correctly at any point (even if we succeed in a great farm out deal) as the price is based on investor sentiment. The final value will be determined by the final deal with a major - however best not to dwell on this at the moment and just concentrate on each step as it occurs. Good luck to us all.