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It will be along similar lines to BDEV, but the market will act surprised and all HB’s go down again.

Don’t think it would’ve gone below £1 had it not been for the name change.

Folk don’t know what to make of it.

Still not worth the risk imo. We’re not out of the woods in the UK.

Hold on to your hats!

Stagecoach deal was 2021 when debt financing was much cheaper. You can’t compare oranges with apples.

Realistically all house builders will struggle to make a profit at the moment so you have to value them based on a percentage of book value. Land values have fallen since the accounts were produced so a 30% discount seems fair.

If you value them based on profits during better times, you may find yourself taking a haircut when these profits don’t materialise in the next results.

Anyone invested here has already lost money, it’s a question of how much more they’re prepared to lose…

What an absolute sh*t storm the housebuilders have and they decide to increase taxes on the sector right now? Rising costs, falling house prices, falling completions, rectifying the cladding, help to buy finished, mortgages being pulled, now increased corporation tax with another 4% tax thrown in for good measure!

What’s the point being entrepreneurial these days? All just goes in tax and then the gov wonders why we have no growth.

House prices won’t drop 30%.

They’ll probably drop 15% like the did in 2008. PSN dropped 85% in 2008 which would give us a £4 share price this time round.

Devtrad,

Regardless of investment amount, wouldn’t you agree it would be illogical to continue holding a share that he beleives will half in value?

Why not take the emotion out of it, sell and buy back when it does half? Surely that helps get the money back quicker/protects the capital?

Easy living,

If your sure these will half why not sell? It seems people are too stubborn to cut their losses and would rather go down fighting.

Steve, it’s a dangerous game trying to buy short term bounces based on patterns etc when the economic headwind is dragging the stock down long term. Take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

Steve, how do you know that me and Mike haven’t opened a short? Everyone is entitled to their opinion regardless.

I wouldn’t base any investment decision based on British bulls. The number of crosses shows they get it wrong far more than they get it right.

Even if interest rates have peaked, we haven’t seen the effect filter through to the housing market yet, or the HB’s bottom line, and that is when the real pain comes.

On the balance of probabilities, there’s no doubt PSN is likely to fall further because the economic headwinds are only getting worse. I understand investors like yourself are reluctant to cut their losses, but having sold at £12, I can tell you it was a very wise decision.

For any sudden upturn “without warning sign” ie no reason for doing so, it would come back down as happened many times in 2008.

Sustainable rises will only happen when interest rates start coming down. I wouldn’t be interested in buying a dead cat bounce.

Steve, I get your argument but the way I see it is I’d rather pay a 10% premium for it once we’re out of the sh*t instead of risking a 40-50% fall from here. Add to that my capital is doing very nicely elsewhere and I’ll probably have made the 10% premium elsewhere anyway.

Bottom line is there is money to be made here but the horse won’t bolt overnight.

Steve,

Nobody knows, this may well be the bottom, it may fall among her 50%.

The fact is until high inflation/interest rates is well and truly in the rear view mirror, this hasn’t reached the bottom. If the economic climate changes, I’ll buy in. It might cost me 10% extra, but at least I have t risked a 40~50% fall, and my capital in doing very nicely invested in centrica in the meantime.

I never try to get in at the bottom, you almost certainly take a haircut first. Just suppose we are at the bottom now (I don’t think we are) and interest rates come down and everything starts looking rosy, I’d rather get in at £11/12 moving upwards than at £10 with a risk of moving downwards.

Hope it does paddy. I sense the desperation in your posts.

If it’s only the debt level holding this down then why doesn’t the same apply to all other companies with high debt like carnival or IAG?

Yes, anyone buying asos on the way down were fools as well, not sure what the relevance is though. At least it’s not been as bad as that just yet.