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accipiter
What share buy back.

Pure:
I have no idea why this share is at 3p. Anyone explain why it is at 3p?

Me, I am estimating after results it should be 15p.

@Tiggerman, Sadly will not be able to make it. My investment for the moment is under water as I am a late comer. That is why I rechecked my figures. After seeing how much ore Newcrest mine at Telfer, 20 million tons, I am now more certain than ever that this share will at least double and possibly quadruple.

Havieron, 20 million tons extracted at 3 g/t is 60 tons of gold, which is £2.4 billion pounds. GGP's share £600 million. Enjoy your'e day at the Stag,

Thordon the prices you have listed are accountancy values for estimating future reserves. These are just guesses for accountancy purposes. Todays prices are what 2021 profits will be based on. That list will be ripped up next year.

When things do not happen as expected self doubt sets in. So the best thing to do is to revisit your assumptions. Trying to compare Telfer current mine production to Havieron to get an idea of what Havieron will give Newcrest.

Telfer 2019 gold production is 14 KTons with a head grade of 0.68g/t. The amount of ore mined to achieve this amount of gold is approx 20Mtons. The numbers are massive. The grade is below 1g/t so you need to mine lots of ore. 4 millions tons of Havieron ore at 3g/t will give almost 14Ktons. The higher grades 6, 8, 13 will of course be the prime targets. They could quite easily double/triple gold production at Telfer. These guys are desperate to get in as Telfer is living on a diet of 0.68 g/t.

This project will go ahead, even if it is for the high grade targets. Once in they will of course not stop. Now, it is just a waiting game. In the beginning the production targets will of course be higher.

https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2019-11/190725_Newcrest%20June%202019%20Quarterly%20Report.pdf

I see Serinus as a pandemic play. They got hammered with the oil price drop in 2020. They have implemented a debt for share swap and now have no debt. 2019, 2020 and now starting in 2021, they have increased production. Costs per BOE is reduced by a mixture of management and production increases. I am estimating that this year revenues will be greater than $40 million and profit in excess of $10 million. Their may be something more serious that I am not seeing but their business model seems safe and low risk.

Their MC is 39 million, I estimate a profit of 10 million. Roughly a third of MC. I am estimating current earnings of 1p per share. A P/E of 5 will give Serinus a value of 5p a share. I think the figure is closer to 10p a share and even higher. Need to see how many wells they can add this year.

In the early years a business model like Serinus can grow very fast. A couple of wells can double production and therefore revenue. To keep growing they have to keep doubling the wells or add larger producing wells. We are at the ground floor so Serinus could double for the net 2 - 3 years.

Looking at the 2020 results.
2019 BOE/D 1,389
2020 BOE/D 2340
2021 New well added and already connected M1008 adding 666 BOE/D

Revenue 2019, 24 million
Revenue 2020 - 24 million - 40% drop in prices.

2021. So far 25% increase in production with 40% restoration in prices could see revenue of
24 * 1.25 * 1.4 == 42.
A profit of 10 million is not unrealistic.
A couple more wells added to their network a potential revenue of 50 - 60 million is not unrealistic. The share price is only going up.

DYOR

Not sure.

Charlie1984 I am correct Serinus is debt free?

Take my simple revenue calculation when I opened this thread. This year SENX revenue could be 60 million with a profit of 30 million. Technically SENX could payout a dividend equal to its MC. How crazy is that.

Reading through the Accounts and projects SENX within a couple of years could increase its revenue to 200 million with today's oil prices. They have infrastructure in place in Romania and Tunisia to cheaply add productive wells. 5 x revenues means potentially a 1 billion dollar company. That is a 30 fold increase in share price. That would give a share vale of 90p a share. What an opportunity, 10 fold increase is a conservative outlook.

Newcrest seem to be accelerating their investment in Havieron. The reaction when Havieron is mentioned and how they talk about Havieron suggests they know something. I doubt the Board and its CEO would get the general mining industry and their own investors excited about Havieron unless it was special. Telling the top investors that you gave Greatland 50 mill loan for red dirt would be very embarrassing.

Not very scientific I know,

Looking at the charts it has bottomed. Very unlikely to drop any lower. I can see it raising over the next few years. Its P/E will start moving towards it peers.

Not often in at the bottom.

2020 revenue was 24 million. 2021 prices have more than double so no changes in production should see revenue of 48 million.
Company is now debt free.
Production should also increase so potential revenue around 60 million for 2021?

The company is values at 36 million. I think this share needs a bit of patience. 9 by next year is not unrealistic.

This estimate is just for Havieron? Does not include Juri and Scallywag? It seems Scally wag is very similar to Havieron.

GGP are slightly above what I paid which is all that matters and what has GGP got to do with this?
Ghana may be the safest place in West Africa.
Risk is up to each investor. If it pays off you will be well rewarded.
Me there are plenty of other fish in the sea.

Just a general google search. Ghana increased on the terrorism index. Ghana is close to Burkina Faso. For me their is a risk. Maybe I am being overly cautious. Maybe why this share is cheap.

Looking at various miners. I will not invest because the security threat in this area is increasing. My entire investment could be wiped out in an afternoon. So many other variables to worry about. Security is a big variable.

Watching the Australian gold programs on TV it seems vast of amounts of gold is recovered by just scratching the surface. It makes you wonder how much in under ground. I am guessing Western Australia is like an ice berg. The magnetic anomalies maps from various sources seem to so that western austrialia is one giant magnetic anomaly. With the surface gold just the tip of a massive gold berg. Paddy and Bamps21, thanks for all the info. Very interesting as I am learning lots.

Seems these guys will be doing media content for normal TV and streamers. There is a massive demand for content. Get it right and you can make billions. Lots are and will be making content. Content will of course need lots of studios, production facilities. Netflix expanding production in UK, now these guys. I would say it is good for ITV production arm.

Streaming is the future. There will be a c

The political class will never stop printing money. It is the only trick the entire western elite have left. Print now and let the next bunch of morons sort it out. I have total confidence that we will see multiple rounds of QE. They may invent new names for it. The media will wheel on economists who will tell us that the Government is do the right thing. Labour will tell us the Government is not printing enough.

Liberalism is about a global economy where the third world is raised to our levels. A lot easier to lower the first world to the same as the third world.