Member Info for regdik

NMH19
Majors know that smaller companies do not have the same cash reserves to match a JV/FO therefore it is common to take into consideration the sunk cost and value of the licence/field. This in effect sets the level of contribution they will make (cash up front to the Mino). IT WILL NOT be the case $ for $. Therefore, I see no need for a cash raise or extra shares to be issued for this reason. I agree that this will not be a multi billion deal if it is a JV but compared where we are now it will be substantial to FRR and with the benefit of a Royalty on production ongoing for many years. It will make FRR the Billion/s $ company that ZaZa wants and a force in the region.

just go on the bp website its all there in multi colour and as an employee and bp pensioner - I know its fact. Not just stuff you make up to post on a bb to back your trading style.

filtered as you are not worth the effort

Shed you obviously never worked for an oil major. If you did you would be fully immersed in corporate ethics and "doing the right thing". They are not end of block car salesmen and pride themselves in being honest in their dealing although they seek to do a good deal for their SH's, employees, pensioners, contractors and supplier chains.

It looks to me that the deal/s are almost done and its down to timing that agreeable to all parties involved (FRR/GG/FRR).

A honest shorter (well you did say you are betting against FRR success - hence a short must be in place). As an oiler and indirectly involved in many M&A activities with one of the biggest O&G majors the time line is not uncommon. Technical evaluation will almost certainly be done and discussions around a deal can take many months due to the parties involved (remember GG has to be involved). The lawyers will be having a field day
You have to realise IT WILL NOT BE FRR to announce the deal but the "buyer" quickly followed by conformation by FRR (same day as it's a listed company). So its not FRR time line but the buyers.
Still lack of ANY facts just assumptions based on your trading position FRR all bad - my view will make you poor and me rich. What a sad person. .

Something I posted but based on fact
According to the world league of oil producing nations Georgia is 91st with 400bpd during 2016 census returns (146000bpy).
Next door Azerbaijan (23rd) who shares the same oil basin produced 833538bpd during the same period (304,241,370bpy).
The difference is that one had a number of majors invest billions of dollars the other a few wildcat prospectors struggling with the geology. Until NOW.
Forget the few train loads and the increasing auctions the potential with significant investment is there under their feet. FRR using modern drilling methods and a lot of time proving the basin is rich in oil bearing layers that stretch from Azerbaijan through Georgia, under the black sea, into Ukraine and Moldova. These have now been modelled and being scrutinised by two majors.
We have seen the mood change towards energy in Georgia from “we have nothing” to now a quite confidence and a number of companies buying licences throughout the country. Majors sending in delegations and US inviting Georgia to sit at the table and talk of joint trading benefits (a country no bigger in population that the East Midlands).
FRR may be cash strapped but they are sitting on probably the richest field re-discovered in years. I suspect GG want a major to take a larger role to accelerate access to these riches. Hence the arbitration request and I see this more of a prompt to get a move on than a real threat.
FRR being cash strapped others may see that this is an opportunity to squeeze and try and manipulate a greater share if not all of the prize.
FRR have a track record of using the courts, AC, US political friends to their advantage (and now ours). I hope they can twist and weave to keep the vultures at bay until a deal lands. Then the YA/Outrider debt will be peanuts. A risk yes but we are playing for very big stakes here not just us but for a whole region – just look what O&G has done for Azerbaijan.

I don’t bother with crystal balls I just do plain old research and look for companies that can offer both strong management and tenacity to win.
Research shows me that the region is rich in deposits of O&G and public record shows me that licences to operate around the FRR have been bought by other respected O&G companies. Public record also tells me that GG require that local companies be employed to fulfil the terms (Uni and C07). GG made a big show of showing Exxon around the country and visited many O&G area’s. Nomad has verified that the majors are significant players that have signed the NDA. Public record also shows an increase in oil auctions. We now know YA were at fault and have backtracked and accepted poor terms of repayment. Outrider are now between a rock and a hard place.
Oh and the big one the high number of negative posters has increased its just a pity their augments are paper thin and a can be blown away by fact.

Er…. can I refer you to the rise from .06 to .8 in a few weeks is that not a mulibag on this share?

Reading the RNS again the line/s that sticks out to me
“The Company has also the right to convert Series A shares into ordinary shares instead of cash redemption and the right to pay down in cash the entire redemption amount for the outstanding number of Series A shares at any moment”
Interesting that they can pay off YA at the drop of a hat. The repayments being back loaded infers that FRR are expecting some cash coming in and have reduced the initial payments to a level that falls into the 15M seller domain – interesting that.

All in all a good move by ZaZa and as I posted earlier drops Outrider and Steve Hope in the mire and thinking of that the second part becomes even more interesting “the Company and YA mutually released each other from claims relating to this disagreement”. As FRR had YA by the short and curly I would have expected a little bit more of a retribution. Has FRR gained some incite from YA to the shorter crew or any connection between them and Outrider that will help FRR screwing Hope and Outrider (for bigger bucks). Nice if that was the case.

Have a good weekend .

So the curse of YA has been lifted and I’m sure that a YA none shorting clause has been inserted. I have a feeling that Outrider have ben the real target here and it will be interesting to see how this will be resolved as the default situation has been deemed a none event. Therefore, Outrider have no grounds to substantiate their claim. However, it leaves Steve Hope with a problem if he disclosed sensitive information then his position as a director is intendable and Outrider acting on this shows a collusion to gain. A resignation, a fine at least and compensation to FRR.
I wonder is YA were in on this to get off so lightly?
Oh well looking forward to the next instalment in this saga.

Now Georgia are welcome guests in Washington and there is and acceptance that they may have more than dirt beneath their feet. Delegations met in both Georgia and Washington both political and big business. FRR have friends in high places and great contacts in O&G industry and the time was right to share their latest testing results and invite majors to come, see, feel and participate in upgrading the CPR. I understand that this has been going on for over a year. The majors have technical folks in Georgia and they have suggested additional tests and methods. FRR had to invest in similar expertise to ensure that they to fully understood what was required and how best use the data to formulate a plan to conduct a sensible commercial discussion (O&G are hard negotiators). This probably prompted the GG to look at arbitration as it is/was going very slowly and the $$$ that they would see in investment and eventual share of the product slipping.
So why no deal to date I assume is around how do you value the asset in the ground the cost of extraction as the amount they seem to have increased as more data is produced. The more we have the more the majors will want in and the more they will seek a JV/FO arrangement.
So ZaZa has two aces in his hand and is playing poker with all comers. YA and Outrider have been caught cheating and may be thrown out of the game. Lets hope its a winning hand and not a busted flush,
So how long – as long as it takes.

The next instalment in my how series

Lots of speculation of when will a deal will be struck.
First you got to understand that majors have been looking at Georgia for a long time due to the similar topography to Azerbaijan. Russia tried and had initial success extracting oil but the pressure, mud issue and lack of good transportation (access to market) slowly drained interest as the wells silted up and the flows became a dribble. Gas actually was an issue as it caused complications no local market and hindered oil extraction. If the Russians had todays drilling and separation technologies then Georgia will still be a Russian state (or run by the Oligarchs).
Independence and a gradual move o the West and NATO has given the majors greater confidence to look to invest in the country.
Some will say that BP are in Georgia and have invested billions in the country but that has mainly been on a pipeline that traverses across the country to take other Nations product to Market.
Then about 3 years ago a man with a yellow tie stood up at a meeting with a CPR and said we have found what would be the fifth biggest gas field in the world oh and a few billion barrels of oil too. AC said well done and the minister from Azerbaijan looked shocked. Georgia Energy minister rubbished the claim whilst signing a hydro energy project that he had a personal interest. The POO fell to all time low and the majors cancelled many new development projects. FRR had to turn to fund by BoD loans and then the dreaded YA. At the time we thought SN had shares in YA. Dilution followed and followed as FRR fought to keep the lights on and creditors from taking the asset for next to nothing (sounds current).
The majors did get copies of the CPR back then but the pesky Russians decided to annex a big chunk of Ukraine and political volatility came to the fore (majors are risk averse around politically stability issues).

BM - this is like taking candy from a baby.
In 2016 FRR told us nothing we had Mole, Bugsy and the tam of Supa sleuths troll the courts and found the information we required the RNS were pre court case and represented FRR view. would you like to comment on my Sunday afternoon post "how much?" as this is more relevant to today.

BM I think at the time we thought FRR got a reasonable result delayed payment and NO share option. Time enough to bring in the wells and generate cash – as they are doing now. Todays RNS if true is bad reading for Outrider and Steve Hope and totally different to 2016.
Bring some real facts to the boards for relevant discussion (2016 was discussed to death and FRR are still here).
You must be paid by the word and what you ae posting is not worth a cent.

BM you are not very good at this are you. I think you better call in the A team to help you out as you are sinking fast. I hope that Mr Hope did not abuse his position of trust as a director of FRR. The articles he would have to have signed means anything going on in FRR stays in FRR. If there was a conflict of interest he would have to excuse himself from the Board for those discussions. If he did not he was in breach of trust. I think he may have seen an opportunity to personally gain (or Outrider) from sensitive information. If so this is a big No No as a director. The RNS is worded that he has sort personal gain from privileged information a bit like insider trading. If he also shared this with others this becomes a criminal offence.

you have that more than slightly incorrect. The injunctions will not stop BAU and any potential deal. All the courts will due is rule according to the letter of law. It will rule on any gain or loss between the date of injection and final outcome and apply to any damages.

According to the world league of oil producing nations Georgia is 91st with 400bpd during 2016 census returns (146000bpy).
Next door Azerbaijan (23rd) who shares the same oil basin produced 833538bpd during the same period (304,241,370bpy).
The difference is that one had a number of majors invest billions of dollars the other a few wildcat prospectors struggling with the geology. Until NOW.
Forget the few train loads and the increasing auctions the potential with significant investment is there under their feet. FRR using modern drilling methods and a lot of time proving the basin is rich in oil bearing layers that stretch from Azerbaijan through Georgia, under the black sea, into Ukraine and Moldova. These have now been modelled and being scrutinised by two majors.
We have seen the mood change towards energy in Georgia from “we have nothing” to now a quite confidence and a number of companies buying licences throughout the country. Majors sending in delegations and US inviting Georgia to sit at the table and talk of joint trading benefits (a country no bigger in population that the East Midlands).
FRR may be cash strapped but they are sitting on probably the richest field re-discovered in years. I suspect GG want a major to take a larger role to accelerate access to these riches. Hence the arbitration request and I see this more of a prompt to get a move on than a real threat.
FRR being cash strapped others may see that this is an opportunity to squeeze and try and manipulate a greater share if not all of the prize.
FRR have a track record of using the courts, AC, US political friends to their advantage (and now ours). I hope they can twist and weave to keep the vultures at bay until a deal lands. Then the YA/Outrider debt will be peanuts. A risk yes but we are playing for very big stakes here not just us but for a whole region – just look what O&G has done for Azerbaijan.
The numbers are too big for a buy out so the only course will be a JV/FO with FRR getting royalties or share swap.
Not long left to go as this is boiling up ready to blow (one way or another). His share is NOT for the risk averse. Forget the fat lady lets just get Pavarotti to sing.

Some very interesting posts and theories floating around. As we have little to go on apart from trusting the big mans word and that the Nomad has checked the facts surrounding Majors, YA, Arbitration and now Outrider. Having met the Nomad I'm sure he's got a few more grey hairs and spent a few late nights ensuring what FRR published is accurate and has substance to back the claim. As I posted earlier I think outrider blindsided FRR and to ensure that the market got the news (not the usual crew to announce it on Twitter and BB's) ZaZa issued this RNS and most expected the SP to drop to new lows. Its held up rather well.
I for one think FRR are now aligned fully with SH's and are trying to protect their and our interests and if this means court action or taking out injunctions then i'm all for it.
Are Outrider trying to force FRR hand and in effect take them down and forcing a default and pick up the company for a song. The only credible reason is that a deal of sorts is imminent and 30Mil will be chicken feed when they could have the lot. Hence, this action – remember Mr Hope will have the inside track being a director so he will know what is happening with which majors and approx. timelines. So is he trying now for the lot as the 30Mil will be a consolation prize in 2020. No ethics in business where dog eats dog but I hope ZaZa has a bigger bite.

If outrider issue came out of an opportunistic move them l think zaza may look to close a deal early and get rid of outrider and ya from the table. Might cost a few million but in the long term their is enough opportunity to recoup else where. Ok I'm going to say it. Wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend. But l feel a deal is only a week or two away.

Interesting times we live in especially if you are a FRR SH.

Why the RNS and written in such a way that the Outrider issue was mentioned after the Majors reiteration, FCA notice (worried shorters reporting ZaZa), Arbitration then Outrider.
All I can suggest is that Outrider wanted to force FRR hand and that the YA issue (non payment) means that they are in technical default and this allowed them to ask for payment or conversation to shares!!! So FRR counter claimed in the Cayman courts so effectively freezing any forward motion on this as its now subject to a court hearing (could take many months) in the mean time a Major deal is landed before Outrider can force FRR to convert the loan to shares. Good move by FRR.
Gosh how empty is this box that everyone wants a share off.

Most seem to forget that this field bordering a tectonic plate between Europe and Asia. The pressure below ground is enormous which makes it a difficult drilling environment. However, it also has benefits in O&G as it forces the oil and gas molecules tighter together and has formed this mega field over the millions of years. As stated a gas bearing layer is over 2000m thick (unheard of) and hence the huge potential claimed. The mud was always an issue but this seems to have been overcome. Plus the free flowing oil is at a greater depth and of exceptional quality. If the majors have been sniffing around since June/July they will now have a clear picture of the field and a greater feel of what is viable and how best to extract. If they believe it was not financially viable they would have walked away before now and the Nomad would ensure the market was informed.
So we have two majors talking to FRR about O&G development and I'm sure GG and the US will be monitoring every move as this is both commercial and politically game changer for the region. One of the most telling quotes was SOCAR saying it welcomed competition in Georgia - who as Azerbaijan are struggling to fill the new pipeline. . They must be convinced something is about to happen. Forget the 3 months I think ZaZa was allowing traders think that they could deal for a little while longer..... whist he could release an RNS any day now and by just mentioning the majors by name would send the SP to new heights hitting shorts and traders in one fell swoop. . .