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PSN was way overpriced compared to the other builders (still is) the premium was because of the divi. When that is cut, the premium is slashed.
Revenue means nothing if your paying it all out (and more). Mcg made a loss so don’t tell me it has a higher pbt.
Marstons looked cheap and at an all time low when the market cap was £400m, it’s now sub £200m and is a better business than MCG.
MCG is effectively owned by the creditors and the interest cover isn’t enough to cover these higher rates.
Only half? Ok I’ll sell when doubles from here then.
This is still on a bull run, although it has more than tripled it still has a long way to go yet as it’s still 97% down from where is was.
Hindy, I’m not a genius by any means. I simply look which way the wind has been blowing for the past 2 years and set my sail accordingly.
I wouldn’t go long on this until the Mcap is below 200m.
It will go below 1000 regardless unless were to interest rates come down which obviously can’t happen.
Whatever the reason, a crash is a crash. SP will continue to slide with the dead cat bounces along the way.
I’ve been short for a while. Follow the trend- Easy money.
How’s your crystal ball doing?
These comments are hilarious. Everyone saying the same thing they were saying at 150, “it’s cheap” “it’s just trying to find a bottom” “it’s silly season”. Will be saying the same things at 50p.
I almost invested in Nex a few weeks ago. So glad I didn’t! If you think Mobico with all its debt and no profit is worth £658m then buy some more. If not, it’s best to just cut and run.
The BOD has made a massive mistake IMO to change the ticker to something nobody’s ever heard of, and the new SP chart just looks like a falling knife have fallen nearly 10% since it started last weeek. At that rate it will be sub 50p in a few weeks.
FF, I don’t think anyone is waiting for 95% drops. Personally, I’ll start buying when the prices are about 30% lower than they are today.
Buy backs are good for propping up the SP, and a good investment for the group in good times but we aren’t in good times. There will be downward pressure on the SP for a while yet.
FF, BDEV has £1.1b of cash, but it also has £2.36b of liabilities so it has about £1.2b net debt which isn’t far off the 2008 figure you quoted.
Https://www.yopa.co.uk/homeowners-hub/a-history-of-house-price-crashes/
The reason things don’t seem too bad just yet is people are still on their cheap fixes. This doesn’t help HB’s though because people will stay in their current house on a cheap rate rather than buy a new house at 6% rates.
When those cheap fixes come to an end, repossessions will start coming through and we’ll have a repeat of the 80’s where property is too hot to handle. 2008 is spoken about as if it was a one off event. The reality is these crashes happen every 15 years. I remember the one in the early 90’s, and my parents tell me the same happened in the 70’s.
Sometimes the decline does go on forever, especially with so much debt, but about 18p I’ll say is the bottom. Covid low was 19p but fullers and Wetherspoons went substantially below covid lows.
We effectively have a liquidity crisis today. House prices have been fuelled by cheap credit and that is no longer available.
Say you had £1000 a month budget for a mortgage. Last year, you’d have got £211k at 3% over a 25 year term. With mortgages now at 6%, that same monthly payment would get you £155k. That means they can borrow about 26% less, so one would assume house prices need to come down by a similar amount, wiping out the HB’s margin. Then there’s rising building costs too. And with everything else going up, would people still have the same £1,000 budget for a mortgage?
You could argue today is worse than 2008. Interest rates should’ve been 3% minimum 10 years ago to avoid all this artificial growth before everything comes crashing back down to reality.
December 2008 it fell to £1.85 from about £15.
Today, the book value is about twice at high as 2008, and the peak is also about twice as high this time at £32, so I predict the bottom will also be twice as high at around £4, or maybe a tad under- which I predict will come this December.
What do others think?
Very much doubt there will be any further dividends at least for the next 12 months.