Member Info for reefles

Hello DaPro! I was just having a look too. Half of me is really pleased for the fund, that we're still buying back at less than 50% of the NAV/share. The other half of me is jealous of whoever has been tasked with running the buy back on a daily basis.

You're a junior analyst and you get a bonus if you can hit your targets. You've got until February to try and get an avg. lower than 4p. "Analyst's log, day four. Got out of bed. Bought another 650k shares - with 10% headroom before I needed to worry about the price. Sent a tweet to Ed to say his hair looked cool. Can't decide what to do next - hookers or blow"

Thank you, Sammy Valley. You’re right, you’re right. I think it is just the hangover (and not understanding the people selling at < 4p) making me lose faith today. It is a big opportunity, still. We have cash, nobody else does. Everything is at half price in the market - we’re positioned better than most for growth.

…but I do want to buy a houseboat and live among the riverfolk, and the options are looking narrower and narrower.

I hardly ever talk Seed down. I’ve traded badly but have always let everyone know I’ve got about 550k shares at c. 8p and some direct CLNs in Northern Leaf (from the raise as when FFWD bought in)

WHAT IS HAPPENING?! Seed have said they’ll buy back £850k of shares, basically at a price between 4p and 6p… by Feb 2024. People are selling at 3.5.

Northern Leaf is valued at £55m after £30m of capital has been put in. They’re doing an IPO to raise £6.5m in exchange for 25% shares, and a big chunk of that is broker fees. WHY?

NL is worth £55m+. They do not seem to understand finance, but know how to grow green. Why Seed doesn’t just pick up 25% for £6m blows my mind. What better investment?? None. If we leave the cash as cash, inflation and BoD fees whittle it away. Also, if we do nothing, Seed’s stake in NL will be valued at 50% of what it should be.

I don’t normally lose my cool with Seed but… pfft. This last week. It really does feel like a large holder has said: “Ed, mate, I’ve been underwater for years. I was in at 15p. I can’t sell at 1.7p. Can’t you liquidate a few investments and find a way to buy my holding back at - say - 4p a share…?”

Obvs you’d expect an RNS if it were Mellon, or even Leckerfecker, but something doesn’t feel right about SP tanking below an - essentially guaranteed - buyback price.

I am hung over, like. Oh - and NL shareholders are being locked in for a year on IPO, too, so that’s ace.

Huh huh... funny.

Just a tip of the cap to our sheep allies, helping to restrict supply and boost the valuation of the portfolio's assets...

https://news.sky.com/story/herd-of-sheep-eats-100kg-of-cannabis-in-greece-after-storm-daniel-floods-12969680

Haha - thanks Dagsy. I was just about to respond in some way to the silly statement from Mat d'or, but I couldn't face it.

Like... a reminder that the buyback has benefits in relation to NAV, not just short term SP, and that it strips out a bunch of shares from the market so price rises will be quicker in future... and so it would be pretty ironic if the SP had shot up to 6p on announcement of the buyback, as Seed then wouldn't have been able to buy any.

So far, it looks like they've bought back some decent chunks < 4p, which is really good news. If the average for the buyback is capped at 4p and the max is 6p, then starting out under 4p means there's headroom to keep buying as the price rises.

Haha - I'm confused now. Was half of that message to me and half to Mat d'or??

I was just saying hello because I was happy to see you. You often seem to appear as good things are happening... and who's to say whether that's cause or effect!

(I was also welcoming Marcus, who I think IS new, because it made me chuckle to hear someone discussing Seed without the years of angst...)

I think we came in at about the same time. I caught the last couple of months of FFWD. I remember it too well. I was listening to a mining podcast where Andrew Monk mentioned how ridiculously underpriced FFWD was, and that Leap alone was worth more than the mcap. Over the next few weeks I sold up all my holdings in mining / excavation and ploughed the whole lot into FFWD then SEED... before realising Monk and Mellon were old College mates and Lorne was crooked and the market was about to collapse. But, move on?!? No thank you, amigo! (I thought I'd been about the most positive person on the BB after Dagsy, lately.) It IS good to see you, though! Just saying.

Haha - well mid market was 4p for literally 4 minutes. It's a start! Nothing moves in a straight line...

(Whoop!)

Hallo DaPro...! Always nice to see you here.

...and welcome to Marc-spud. You might detect a bit of a Wild West Saloon vibe here, but you could to dig out some FFWD charts / read a few of the posts on here about discounts to NAV etc.

If there were some way to force the BOD to sell off the whole portfolio and pay everything out as a dividend, I'd be very happy indeed. I mean... they're basically halfway there already!

Kingsley - I've calculated it based on the buyback hitting both maxima, i.e. buying 21,250,000 for £850,000 (which gives an average bang on 4p with no decimals).

NAV currently stands at 7.65p (assuming the team have incurred £400k of running costs since the end of March).

This is made up of Avextra at £2,552k (our remaining holding uplifted by 2%) + Juvanescecne at £2,556 + Clean Food Group at £965k + Northern Leaf at £960k + LGP at £715k + Inveniam at £596k + Portage at £94k (all of these from March valuation) + OTO at £496k (per RNS). Total holdings = £8,914k.

There's a bit of upside, because I haven't bothered to add accrued interest on some convertible loan notes in there.

Cash = £14k net opening position + £5,106 from Leap + £2,450 Avextra + £184k from SW Brands - £400k running costs for April to September (probably lower in reality, as previous costs will have been inflated by Leap fees). Total = £7,354

Net assets = £16,268k before buyback, with 212,747,395 shares in circulation, i.e 7.65p per share.

Net assets = £15,418 *after* buyback, with 191,497,395 shares in circulation, i.e. 8.05p per share.

My current average... almost exactly 8.05p per share.

(I should have added that accrued interest in to make myself feel better!)

Yeah ok... when we're talking 5 / 10x returns, then i'm with you 100%.

the buyback is capped at average of just under 4p, i.e. about half NAV / share, so it's like getting a 100% return on the outlay in 6 months. that looked pretty good to me, compared to the likes of avextra...

...but yes. ideally we'd be targeting a few where we could get 10x return in 3-4 years instead. hmm. i didn't think this board was intended for learning anything / compromise. apologies all for the poor form. i promise next time i'll dig my heels in and get angry about any other opinions.

Okey dokes. obviously you can believe what you wish. i would have thought a higher nav / share would increase share price, but it isn't a guarantee... and to be fair, i would never have expected seed to be trading at the discount to nav it currently is.

on the other hand, we've got plenty of liquidity as it is, and a number of liquidity events on the horizon, i.e. northern leaf IPO in mid november.

i don't want this to turn into a row or owt, but i'm feeling pretty optimistic about seed right now is all

baggie - i'm trying to think of a way of saying this that doesn't make me sound like a ******. i'm trying not to be, but... you do appreciate how the share buyback works, right?

it isn't about handing money to recent buyers, it increases the nav / share because there are fewer shares in circulation, and seed is in a position to do this at a discount to nav. it's win-win. those who want to sell will get a better price, and those who hold will have a higher nav / share that should be realised in the future.

if there were just 10 shares in circulation, with an sp of £1, equal to nav / share, there's a total nav of £10 and mcap of £10. if 3 of these are bought back at market value using the company's assets, the nav drops to £7 but there are only 7 shares. sp stays at £1, mcap and nav drop to £7. nothing changes.

now, if you can do that while the mcap is at a huge discount to nav, you get yourself a massive win.

sorry - i'm sure everyone understood that already, but before we run away with the idea of paying flipper, let's just make sure.

Baggie - I put that as feedback: "show don't tell". It was at least half a dozen times that the hard work was referred to (three times in one sentence), but nobody had bothered to put a decent report together on the likes of Northern Leaf.

Haha - and I also picked up on the "nobody's fault". It took longer than we thought... which is nobody's fault. Well - it's the fault of whoever was doing the thinking, innit.

I thought the meeting was pretty limp, but I'm hugely bullish about Seed and I like the team. Has Ed had highlights done? What a pretty CEO he is. That's got to count for something.

What’re you on about? This new boy, Lloyd, wouldn’t be here without a reason - he’s just using tricks to ensure he can buy in big without overpaying. Look at today’s trades. It’s all below the counter so the SP isn’t taking off like an untethered balloon, but “someone” has scooped up £27k of shares while letting the price drop. All those round number trades will be brokers filling this. Obvs a Buy, as done at 3.6p

The facts: an experienced investor in the industry has just taken a position so large it needs declaring, and it appears they’re increasing that / someone else is trying to match them. It’s AIM, so the MMs are playing around, but why would anyone sell right now when demand clearly outstrips supply?! Just be patient for a day of two, or experienced brokers will pull your pants down…

There's still protection for minority shareholders, however that proposal is approved, so I don't think it would allow the board to breach their fiduciary responsibilities even if it was resolved at an AGM.

Like, they can't put in a board proposal that they are suddenly licensed to kill, right?

Nice show of confidence in Seed. He's also a sizeable holder in Chill.

...Ed did say he would find a significant holder. (I'm quite pro-Ed, but it's interesting to see how much has happened since Alfresco's promotion. All of it good.)

@oldbutt - didn't see that, but there was a great piece on the Today Programme this morning. Poor family spending £1,600 a month on oils for their son, who is functional with treatment but otherwise having hundreds of seizures per day. Huge appeals to make medicine more readily available, i.e. empowering doctors to prescribe.

Thanks Fatma and J2.3k - that makes me feel better. I got about 550k shares at 8p and wasn’t in a great position to average down. It was painful seeing people pick up the same for £10k a few months ago.

Haven’t done a NAV calc in a while, but it’s probably 8p or more at the moment.

I should get a nice payout from Northern Leaf soon, so might put that straight back into Seed! You can’t grow a giant beanstalk without some magic Seed.

...simply lovely.