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It was good while it lasted.

How can this be down 8% on no news?

It’s now trading at 50% of tangible book value. Absolutely crazy valuation. Must be a take over target for one of the bigger housebuilders?

How can housebuilders be down today? Absolutely absurd!!

It’s the first hold in nearly 2 years for god sake!!!

Https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/july2023

Https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/july2023

Https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/july2023

As I predicted, Crest Nicholson is seeing the biggest recovery today. Still trading at just over half tangible book value. Last day to get in before it goes ex dividend tomorrow.

Well, the buys are now more than double the sells, and yet its 4.3% down, so I’m convinced the whole pricing is manipulated by the big boys.

No real concern for me though because I bought my shares exactly have tangible book value and am in it for the long haul….

It’s trading at around 4x it’s book price excl goodwill.

Strictly,

You’re probably the most knowledgeable person on this board, so I’m going to hijack the thread and ask you a question unrelated to PSN.

Crest is down over 3% today, but if we look at the stats, there has been almost twice as many buys as sells. How can this happen??

The same thing happened in July, 2 days before inflation data it dropped by a similar amount, allowing the institutions to buy in cheap, and then it shot up 21% in 2 days.

Vol. Sold 59,127

Sold Value £107.45k

Vol. Bought 108,182

Bought Value £196.69k

I find the arrogance of many posters on here (thinking they are Warren buffet) very amusing.

“I buy when others are fearful” “As a smart investor, buy when the AVERAGE JOES are having a panic attack”

Smart investors don’t buy companies that has a book value made up almost entirely of goodwill, aka nothing.

And then of course you have he experts predicting a 20% rise on this negative outlook 😂

I think you may be missing a trick strictly by not paying much attention to the chart. At the end of the day the only way to bank a profit in this game is by buying low and selling high, and the chart is a bloody good guide of what high and what’s low.

Strictly,

I’ll buy anything at the right price, but at over 9 quid a pop, I wouldn’t touch Vistry with a barge pole.

I don’t have anything against Redrow, I’m just mindful that the markets are very fickle, so I don’t like to pay £5. when the chart suggests there may be an opportunity to buy at 430-450ish in the near future.

Having had my fingers burnt in PSN, I only buy bargain stocks that I really feel compelled to buy. If I feel it could go either way, I’m just not interested. So I have a strict checklist before I buy any stock, and it must meet all of the following:

1. Be in an industry I understand

2. Be at a low price it has previously bounced from

3. Be profitable, not burning cash

4. I don’t pay any more than 80% of tangible book value

At present Redrow fails point 2 of my checklist, and is at risk of revisiting 430ish should the sentiment change.

I know I’ve been banging the drum on this for a while, but nothing comes close to the value of Crest. It’s the only HB institutions have bought of late (unless I’m mistaken?) and it always sees the daily biggest bounce on positive macro news.

£4.28 to be precise would be my buy in for RDW, £5.50 for Vistry.

Strictly,

I’m not surprised. Vistry and Redrow have been very much “in fashion” this week, hence the high prices. I prefer to buy stocks when they aren’t “in fashion” and prices are at rock bottom, Hence I put most of my portfolio in crest (at 172) the day they issued revised profit guidance. Of course, if the noise is to be something to be concerned about, then I’m cautious, but let’s be honest, a trough £50m earnings against a sub £500m market cap company isn’t to be sniffed at, particularly when the tangible book value is twice the share price.

I note your previous comments about Redrow, and it is very much pencilled in on my watchlist as a buy if the chart pattern continues and I can get in at 4 quid a share.

Personally I’m short on Vistry & Redrow, as a hedge against my long position on Crest.

Vistry is trading ridiculously high in comparison to other HB’s. Redrow doesn’t look overpriced, but will probably fall from this level if the chart pattern continues (and if inflation data is unfavourable next week). Crest has quite a lot of ground to make up in its recovery since Liz truss, and is undoubtedly the best value in PBV terms by quite some margin against any other HB.

Will be interesting to see what the inflation data brings next week. If it’s good news, I’ll get stung a little on my short positions, but crest will benefit the most, just as it did back in July having bounced 21% in just 4 days. Plus it goes ex divi the day after, so I think I’m on to an overall winner either way.

Time will tell…

I’m not wrong Steve, but you are, again. Inflation data is on the 20th. The BoE meet on the 21st.

Wrong again Steve. That’s on the 20th.

Https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/sep/04/hsbc-and-natwest-cut-mortgage-rates-again-as-others-tipped-to-follow?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab

This has some way to fall yet once investors realise the suspension has been lifted. Only 12% down when it just lost 3x the market cap.