Edās comments that he āwould refuse a Ā£50m cheque for all of SEEDās holdingsā and that he expected the market cap to catch up to NAV by the end of the yearā¦ doesnāt mean our NAV isnāt already at Ā£50m, based on Leap. We wonāt know until we see the audited holdings, but Leap doesnāt just jump from being worth Ā£10m to Ā£50m on one day. Itāll have been slowly growing in value behind the scenes, and the SP is still just miles off NAV. Iād be topping up if I had ANY funds leftā¦!
Yeh. And none of them are Ed. Ed has the experience to sell it, and has spent all year on their Board, and has said heād sell (which you canāt say was a trick to raise the SP because he isnāt phased when the SP temporarily lulls).
Iām already fully invested, so have no interest in suppressing the SP any longer, like some on here. Itās time we stop pretending how underpriced SEED is.
But thatās the point, Fatman. Weāve seen how successful the various players can be (inside and outside SEED)ā¦ and weāve seen that Ed is prepared to invest his time this year on Leapās board + ā¬450k of our dwindling funds. That suggests to me that they have EVEN MORE confidence in generating returns from Leap than from our staple CBD portfolio - which will be very successful in their own rights.
Weāve had Leapās results posted here before. You can buy them for a few quid. Exceptā¦ as Ed has said at interview, the Fralis structure is more complicated than that. The only relevance is what weāre worth to IMG, and how convinced they are by fake threats of an IPO.
Lorneās mum could have sold for any number of reasons. My suspicion was that she was buying into Peridot, shortly after Edās appointment to its Board and the name change from Verditeā¦ with a view to Peridot picking up 20% of SEED after the price has been crashed.
If the market gets things right, why could you buy SEED for < 6p a few months back, when it was known NAV was at least twice that.
Imagine if Leap was only worth Ā£50mā¦ It would then have been extremely hard to value SEEDās holding at c. Ā£10m in the audited accounts last year. It would have been much lower, due to the uncertainty and contingencies on other parties.
Since then, Edās put a lot of time in at Board level, and SEED have put more cash in. This is value that auditors wouldnāt have recognised last March; it is also a sign of SEEDās faith this is all worthwhile. Similarly, the market M&A activity, and deepening relationship with IMG . (Donāt forget inflation has risen too!)
Iād be happy to agree on āsomewhere between Ā£50m and Ā£100māā¦
Do you really think weāll invest anywhere before selling LEAP? I posted this on 25th Nov. If I were Ed, I wouldnāt want to be selling a 47% stake in a Ā£100m asset without a few hundred grand in the bank for legal contingencies. Thus, I think weāll sell soon.
āWe had Ā£2m on 22nd Sept, and running costs of c. Ā£70k/month. So, from mid Sept to end of Nov, that's Ā£210k running costs, Ā£150k on SW Brands and Ā£390k on Leap. So, we've spent Ā£750k of Ā£2m. That's not a lot of headroom left... which some might think suggests a HUGE LIQUIDITY EVENT must be on the cards soon. In three months time, Ed will have less than Ā£1m in the bank for disasters / contingencies. I think we'll see movement before that point...ā
Longlad - are you sure? Looked to me like the original 100k was shown as a sell, but is actually a buy... then the order has been topped up: 100k switched for 200k; then 200k switched for 450k; finally 450k switched for 525k after hours... but all listed at the original trade time?? It feels like someone is accumulating at a similar speed to when Rhonda got out, with similar MM support.
Ahh Fatman, you are just the worst. You have consistently talked about Edās underperformance (based on misquotes) and how SP will drop further. Why havenāt you sold, then? You can always come back once weāre in the 4s, which you think is inevitable - although I doubt any real holders would miss you.
I know half the posts here are intended to be irritating misinformation, but Iām SO BORED of people misquoting Ed and using it as a stick to beat him with.
Iām not saying heās doing a good job, but at no point has he said share price will be 23p by yearend. He was pressured to answer an interview question about valuation by yearend (could be Dec or March), which was intended to make him reveal timings of the Leap sale. His response was that while he couldnāt give anything away, he wouldnāt swap SEEDās holdings at yearend for a Ā£50m cheque. It was not a stupid remark for him to make. As Iāve said before, if IMG value Leap at Ā£75m and buy us out, it pretty much takes us to NAV of Ā£50m.
I donāt know why people interpret āyearendā as calendar year, not financial year - which is relevant for tax and reporting.
Oh come on, O'Donnells. We're all trying to find something positive to say, and you're throwing out double negatives?!
Maybe it is just total pony until New Year, but as my Pa used to say: "don't hit the pony; hit the dusty old trail or hit the hay".
So in Bambi, when Thumper was saying "if you can't say something nice, don't say..."
...do you think this is what he was expecting?? Did nobody have anything at all nice to say today?!
(*n.b. I'm counting this as nice)