Member Info for regdik

Highest it has been regarding what we have in the ground (everyone wants it). Hope has thrown in a spanner and I hope ZaZa picks it up and hits him around the chops with it. ZaZa is confident so why not me.

Buying any share you have to have a do you research and validate the risk. I have been invested in this over 10 years. we have seen many false dawns and cupboard full of jam. However, SN and ZaZa have fought tooth and nail to keep this company afloat despite politics, dirty practices and trying to change from prospector (find and sell) to field operator (field development). My hats off to both of them and hence I have stayed invested and not sold. I sick by my investments in FRR and have faith in ZaZa.

Star - two ways
first he as a director might to take over the company keeping it as a going concern but into private ownership.
second he could take over the intellectual property rights of the data worth millions plus all of the other assets (worth well over what Outrider paid for the debt).
Both not good for SH's.
But he would have to be totally watertight but remember the debt is not due for a couple of years and the action seemed to be triggered by YA issue. That was a none incident now so Hope is not on solid ground.

I have to agree where there is uncertainty the major will sit back and wait. I’m sure Hope has contacted the major and offered a deal as will have known the name and status of the deal with FRR with his directorship. Hence all is to play for. Hope thought he was no a no lose situation by trying to force a default and take the asset or if he is unsuccessful then sit back and get the 30M (or best part of it). I’m sure the major wants the asset and I’m sure Hope is the cheaper option as he has no interest in O&G and will look for a quick sale. This will be attractive to the major as ZaZa knows the true value and will be driving a hard deal.
FRR therefore are playing very hardball on this and counter claiming due to his actions. I can’t see an out of court settlement because we are taking very big bucks for the winner. The debt still remains so what has Hope got to lose. Can you see the judge offering the full claim value if FRR are successful they may get a few million but not the lot. If FRR are not successful the only thing they can lose is the licence as a “default status” reverts the licence to the Georgian Government most posters have missed that point – FRR would be bankrupt and therefore in full default (written in to all LTO’s). The GG would then put the block up for auction. Hence another reason why the Major should wait.
Every confidence that ZaZa by forcing this has a strong hand to play.

I got my book in the charity shop for 50p. It was brought in by a tramp who was mumbling smithing about a lost fortune. Anyway l find it very useful as a door stop and a back up if l run out of loo paper.

Cant be true Gary can spell

Funny that.....TW claiming we got nowt but we should have our licence revoked for drilling empty holes in the soil. What about the 300 Georgian employees that would be thrown out of work just before Christmas. So the GG should act on an idiot of an idea spawned by some fool who is a laughing stock in the industry. I wish he had the guts to post on here instead of the half wits he send on here.

an empty box in barrow is a new home Coggy.

Do not forget FRR have a workforce to look after and keep busy (and pay) as BH gear up to deploy their forces. As I said when the MOU was announced that it would take months planning and prepping (geologists and logistics) before they start. They do not just turn up next day and say we will drill over there! A lot of planning and projects will have been kicked off by BH but these take time and for FRR life has to go on.
This RNS tells everyone that the company is still open for business whist the other distractions go on.
Good management by the FRR team

Looks like the risk of drilling in the black sea has exponentially increase with the Russians playing the hard man with Ukraine. This will make the off shore development of Black sea by the majors a risk too far at this period of time.
Can only make on shore more attractive and I'm sure America will want to get a firm foot hold in Georgia to counter this threat. Political pressure will be ramping up as I type this to US corporates to start putting feet on the ground and get the Georgia/US partnerships going. .

Interesting situation
We seemingly have FRR going gung hoe at Outrider but previously letting YA off the hook with a quick settlement that retains their reputation. Have YA provided FRR with the “insider” information on Hope and Co? It looks like that they might have been some collusion and hence YA have sold out Hope to retain their licence (if they lost the case – fit and proper rule would come in). However, if this is the case can or would you trust YA!
Talk of high stakes gambling by FRR and or Outrider - Winner takes all
Could explain the open MoU with BH as they would not go into a contract with a company that might not hold on to their big asset.
Could also explain the GG looking at FRR licence as hey company would have to inform the Government of a potential change of ownership (outrider). Note - the timings fit.
The delay with the second major announcement could also fit into this court case outcome – would a major want to get egg on their face announcing a deal if FRR do not win. Plus, Outrider will have a ready buyer of the block. High stakes indeed.
Phew FRR do not make life easy for a shareholder.
I pin my hope (and money) on FRR as they have seemed to have engineered this situation to gain a positive outcome. I may lose a six figure sum but ZaZa and Co. Will be down many many millions.
Seems that December will be a key month for us all.
Will it be bar humbug or ding dong merrily on high (SP).
I’m sticking around but if your of a nervous disposition I suggest you leave as this share is not for the feint hearted.

I agree it will/should be a formality but not totally up on Cayman judicial process.
As it is in judges chambers then the two sets of lawyers will be present and put their position, progress made and why they need more time. The judge will decide to grant an extension or set a hearing date.
It could be the case that they are working a settlement between parties and need more time (seems to be FRR way). Reading the other board it seems that our normal Cayman lawyers are on the other side. However, it seems that we have engaged heavyweights (more cost ☹). Hope the judge sees it our way or will he throw out (rider) all hope we have – I hope not.

From 400bpd to 98000 is quite a step up (91st to around 43rd in the world). This is without the gas too! The big difference to a oil major – low cost of recovery and a ready energy market on the doorstep (Turkey and Europe). A new oil pipeline to go with the rather large gas one already and waiting. To make this prediction they must have access to a lot of proven data and a nod that some major is about to spend billions to fill the pipe with high quality cheap to extract oil but I will settle for the first 10000pd next year till then. Note – it will take a couple of years to develop the field so timing is good. Do I remember someone with a yellow tie saying similar a couple of years ago whist Georgia said they had nothing.

So BH signs a very casual MoU with no values or potential just added costs and a vague indication of some recovery. Whereas a JV deal with indication of the true potential of FRR field would inflate the value of BH.
Is this a planned exercise by the BH senior mgt. Who would be privy to the divestment – it would be good to have a hot prospect to make them attractive to a potential buyer?
The plot thickens to everything around FRR.
The big question is has Bladey sold out to raise funds to buy BH? – good luck in the future Bladey.

Let's put some basic facts around the BHGE MoU. Many of my old colleagues raised their collective eyebrows at it. First they said if they have been working in the field and have access to the data and if it showed any promise then the deal would be more detailed and have an element of tie in and certainly a cost recovery guarantee against FRR. This MoU is to one sided and just allows BH to drill and develop the field at no risk to FRR. They say either they do not agree with the data (but that would stop them spending millions) or they are doing the work for someone else yet to be named. So are BH commercially stupid or is their much more to this than them taking a punt at this with a idk of nil return for he millions they are about to spend. The current only benefit to BH is that they are the ones getting their kit in place and hands dirty whilst others talk and hopefully agree a deal.

The history of FRR is that they tend to stoke the market with news prior to stock sell off’s. Look at the YA days of continuous selling and a number of minor FRR hypes to allow these to be shifted. I hope the tweet/s were/are not another one of theses to ensure someone offloads at a reasonable price. Or hold the price in a reasonable/agreed range?
BUT - Why tweet 2 week old news
Could ZaZa think that a super major agreeing that Georgia is a prime area to invest in was significant news weeks after the official announcement or was it prompted by news that the Exxon CEO has stated that they are in acquisition mode. Does 2+2 equal a FRR deal or are FRR taking advantage of the news to promote their assets “but why” when they have a O&G heavyweight already on side and close to a second. I doubt the Nomad would have prior wind of this as its already in public domain. Nomad is privy to the names of NDA signatures if one was Exxon then he would be miffed big time by the inferred association. Unless of course a RNS is about to be released on Thursday. Or is the other major not Exxon if not my money is on the Chinese as we have already a US presence in BHGE. The Chinese need energy sources and would love to stuff the Russians and take their EU business but they need the expertise of BHGE - big time.
ZaZa is no fool I have met him and after that I have increased my holding.
He will do a deal that is right for FRR and Georgia and we as SH’s remain bystanders so we may all be soon enjoying a Chinese takeaway.

The seller or more likely sellers is something we have lived with for several years and thy have been led by YA, Service providers, Shorters and a number (large) disgruntled PI’s and ii’s.
What we ar speculating is who, when and why when it makes little or no sense to LTH’s. I have discounted the BoD as they are legally bound to inform the market and auditors would also have to be notified.
What is staggering is the volume that has been disposed and absorbed by the market.
We can understand YA, shorters, disgruntled PI’s and service providers as they either that is their trading mode of operation or they need to raise funds to pay wages. We may have had some continually selling on any rise and buying some back at a lower price to do a rinse and repeat. The ii either are still holding or have expected a quicker return have lost patience and sold in regular lots not to kill the SP.
Lots of selling option any if not all are probable. I have discounted Outrider as we will soon know the outcome of their actions.
What we don’t know is who has and is buying of all these billions. In the early days of FoF we determined that 25% (2 Billion at the time) could not be accounted for. We suspected Georgian interests had these at the time as SN was doing the rounds with the CPR/NAS report.

Do we have a significant holder/s in the shadow I hope he has less that the compulsory purchase volume or we may all be disappointed at the offer price as they will try to base it on the market value of the company and average SP. So I hope w don’t see someone pop up with 4.5 billion shares in their back pocket. Best way to stop that is don’t sell and buy a few more.
GLA as this box is looks like it could start and overflow.

In real terms if BHGE can drill 10 deep wells then ZaZa’s target of 10,000 per year could be possible as early as May next year. This will prove the full commerciality of the field. Apart from a good shared revenue with BHGE a significant amount of oil can be booked as proven reserves (as good as cash in the bank). Additionally, with the 10K figure being reached the distribution logistics will be a full stretch so the plan for installation of a pipeline will be in full swing. I also think that a number of explority gas wells will be sunk and this will be the transnormal tipping point as these wells will prove NSA (o exceed) figures. I suspect that the major will be heavily involved in each stage of the drilling, testing and monetarising the true value of the field.
So IMO a price will not be set until mid next year but all of the work with BHGE and a major or two will be on a profit share until then. However, all of this will have a major positive effect on all of our fortunes. I doubt we will see the billions until then as I suspect the major will want to de-risk as much as they can and commence preparing for a full production campaign (this will be a multi billion commitment). The company value will jump in line with milestones achieved and the good news is that the majors will be setting these and not FRR.
I'm in for Moldova adventure as I will miss you lot.

Fulham John
I would like to apologise for my earlier post after reading Exuberance post and checking your sterling contribution on the other site.
I was taking the p*** of the Q guys and did not try to infer that there way only 5 readable posters on LSE when we all know they are six :-)

Sorry again

Puddy/toatie haven't got a clue what FJ wrote after I put him in the rubbish bin but nothing he could say would make any difference to an old oiler who had Aberdeen bosses who generally take no prisoners getting over their point. So a Fulham Johnny put down is not in the same league.

I hope they enjoy the emails they no doubt will get for evermore from get rich opportunities.

Still IMO we have not long to wait for more news and I agree with Devex that for ZaZa to issue the last RNS a deal in principle is in place and waiting for ratification inside the major boardroom/s.